George001

Yeah that’s not even close to east based, the monthly SST data for Dec reflects a strong modoki Nina if anything.

10-11 was not east based at all, guidance is more east based with the Nina than that winter, but less east based than 17-18 and 95-96.

I agree with that, but unlike last year I would also argue that nothing supports a 11-12, 2022-2023, 2023-2024, 1972-1973 etc redux.

I’m on board for a good winter from NYC north based on the recent trends in guidance. I was pessimistic a couple months ago, but things have changed. There are still some red flags, but I’ll gladly roll the dice with a weak east based or basin wide Nina.

If the recent guidance is correct, this will be the 2nd most favorable ENSO configuration we’ve had since 2017-2018 (best was 2018-2019, that winter failed for non ENSO related reasons). There are reasons to believe things will be much more favorable than the last 2 years where we had a modoki moderate Nina and then basinwide borderline super nino. The IRI blend had a peak of roughly -0.65 in NDJ, and guidance has trended towards a basin wide event that is leaning east if anything.

Yeah the temp + precip profile last year was consistent with previous strong and super Nino events. Warm and wet. Unfortunately, it was more like the really bad ones than the decent ones with a big KU event.

I suspect AGW is playing a major role in this

Considering that we are currently warm neutral at the surface in early July, we actually NEED to see a significant uptick in Nina development soon to actually get the ONI to Nina levels. As of the latest IRI update, the ONI crosses the weak threshold by late fall and peaks at -0.653 in NDJ, which is a later peak. Considering that the latest update also still has an 85% chance of La Niña developing, a late developing weak nina is now the favored outcome. Of course there are other variables that could lead to a stronger Nina response than expected from such a weak ONI event, but I am skeptical that a Nina with an ONI that weak will act like a strong Nina. If the ONI gets down to -1.2 or something, different story.

This is what I posted in mid May… a later developing Nina may not be such a bad thing for winter prospects in the east especially New England.

As someone who was on the strong Niña train, the latest obs have not been impressive at all. The subsurface has actually warmed, and it is still ENSO neutral (if anything it’s warm neutral in the ENSO 3.4 region). Thats something worth watching.

Interesting, so if you adjust for the Euros +0.7 ONI warm bias for non nino winters, that would bump the ONI from roughly -0.3 to -1, so the difference between cold neutral and a moderate Niña. Especially for DTs forecasting area (lower Mid Atlantic), I would assume the difference between a cold neutral and moderate Niña would be somewhat significant

Yeah I’m not a DT fan. I am of the opinion that he is calling off the Nina way too early, the European model has a warm bias (roughly .6 ONI based on GAwx’s post). So it will overestimate the strength of Nino’s and underestimate the strength of Nina’s.

As someone who is extremely critical of the cold/snowy bias on many east coast winter forecasts, you are correct about last year. To put things in perspective, roughly 95% of winters fall inside of 2 standard deviations of normal. Last winter was not one of those winters. Climate change does skew things for sure, but last winter was the perfect storm of horrible pattern + bad luck + AGW. Everything aligned perfectly to deliver one of the mildest and least snowy winters recorded over the past 200 or so years. There is just no way to anticipate something THAT anomalous.

That’s where I’m at, it may not quite reach strong by ONI but I would be surprised if the Niña remained weak. Whether it’s moderate or strong it should be a major pattern driver regardless.

Agree. I also think the average snowfall will decline earlier in more marginal climates to begin with. For example, I expect snowfall averages to start declining earlier and faster for my area than some of you guys who live more inland and north. I suspect a 2007-2008 type pattern would have worse results for my area now than it would back then, but farther north would still get hammered.

Some of the guidance has backed off a bit, but the latest obs show that rapid cooling is occurring in regions 1.2 and 3 already. The early development of this Niña could potentially indicate that the more aggressive guidance has the right idea. Weaker events don’t usually start developing until later.

That said, although things do look ugly right now and I would lean warm, I’m not quite as pessimistic as I was last year at this time for New England. South of NYC yeah it looks really ugly, but New England has more room for error in stronger Nina’s. Latitude is a big deal in SE ridge patterns. Could it flex all the way up to Canada? Sure it can, and it likely will at times. But it can also lead to gradient patterns where those on the north side of the gradient get hammered like 2007-2008.

Yeah 95-96 is not a good analog at all, +PDO, weaker event, east based. I don’t think 14-15 and 10-11 are bad though. I like 14-15 for the atlantic (good solar match, strong consolidated PV), and 10-11 for the pacific (good ENSO match for both strength and structure, good PDO match). I’m not a fan of the way analog forecasting is done and interpreted. Using 14-15, 10-11 etc as analogs shouldn’t mean “Oh this means Boston is getting 80+ inches of snow”. It doesn’t work that way, just because there are some similarities in those years doesn’t mean the results will be the same. 14-15 is a decent analog for the Atlantic, but that was a strongly positive +PDO and a modoki Nino. A +NAO in a weak modoki Nino is a very snowy pattern, a +NAO in a moderate-strong modoki nina is a big warm signal. What Bastardi leaves out is that 2011-2012 and 2022-2023 are great ENSO analogs. AGW also needs to be considered. Bastardi fails to do this, which is a big reason why his forecast always bust cold.

Yeah I’m thinking it gets to around the strength of the 2007-2008 or 2010-2011 Ninas.

I’m not a fan of that analog because I think the strength is incorrect. 2007-2008 could be a good analog. +NAO, strong La Niña, -PDO.

The -PDO has strengthened quite a bit over the past month, I stand corrected on that. For the strength of the nina, im not really buying some of the weaker guidance. The subsurface is already nearly -1C in May, that’s not something that happens in weak events. I’m still thinking it becomes a strong Niña rather than moderate, but we will see.

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

The PDO is still up in the air, but it will likely be negative as is typical for moderate to strong Nina’s. These are valid points, and I agree that it looks ugly right now. Some of the latest guidance is trending more towards a moderate peak than strong one, but regardless the solar activity is a strong negative factor for east coast snow prospects. I am much more concerned about that than the raw strength. In the extremely snowy strong La Niña event in 2010-2011, the solar activity was very low, opposite of this year. Id keep an eye on the PDO, it is negative but not as strongly negative as it was earlier in the year despite the Nino falling apart. That’s one thing to look for as a possible wildcard that could work in favor of those rooting for snow on the east coast. Ultimately, right now things are pointing in the direction of a +NAO moderate-strong Niña which is bad news for weenies such as myself.

This is interesting, so basically climate change is leading to more La Ninas and stronger ones? I remember reading something about there being a link between more extreme ENSO events in general and climate change. That kind of makes sense, often there is overlap between stronger events and multi year Nina’s. I’m curious if climate change is causing stronger Nina’s which in turn leads to more multi year Nina’s, or is it the other way around? Regardless, in terms of sensible weather this doesn’t matter, as either way it would result in more multi year Ninas as discussed by this study.

That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.