George001

Why does a 970s mb low over the benchmark have such a compact precip field?

The models still havent gone back north to where they were a couple days ago, what the fuck…..

The Navy was way north at 12z. It usually has a well se bias so that is interesting, it could be on to something.

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

Euro has been flopping around and is an outlier. Tossed

This looks like it was run out of Metfans cruiser

It can snow at 34 degrees

It would be very unfortunate if the good pattern coming broke down that fast. I’m hoping to not see bare ground until late March after Tuesdays snow.

I’m thinking 12-16 here

I checked the models this afternoon and told my family to stock up on groceries and prepare for the blizzard coming on Tuesday. 980s mb low passing inside the benchmark, I’m all in.

I’m getting excited about this threat

Gfs a bit north from last run. I’d like to see that continue.

I’d like the low to be about 75 miles SE of the GFS and Canadian for my area, but I’ll take my chances with a low bombing to the 970s in mid Feb.

This is painful to look at. If only it was a few degrees colder in eastern mass.

Damn, that is one hell of a storm.

Agree, you can still get a somewhat respectable winter with slightly above normal temps in the means, but it’s been what +4 AN? That’s just too warm. Meanwhile Alaska has been getting hammered.

Yeah, I don’t know why it would supposed to be showing snow. The low is hugging the coast.

Another issue with this winter is an interesting observation Kevin made. Alaska has been BN all year with well AN snows. They are getting hammered, which usually means we are torching. I remember this same thing happening in the 2011-2012 winter. A true Torch Tiger winter.

Yep looks toasty, you excited?

What a winter that was, truly a once in a lifetime type of winter. Had a great pattern just lock in from mid Jan on, and everything that could go right did. The luck factor cannot be understated here, I remember reading something that mentioned the probability of Boston having 90 inches in 3 weeks like the late Jan to mid Feb stretch is 1 in 20000 or something.

The redeeming factor in my eyes is strong and super nino climatology. There is historical precedence for big snows in Feb, even in warmer winters (wasn’t there one in 82-83?). Maybe the thing that screwed us in Dec in Jan can help a bit in late Feb?

This may be unpopular but….. I don’t think omegas posts have been unreasonable at all these past 2 winters. Is he biased? Yeah, but he is far from the only one. I also completely agree with the Pope that the pattern thus far has been consistent with a significant El Niño event. Raging STJ, warm and wet. That has been the theme of this winter, and it looks like it’s going to continue until mid month. What happens then is still up in the air. The reality is it HAS been warm, and it hasn’t been very snowy. If he’s posting 300+ hour torch maps during a blizzard….. then that’s different. Maybe the pattern does change, but when I think pattern change I’m going by great snow’s definition (a change to cold that locks in for 3+ weeks).

Yeah the pattern is not good right now but there are still 2 threats to track. The clipper threat for Feb 2-3 and the possible coastal scraper on Feb 7-8th. Both of these threats need a lot of work. Neither will be blizzards but any snow is good snow at this point. There’s nothing wrong with a quick inch or 2 of snow to make it look like winter.

It’s a clipper threat. It still needs some work but the NAM has a shortwave diving down and going right underneath us. I would rather track clippers than continue to analyze 300+ hour pattern maps. Tracking actual storms beats tracking patterns any day.

There is a wave coming down from Canada and there have been some interesting developments at H5. The wave isn’t super strong, but it looks like there is some strengthening as it hits ocean. There is also a bit of phasing going on, so although the vort is weak to start, the explosive development should occur as this over strengthens, expanding the precip field. It needs some work, but if this deepening occurs further west eastern mass should get some ocean effect snow. These type of events get overlooked but every once in a while a localized are wakes up to a surprised 3-4 inches. It’s probably going to be a lot less than that, but if this trends aggressively we have an outside shot at 2 inches of snow, so it’s still worth tracking.