George001

07-08 is actually my top analog, though I do think this Nina will be weaker than that one. That’s just me nitpicking though, it’s still a great analog given the subsurface similarities, -PDO, high solar etc. I’m more skeptical of 2016-2017 because that was a modoki. I’m not discounting it or anything, I just don’t think it’s as good as some other analogs.

Yep, the more north storm track in Nina’s can be good for SNE if the SE ridge doesn’t flex too much and torch the entire east.

Agreed, there isn’t anything wrong with being a weenie but you still need to acknowledge reality and be respectful towards others with different views. I love cold and snow as much as anyone, but id rather enjoy it while it’s coming down and talk about what’s actually happening, not what I want to happen. I’ve been there with the wishcasting, hell I’m still prone to it occasionally (though nowhere near as bad as I used to be). All it does is give you unrealistic expectations and set you up for disappointment.

Yeah that winter was cooked after that early Dec storm. Not only did the PV reach near record strength, it consolidated over the North Pole which was game over for any of those big winter ideas. That was similar to what happened in 2011-2012.

Do you think the models are drastically underestimating the strength of the Nina? They did in 2007-2008. I think they are a bit, but am still skeptical this becomes an high end event, though I am open to the possibility I am wrong about that. In my opinion, if the models bust on the strength they will be too weak, not too strong. I’m expecting a peak of around -0.9 to -1C, a bit stronger and more basin wide than 2017-2018 but still a good ENSO match.

Yeah, I didn’t expect the pacific to suck the entire winter. I suspect my miss on the pacific in Feb and Mar is related to the whole right for the wrong reasons thing.

I actually think 2017-2018 is a good ENSO analog. It’s the other non ENSO related factors that make it not a great match. Like Snowman mentioned earlier, 2017-2018 didn’t have a roasting Atlantic Ocean (raging +AMO), and the solar activity is significantly higher than it was that winter. There is a big jump between “2017-2018 is a good ENSO analog” to “we’re getting buried in March”. @40/70 Benchmarkhas been doing this more in his latest forecasts, using different analogs for different months, and separating the analog from the expected snow output, and taking climate change into account. A good example is last year. 1957-1958 was listed as an analog, and it turned out to be an excellent match for the ENSO and raging STJ. However, the temp profile was completely different, and so were the snowfall outputs as a result. That doesn’t mean 1957-1958 was a shitty analog, if you looked at that and expected the same amount of snow as back then, thats just a fundamental misunderstanding of what analogs are supposed to do. Of course the temp profile was different, it’s a 60+ year old analog.

Current anomalies: Nino 4: +0.7 Nino 3.4: +0.3 Nino 3: -0.1 nino 1.2: -0.2. Looking at the subsurface, there is a lot of cold near the surface in the ENSO 3 region. The developing subsurface cold pool is centralized in the ENSO 3.4 region. Am I missing something here? The subsurface + surface configuration appears at first glance to support future cooling in the ENSO 3.4, 3 and 1.2 regions with less cooling in the ENSO 4 region. That said, I do agree that when it actually maters (in the winter), the Nina will be less east based that 2017-2018 was. Regardless, it appears that the debate is between an east based and a basin wide event, there isn’t any signs of this turning into a modoki anytime soon.

The thing is it’s been happening more often. It seems like every other year it hits 70 in Feb or Mar, I don’t remember that being normal even 10 years ago.

I’m gonna be honest, I misread his initial post, he didn’t actually say anything I disagree with. I was outside in the extreme heat all day yesterday and my brain is kind of fried. Before anyone asks, yes im blaming AGW for this entire argument taking place.

Again, it hit 80 fucking degrees in Feb. AGW was already off the charts.

AGW has absolutely progressed further since then, but 2017-2018 was NOT before AGW, not even close. That was the year we saw 80 in Feb. Also, wasnt the MJO being not stuck in phases 4-6 related to the east based Nina? I remember reading a while ago how Modoki Nina’s and East based ninos for reasons tend to support MJO development in the maritime regions. Isn’t that why the ENSO structure matters?

The past 2 winters we had a borderline super Nino and a modoki moderate Nina. Last year in particular looked shot months before winter started. A potent east based Nino is the absolute worst possible ENSO configuration in New England. 2nd worst is a potent modoki Nina. With a weaker ENSO this year the other factors will hold more weight, people on these weather forms see Nina and panic but it’s really not justified in New England.

I strongly believe that things will be different this time. As in, we won’t be looking for a couple windows of opportunity in a well AN temp winter. I don’t think this winter will finish more than 1C AN for DJF. A good sports analogy is the Celtics and Clippers. People said the Celtics were soft, chokers etc because they kept imploding in the playoffs. All year long the signs were there that things would be different this time, but people kept saying same old Celtics, and then we all know what happened… Same thing happened to the Clippers, people doubted Harden and said he would fail on the Clippers, but he ended up having a lot of success. Due to the success James Harden had with the Clippers, they gave him a 70 million dollar 2 year extension. The point is, things change. Just because the past 2 winters sucked doesn’t mean we should expect this one to, especially when there are already signs that the ENSO state will be significantly more favorable than either of those winters.

More reason to NOT buy the Euro and its ENSO Neutral prediction.

Gun to head, if I was grading what I am expecting to happen from a scale of 1 (ratter) to 10 (2014-2015) for this winter, I’m thinking around a 6.5 for my area as of right now.

I don’t think things look all that bad for us. The guys dooming and glooming over in the ENSO thread have valid reasons to be pessimistic, but they also live hundreds of miles south of us. There is a world where they get fucked by the Nina and storm after storm goes north and they rain, while we get a good to very good winter. 2007-2008 is a good example of this.

DT on 7/10: La Niña is not likely. CPC prediction center 1 day later: 79% chance of La Nina conditions during November-January. Yeah, im going with the CPC prediction center on this one.

Even if it does end up being a big winter, im not giving JB and DT credit if they are right for the wrong reasons. Given that the current PDO is strongly negative and that is consistent with the projected ENSO state for the winter, there isn’t a good reason to question the strongly -PDO forecasts. Also, DT straight up calling for ENSO neutral is laughable. The latest NOAA update yesterday gave an 80% chance of La Niña conditions being present during the winter. There is a stronger case for a moderate La Niña than ENSO neutral.

That makes sense, the jet stream moving north over time is one of many observed long term effects of climate change. That also explains why clippers are so rare now. They still exist, but they don’t dive as far south as they did in the past.

I think it’s strange that there is a ridge in the east and west. Usually bad Nina patterns have a massive trough out west like 2022-2023.

I disagree, the 2022-2023 temp profile is not conducive to snow outside of NNE and elevations. The reason I am more optimistic about this winter is the shift in guidance to a later developing Nina. While later developing Nina doesn’t inherently mean better winter for the east, the way this specific event is developing right now (from east to west), the earlier the Nina develops, I would think the earlier in the winter it would shift west. This gives me hope that the Nina will be east based or at least east tilted throughout the first half of winter.

It’s probably wrong, but that would be a repeat of 2011-2012.

Agreed on the Nina, I buy that a moderate nina is more likely than ENSO neutral. I disagree with Ben that the pattern is hostile for east coast snow, a basin wide east tilted Nina until Jan, then it moves west. That isn’t bad at all.

Fair point, but Region 4 is massive, and the SST anomaly was equal to region 3 (-1.5).