George001

938… holy shit

Yeah that’s ugly

Yeah the modeled jet stream configuration in early December is typical for stronger ninos.

Yeah idk what the whole Nina background state nonsense is about. All guidance has the southern jet strengthening in early December. That doesn’t happen in Ninas, this is a strong El Niño pattern.

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super.

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

I’m not entirely sure what I’m looking at here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but the forcing is the blue and purple right? Basically blue and purples = El Niño forcing, and you would expect more purple and for the blue and purple area to be more expansive in stronger events? The forcing looks to be weaker than 97 and 82, but it isn’t weak. It’s definitely farther west, but it’s stronger than 02 and 09.

I agree with Snowman here, and would agree with Tony in the scenario you mentioned. Even 7 days out is iffy, we monster blizzards 7 days out disappearing all the time in winter. On the other hand, some of our biggest blizzards were complete whiffs or inland runners 7 days out. The modeled blocking doesn’t show up until what 9-10 days out? You know it’s going to change a lot for better or worse, so why shouldn’t we be asking why it could be wrong?

That’s a great point. The guidance that is forecasting the big -NAO is 10+ days out. It’s always good to take any pattern on the models more than like 5 days out with a grain of salt. The models just aren’t accurate that far out. I also was on the +NAO torch December train. I am sticking to that forecast for now, if the big -NAO is still there 5 days out then I’ll have to reassess.

If it was Feb and the models looked like this I would be going big. In early December I’m betting on climo, the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, the -PDO, and the raw strength of the nino winning out. December typically sucks in coastal SNE especially during ninos. Even in our good stronger ninos, we got hit in Jan-Feb not Dec.

That said, those same extremely mild atlantic SSTs will help juice up storms. That could pay off during the heart of winter if the pattern is favorable enough. Definitely seems to be a boom or bust factor with climate change. I’m not very optimistic about this winter, but if I’m wrong it’s probably going to be Jan-Feb we get rocked, not Dec. Generally that is the case in El Niños, especially stronger ones like this one.

Trough over Alaska. I don’t like seeing that, makes me concerned that it won’t be cold enough. Is it possible that my concerns end up being overblown and I end up with a foot of snow by mid-late December? Yeah, but I don’t think that is likely. Hopefully the trough over Alaska ends up being west and weaker than that. That’s a valid point though, it’s not digging into the west coast like last year. The issue is marginal events straight up don’t work in December anymore. Not with those Atlantic SSTs, I would honestly rather see this pattern in mid March than early December. It’s not even that the pattern sucks, I’m kind of nitpicking. It’s just too early. It’s a good pattern, not a perfect one, and with the mild atlantic SSTs we need just about perfect.

This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January. I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern.

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

It could work out, but I heard the same things last December. I fell for it and bought in last time, I’m not falling for it this time. Especially with the really warm ocean temps im not expecting much of anything for my area in December. Yes it’s a strong nino and not a Nina, but strong ninos especially -PDO ones have their own set of issues.

some of these maps being posted look like last years December pattern. I like seeing the -NAO, but I’m not buying in unless the pacific cooperates. Just not cold enough

Agree, I consider 09-10 to be strong. What’s interesting is if you are using MEI, last winter would be considered a strong Nina and 2010-2011 would be considered super.

Huh I always thought it was 3 months. That’s why I considered 72-73 and 65-66 to be super, not strong.

Paul Roundy was right. I’m not quite there yet, but I’m getting very close to jumping back on the super nino train.

All 4 Enso regions are above 1.5, and 2 of them are above 2.0. That should not be overlooked.

We are already starting to see the strong STJ showing up on the models, and the SOI reflects a high end strong El Niño. I don’t think it will officially be a super peak, but regardless this El Niño is very powerful and it’s strength should not be overlooked. Say what you want about Paul Roundy, but he has been more right than wrong about the evolution of this event. Most forecasts were calling for a weak-moderate event, and Paul Roundy was saying this would be a big one as early as March. I would go as far as saying the raw strength of this El Niño just about eliminates any coupling concerns come wintertime.

Looks like we are right on par with 1965-1966 for El Niño strength.

Yep that’s weather for ya, any forecast 2 weeks out is going to change multiple times. Hell, even a week is a long time in weather.

It’s not even that the pattern is super unfavorable or anything, it’s just meh. An typical November pattern, nothing special. And climo for November (even late November) doesn’t support snow outside the far interior and elevations. You basically need everything to be perfect to snow at this time of year.

Yeah im not really buying any of these threats. Just too early, the 540 line in Canada isn’t gonna cut it.