George001

That makes sense, I would agree that the setup looks similar to the Jan 11th disaster. For me it’s still worth tracking though, although the probability of actually phasing is low this is a high ceiling setup IF we get one. Hopefully we can get something to break our way in a non ideal setup.

A couple days ago you were feeling good about the 20th, what happened? Did the western ridge trend worse on guidance?

We aren’t actually going to go whiff cutter cutter whiff are we? If that happens I’m out on tracking the rest of winter. At that point, just gotta laugh at the absurdity of the situation and acknowledge it’s not our year.

the Icon was ran out of Kevs basement, verbatim thats a significant ice storm for most of SNE.

Big ice events are rare but minor ones not so much. Hell, this Thursday we are expected to get some ice. Possibly the weekend too, but that looks more like plain rain right now. I am more in the Euro camp for that one.

The bigger issue for me is where the Euro is. Gfs has been all over the place with this one while the Euro has been locked in on a more northern track for several cycles.

Euro cuts the 16th and nukes us on the 20th. Honestly, don’t like that. The 20th is just too far out, that’s going to change a billion times. The 16th is closer, I’d rather have that one trend well and the 20th look like shit.

Gfs looks good, general 2-4/3-6 type deal before going over to a mix then dry slot as the low tracks to our west. It’s the same general setup though as our last 2 systems, the question is will it be more like this one or the one last Thursday?

The thing that annoys me most is the storms are falling short of what’s expected. The NWS had me at 6-9 inches and I got around 4. I thought I had a good chance to get 7-8 last night for a bit, but unfortunately that didn’t pan out. Probably just the pattern, these storms are flying.

I disagree it’s a very active period, we have an ice storm coming on Thursday and possibly another one on Sunday. Well, I would say we are in agreement that this pattern favors CNE/NNE for big snows more than here, for me though I get excited about all kinds of wintry precip (not just snow). If you want more snow and less ice you aren’t wrong. This pattern favors northern areas, CNE/NNE are likely going to see 2+ feet over the next couple of weeks. I would expect ptype issues to keep totals down for us. Btw, for as much shit as I gave you about this most recent storm your original idea was 100% right. The QPF was simply not there for big totals, more of a general 2-4/3-6 for SNE than the 6-8 I expected. I was wrong, gotta own it. Northern areas did well though, some 8-9 inch totals in CNE.

I’m feeling good about my chances to end up with 6+

That area could get over a foot

Based on radar it looks like northern areas are going to do very well. The Popes forecast of a more southern max zone is in trouble

Yeah this is a great pattern for NNE, they are really going to get buried this month.

Question, would the 18z gfs solution for this storm be considered a cutter, miller b or something else? People are calling it a cutter on another board im on, but when I think of cutters I think of what the Euro has for the 20th. Low plowing into the lakes with no secondary redevelopment.

You were saying nobody is breaking 6 with this just yesterday

I agree that we aren’t completely avoiding the taint late next week, a more northern track makes sense given the SE ridging but I am skeptical of a true cutter where we warm sector and get 60 degree flooding rains. It’s probably going to get icy.

You said it would be weak and strung out not too long ago, now you are worried it’s going by to amp up too much and rain? Nothing wrong with being more conservative, but pick one and stick to it.

Yes the 2/15 blizzard the models were OTS and then jogged way north 3-4 days out.

Threat 1: Sunday (day 3) Threat 2: Wednesday (day 6) Threat 3: Friday (day 8) Threat 4: Sunday (day 10) Under the gun for 4-8 inches on Sunday and tracking 3 more threats after that. Now that’s a nice pattern

Backloaded winter?

Looks like the warm layer won out with this one

Yeah nice hit, uniform 6-7 inches for most of SNE

I wouldn’t expect double digits with this setup but that’s too far in the other direction. 3-6/4-8 is a reasonable call at this range

I’m feeling pretty good about avoiding a ratter now for my area, but not sold that we get to average. All depends if those incredibly annoying last second rug pulls happen or not. While I do expect Feb to be snowier than Jan and end up being the snowiest month of the season (which is typical), I need to see actual snow in my backyard before going all in. After jumping the gun last storm and only getting 5 inches, I’m a bit hesitant to really go big (2ft + month) especially with the fast flow. I’m thinking the long range clown maps are somewhat overdone and we end up with a 15-20 inch month rather than a historic month.