George001

Yeah snowman19 absolutely knows his shit, he just likes warmer weather.

My mid Dec update is that I am not excited about the pattern for the rest of the month for 2 reasons. One, the parade of storms entering the pacific northwest favors a storm track is NW of the region. The second reason is it is simply too warm. No matter how much blue there is at 500mb, the surface is still AN on the long range guidance. Last year’s abomination of a “winter” taught me that no matter how “good” the pattern looks at 500mb, if there isn’t any cold air it won’t lead to snow. It’s really that simple, the #1 ingredient for east coast blizzards is true arctic air. If we don’t have that, we are threading the needle or hoping for a very low probability outcome. It’s possible we sneak in a couple of inches with the follow up deal after the massive inland runner, but the pattern doesn’t really support anything more than a minor event there, and even that is going to be tough to get. The whole relying on storms to create their own cold air thing just isn’t going to cut it, especially in December when the SSTs are extremely mild. That’s why I haven’t been posting much here this month, I’m not jumping on board until I see sustained (1+ week) -5 or lower anomalies on the models. By mid Jan, that reduces to -3 to -2. In late Jan- mid Feb, normal temps with north based atlantic blocking is good enough. If I see that on the models, I will become a lot more optimistic. For now though, it is a typical strong/super nino December pattern. Overall, I would say based on how things have gone the past few weeks and what the extended guidance shows, im expecting we get shut out for the rest of the month. Even the last week of Dec, the pattern does not look good. However, there are some interesting things happening in the stratosphere. That is the main reason I’m not sounding the alarms for a total rat. The forecasted weakening of the polar vortex looks to be for real. Based on previous polar vortex events, I’m expecting an unfavorable pattern for a couple weeks after the disruption. This would take us to mid January. I said that if we get to early Jan with nothing promising on the horizon it’s time to panic, and I stand by that since by then we will know more about how this polar vortex event will play out. Hopefully the polar vortex cooperates and doesn’t go to the other side of the globe.

I’m headed up to Jay peak soon so I’m happy to see this.

Those songs have been around for a long long time. They were written during a time when the climate was cooler than it is now. That’s not cycles, it’s climate change. It makes sense, as our climate continues to warm the month that will suffer most is the winter month that is most marginal to begin with (December). When I see Atlantic ocean temps well AN like this December, im not expecting much.

It’s going to be super. It’s a when, not if.

I would take that and run. Get the best patterns during peak climo. Part of the issue with last year is when we had our “best” patterns we were fighting climo, while the heart of winter was a massive torch. Punting December isn’t ideal, but I see anything we get in December as a bonus. Punting January is really really bad.

Based on the latest data, ONI will probably peak right around 2.0 (super).

We should not ban posters who have different opinions. Some of us legitimacy believe that this will be a mild winter. I want us to get 100 inches of snow this year with a historic blizzard every week, but I don’t want to read a posts supporting that viewpoint. Objectivity is important, and without the skeptics all we will have is a bunch of cheerleaders for snow. I strongly believe that the skepticism that posters like qqomega is necessary. Sometimes we get mild winters, and we get mild patterns even in good winter. It’s ok to acknowledge that things don’t look great right now on the models. Again, I want it to snow but I’m not going to ignore the models if they aren’t showing what I want to see. There are several concerning signals such as the strength of the El Niño (1.8 trimonthly ONI for SON, likely hasn’t peaked yet), the -PDO, the raging pac jet currently in place, the current storm track, and the mild Atlantic SSTs. Those are real concerns that could derail winter and lead to a second straight ratter. However, there are also a couple of favorable signals. The polar vortex is expected to significantly weaken on the models, and while the nino is stronger than we would like to see, it is strengthening in the western regions. Over the past month it shifted from east based to basinwide. If it becomes west based, that could result in a more favorable outcome in January and February. The way I see it, there are more negative than positive signals right now so qqomegas concern is valid. Hopefully the positives end up outweighing the negatives.

That winter was a once in a lifetime event. Statistically it is extremely unlikely it will happen again, but I am thankful that I had the chance to experience that. The old George that loved severe blizzards is not gone. I still love the cold and snow, I’m just not going to be expecting a blizzard for every shortwave that enters the CONUS. That just isn’t a realistic expectation. If there is a blizzard on the on the short range guidance with strong cross guidance support, I’m going to be all over it.

