George001
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Everything posted by George001
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Euro is way north this run, still out to sea but it’s very close. -
Agree, it will come north.
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You buy the gfs solution?
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Interesting low location
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Yeah, the Canadian actually has so much cold air that it snows EAST of the low hour 180. The low rams into SNE and it still gives my area blizzard conditions. I’ve never seen snow so close to the low like that before.
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That’s going to be a nuke
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Yeah you guys west are in a good spot for this
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979mb just inside the benchmark
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holy shit, on the gfs the storm evolves into a BLIZZARD for all of eastern mass! Inside 7 days, an actual fucking BLIZZARD!
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The trough is deeper and energy is stronger on the gfs, I like seeing that
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
George001 replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
JB is a climate change denying clown -
Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
George001 replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos? -
Yeah, it’s not a perfect setup but I would take that and run. Half a foot of snow and then an inch of sleet would be a great outcome especially since there is another threat following that is a better setup for the coast. That’s the nice thing about having a good airmass, even if the track isn’t ideal these runs are still giving me a good about of snow before any changeover.
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Yeah, looks like more sleet than ice.
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That said, the setup for the 20-21st threat is much better for coastal areas. The ridge axis is centered over Montana for that one and the blocking is starting to weaken a bit.
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I would like it to come east, but this solution fits the 500mb pattern. I don’t think it’s a great pattern for the coast due to the location of the western ridge axis, it’s just too far west. For coastal areas an ideal location for the western ridge is centered over Montana, for this threat it’s centered over Washington. It’s also more of a Miller A rather than a Miller B.
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It’s going to come back NW. I’m more worried about an inland runner than suppression in this pattern.
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Not when the Navy’s on board
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Yeah, low rams into CT.
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The gfs looked close to something a lot bigger. If the energy digs just a little more for the 17th, the strength of the low will begin to increase on future runs.
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Yeah I remember you brought up that this could be a colder version of 2015-2016 a few months ago. Hopefully we get a big storm this year way north of the blizzard that year.
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To be fair to Snowman, he called for Dec and Jan to be warm and Feb to be more favorable. That seems like a reasonable call right now, similar to 2015-2016 (which is looking like a very good analog). Feb 2016 I remember being a pretty good month, even though the winter was overall mild and BN snow for my area.
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I haven’t looked at the actual anomalies in a while, but now ENSO 1.2 is the weakest region. It’s basinwide, but if anything it has a slight WEST tilt not east. That’s unusual in a nino this strong. It’s interesting how Snowman was right about the strength of the nino, but you and Ray were right about the structure. It’s weird, we have the STJ on roids which is common in stronger nino events, but the look out west so far has been more like a bad Nina pattern (which Bluewave talked about a lot).
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I’ve been fairly pessimistic about this winters pattern so far, but the pattern for the 1/20 period legitimately looks great and has the potential to deliver a big one. Both the Atlantic and pacific look to be cooperating, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Even the 1/16 threat which doesn’t have as ideal of a pattern could be sneaky good if it doesn’t amp too much and run inland. That looks like higher ratio snow.
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Snowman wasn’t right about it being east based, but he was correct about the strength. We are already at 1.9 ONI on the trimonthly, and unless the Nino rapidly weakens over the next couple of weeks NDJ is breaking 2.0, making this officially a super nino.
