George001

Are you rooting for it to come more north?

Blue cross blue shield

Idk if you are being serious or not, but I looked into it a bit and I actually think dialectical behavioral therapy would significantly improve my quality of life. The not so small fees are gonna be a pain in the ass, but unlike the Red Sox, I’m willing to spend money. I think I’m going to take you up on this.

I’m gonna say it, you are an insufferable asshat. I have a serious problem with your attitude, real internet tough guy over here talking talking about my “intellect limitations”. Why don’t you say it to my fucking face huh? Let’s settle this once and for all like they did in the old days. I challenge you to a duel, I’ll DM you the address and let’s find a time to meet up that works best for both of our schedules.

Having a different way of grading how good a pattern is makes me dumb? All this talk about the pattern is just dancing around what the real problem is, which is CC. It’s not just bad luck, you even said it yourself. You are the guy who’s always talking about the speed of the flow being a limiting factor, and the role CC plays in it. So patterns that worked in the past no longer work. I’m probably oversimplifying things, but that’s what I got out of your posts. If it makes me stupid to question whether or not we had a favorable pattern when the temp anomalies for the winter are roughly +4 so far makes me stupid, then yeah I guess I’m dumb as shit. I prefer to look at the big picture rather than the smaller details.

I don’t disagree with any of this.

Ok…. You know what? I think we are just focused on different things. It’s not just the lack of snow, it’s the AN temps that are an issue for me. Ok, let’s say things broke right and I got a blizzard today. My weather app has me back into the 40s and 50s next week. That is supported by the cross guidance agreement of a warm up next week. The snow would have just melted away. The constant warmth makes so even when we get there small favorable windows, even if it works out we can’t actually maintain a snowpack. That’s completely fair, if you care about snow more than temps I can’t really argue with that.

I agree with this, todays threat was legitimately a favorable look and we just got unlucky. The bigger issue though is the fact that we have been AN temps for 5 weeks and BN for one week. It’s without a doubt been better for you guys than me, but how much of that snow you got is on the ground right now?

Once again, I’ll consider it a favorable pattern when we get 3+ weeks of sustained BN temps. A one week window of opportunity in a sea of shit doesn’t count.

It’s just too warm. You are correct that the pattern changed, but it wasn’t until like a week ago. Even on the bottom map, the core of the cold is west, while in the east we are going to finish the month with AN temps. It isn’t our year, it’s fine to admit that.

The constant moving of the goalposts and downplaying the warmth is annoying. All you do is post how the pattern is going to be favorable, and you have been wrong every time. It’s been happening for 2 years now.

You have a map for the 30 days before that?

A 1 week window doesn’t cancel out 5 weeks of shit, try again. I’ll call it a favorable pattern if we actually have a sustained (3+ week) stretch of below normal temps. Otherwise it’s a small window in a sea of shit.

We’ve been kicking the can since late December.

Even if we get snow in Feb and Mar (we will, we do even in our worst winters), it’s very unlikely it will be enough to bring us to average, and even if it does the grade will be low due to overall temps and lack of snowcover.

It has been a non winter, +5 AN with well below normal snow here. My area doesn’t do well in strong and super ninos. The strength of the El Niño -PDO, and well AN Atlantic SSTs (especially bad news for the coastal plain) were overlooked. It’s not overcompensation, it’s telling it like it is. I do think next winter will be a more favorable pattern here though, should be another La Niña rather than this strong nino crap. I do think big winters are still on the table even with CC, but this just isn’t our year. It is what it is, it looked like it might become good a couple weeks ago but that didn’t pan out.

We’re back to tracking patterns rather than concrete threats in mid Jan….. ratter.

Still will be incredibly difficult to avoid an 8th straight AN temp winter. We keep kicking the can, first it was after Christmas, then mid Jan, now it’s Feb. Lets just call it what it is, a ratter.

This is a major development, I’m back in. When the Navy is the most NW that’s a huge red flag and should not be ignored. I figured it was over when we lost the Navy and CMC yesterday, but now we have a shot.

SE ridge and cold lower levels…. Kev may get his wish.

The mesos nailed this one. They are very good (NAM especially) with dealing with mid level warmth, whenever globals show the mid level warmth staying mostly offshore and the NAM has it penetrating well inland, most of the time it means a lot of sleet and or ice is coming. I haven’t followed too much the past couple days, but I remember globals having this mostly snow while the NAM and RGEM had a lot of sleet and ice.

That storm went so far NW it caused ptype issues. We need that kind of NW move for the Friday storm which is a long shot.

Even in March 2018, which was an amazing stretch of winter (I don’t remember seeing bare ground until like the 1st week of April), but even during that stretch we rolled snake eyes a couple of times in my area. The last nor’easter was shunted just south, the 1st one hugged the coast and it rained. However, it didn’t matter because the favorable pattern lasted for a month, and we got so many dice rolls that we didn’t need all of them to hit for a great month. Now 2015… that was the perfect combination of 99.9th percentile luck and a 10 week window of opportunity (great pattern in the aggregate).

Oh there absolutely is some bad luck involved. The way I look at it is that with every favorable window, you get a shot to roll the dice. Yes, you are correct that the past 3 rolls of the dice not panning out is bad luck (sub 10th percentile luck, you are absolutely right here). I just think the bigger problem is that the pattern has been so bad in the aggregate that we aren’t getting enough rolls of the dice. That’s the bad pattern, 5 weeks of close the blinds and then a 1 week favorable window this Jan. Last March was a 1 week window. Last Dec was 2 (correct me if I’m wrong, I remember getting 2 weeks of well BN temps, just didn’t work out snow wise then which is bad luck, we agree on that). When’s the last team we had an extended window of opportunity? It’s gotta be March 2018 right? Regardless, some of the long range guidance is hinting towards a longer window in Feb. hopefully that holds up and we get a 2012-2013 style comeback, which was one of my “what could go wrong” analogs (warm winter overall, but cashed in on the favorable pattern in the second half of winter). If we can get a 1 month instead of 1 or 2 week favorable window, I think that will go a long way.

I agree to an extent, but don’t feel that last season and the 1st half of this one are the best examples of this. 2021-2022 is actually a good example, my area got lucky to finish AN snowfall that winter. I still don’t consider that a good winter because it melted so fast, but the fact of the matter is I got more snow than I probably “should” have that winter when taking the overall pattern and temp profiles into account. The pattern was not good and it was a mild winter, we just happened to get a blizzard in the one favorable window sandwiched between a sea of warmth.