I don’t agree. The guidance constantly delaying the pattern change usually means it’s not going to happen. If we are still seeing storms entering the Pacific Northwest by then and the PDO is still solidly negative, I’m not going to be optimistic. I haven’t even written winter off yet. I also think that people panicking and writing winter off because December looks warm are jumping the gun. Like you said, in El Niño you lose Dec. That’s the way it goes even in good nino winters. I do think this winter will show its hand by early Jan. Does that mean if we don’t get buried as soon as the calendar flips winter is doomed? No, but if the background state (-PDO, unfavorable MJO, storms entering the Pacific Northwest) doesn’t improve and the guidance over the next 2 weeks is showing a sea of warmth, that’s not good.

2014-2015 is an extreme anomaly. Yes ninos are backloaded, but in good nino winters you punt Dec. You do not punt Dec and Jan. In Jan 2015, the pattern was bad early on but there were promising signs and an extremely favorable background state (raging +PDO, weak El Niño). It hasn’t happened yet, but kicking the can is usually a sign that it’s not going to happen. The timeframe being talked about is early Jan, if things look good by then I’ll get excited, if not then I’m writing off winter as a dud. By looking good it doesn’t necessarily mean immediate snow. If we have a cold pattern inside 7 days by like Jan 5th despite not having any snow on the ground, good. If we have no snow AND warmth is dominating the long range guidance, I don’t see how you can objectively look at how things are going and NOT be concerned.

Fair enough, but we aren’t kicking the can this winter. If things look good by then and we have an event on the horizon, then I’ll be excited. If we get to early Jan with nothing on the horizon then its time to write winter off as a rat. I don’t think that’s too unreasonable.

Yep, that’s the way it goes in El Niño. In La Nina’s, you lose February. In Ninos, you lose December. The timeframe I am hearing on several sub forums is late Dec-early Jan. If we get skunked in early Jan and there is nothing on the horizon, then it’s time to panic and call for a ratter. We won’t truly know until then what this winter is made of.

Uh oh, Torch Tiger is excited. That’s a telltale sign that the models trended unfavorably.

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded.

That said, even if we do get a -NAO, I’m pumping the breaks until I see significant improvements in the pacific. That’s my biggest concern for the coastal plain Dec-Jan, that the pacific is so hostile that even if the -NAO forces some slow moving bombs underneath, it will be more wet than white.

The implication on later in the season is the part that interests me. Even if the NAO is negative for the reasons you mentioned I am leaning mild, but if we do get blocking in Jan-Feb that could derail my winter outlook (called for a big +NAO in Jan-Feb). Im not abandoning my forecast and jumping on board with a snowier winter just yet. However, as someone who is trying to become a more objective poster, I have to acknowledge that the latest polar polar vortex guidance is pretty much the opposite of what I expected to see.

It started as east based but is now basinwide.

Yeah, reading your outlook we are on the same page about the strength of the El Niño. It could be a bit stronger, but I don’t think it matters too much. It’s not going to be 2015-2016 or 1997-1998 strong, it’s going to be more 1965-1966 to 1972-1973 strong. I hear a lot of talk about the forcing, but I question how big of a driver it truly is on our temp profiles compared to the raw strength of the nino and -PDO. The plot that Raindance showed earlier of snowfall totals in Boston during El Niño winters for varying PDO values shows a clear correlation. I haven’t seen anything like that about the relationship between VP forcing and eastern US temps.

That’s true, he did say there would be a window. Hopefully we can cash in when the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month.

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter.

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

It’s possible, but betting on dynamics to overcome a marginal airmass is a losing proposition more often than not. The return rate for these marginal types of events is much lower than it is when we have a better airmass in place. The problem is a stronger more phased storm will be more tucked, and draw in more mild air. There is a window where it’s just phased enough to dynamically cool the column but also not so phased the low tucks in to much, but that window is very small.

With the December Atlantic ssts I need to see surface temps in the mid to upper 20s before jumping on board. Marginal events do not work for us in December. When you have marginal thermal profiles at this time of year, take the under on those 10:1 maps. That said, I’m glad ski areas are getting hit.

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area.