George001

Idk I and some others were concerned about the super nino driven pac jet flooding the country with warmth combined with the well AN ssts near the coast. That’s why I said +4 to +5 AN for winter in my forecast with 20-30 inches of snow.

Fair enough, If we finish like +2 AN or something and still end up below 20 inches at BOS, it would imply we got some bad luck in a favorable Feb-Mar pattern. Since we are +5 right now, it would need to cool down quite a bit in Feb and Mar to prevent this season from ending up a full blown torch like last winter.

I’m going to disagree that temps haven’t been an issue. BOS finished Dec around +5 and Jan so far has been around +5 as well. That’s a bad pattern, it has been 5 weeks of garbage and a 1 week favorable window.

Honestly I think Boston’s looking at another ratter (below 20 inches). The MJO is going into the warm phases and the blocking is breaking down. Yeah we got unlucky with this favorable window, but this winter so far has been 5 weeks of well AN temps and 1 week of a favorable pattern that we whiffed on, and then it is going to get warm again. I hope I’m wrong, but it has been a complete non winter so far, +5 AN temps and well below normal snow. The only winter that started this poorly and ended up good was 2012-2013, and it took a historic blizzard to do that.

For a bit I thought Bos had a decent shot to sneak over 40 inches, but they are looking cooked now.

It cannot be a respectable winter with well AN temps, below normal snow, and no retention when we do get storms. It has been a long time since we had a month straight of snowcover.

This entire winter has been a furnace, and now we are looking at yet another warmup after the 20th threat leaves a lot on the table. Maybe we can avoid a total rat with a better pattern in Feb/Mar, but let’s call it like it is. So far, the Pope has been right about this winter. We need some changes FAST for 1/20 to salvage this, if that is meh we aren’t getting anywhere near average snowfall. He deserves an apology.

Maybe not, but you can’t punt both Dec and Jan and still end up with a respectable winter.

Yeah, it’s not looking good. Gfs and Canadian took a step back, and we lost the Navy. We couldn’t really afford that for a big solution. Im going to give it a few more days just in case it comes back, but if we don’t get at least a decent event by then I am out on this winter (if you can even call it that, it’s basically been November the past 2 and a half months).

You aren’t wrong, but the margin of error is fairly large (around 200 miles 5 days out IIRC). If there is large scale agreement that the storm is headed towards Bermuda, that’s outside the margin of error and therefore it makes sense to say we arent getting shit. However, this storm is fairly close. It’s about 100 miles SE of where I’d like it to be, but you and I both are in a good spot for these types of storms. I’d be more worried if I was west and inland for this setup.

It nailed the last event where inland areas got buried, but typically it has a SE bias. It’s usually not correct, but a good rule of thumb is when the Navy is more amped than other guidance, it’s a big red flag. It’s basically the opposite of the Canadian (amped bias).

Big runs tonight. Gfs is close to something big which is good, but I would like the Canadian and Euro to jump on board. Also can’t afford to lose the Navy

It’s not over yet, but we can’t afford any more steps back if we want the 20th threat to become a big one.

It has a higher verification score than the gfs

Yeah it can snow a hell of a lot in 12-18 hours

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted.

Good NW lean, though I would like to see more 980s and 970s on future runs.

Yep, seeing it offshore 4 days out was a good thing for this setup. Can’t be living and dying by every run. North trend isn’t done either

Hopefully that changes and the models are underestimating the amplitude of the ridge.

Eh, I would give this winter an F- grade so far because it’s been so warm. Fortunately it looks like the pattern is going to be changing for the better. To get above a D, we need at least a solid month straight of snowcover.

Yeah it’s too early to give up

Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to negative posts about the pattern when it’s justified. I was bitching a lot about the pattern myself in December, but we have cold air now and something to track. The way I see is get the cold first, and usually snow will follow. This is a much higher probability event than having to rely on dynamic cooling and storms to create their own cold air.

This event went to shit? It’s still 4 days out…. Models do this every storm, if anything you want to be a bit SE of the heaviest snows in guidance this far out.

We’ve seen storms move hundreds of miles NW inside of 2 days, never mind 4. The models always go back and forth, it was NW, now it’s SE, and it will probably go back NW. Will it go back to the full blown blizzard we saw a couple days ago on that gfs run? Doubt it, but it’s really not far from being a solid moderate event. I’d rather be on the southern edge rooting for a storm to come north than the other way around.