George001

the rain snow line hit a brick wall like 10-15 miles to my NW. I might not get a flake outta this, unfortunately it appears the navy was wrong. I thought I might get 20 but the temps are just a bit too warm in eastern mass. CNE still looking good though for an overperformer

Temps have decreased to 37 degrees, still raining.

Strong slow moving monster ocean low, 2+ inches of QPF, low coming up the coast and stalling right over the cape, earlier transition to snow than expected in many areas, and now models are ramping up snowfall output as the storm is on top of us. Everything I look at screams overperformer

Gfs gives me more snow than you despite your area being to the NW of me in a mid April storm with marginal temps and a low hugging the coast. That makes no sense whatsoever.

There are reports that it’s already snowing in the Worcester and the storm is just getting starting to really get going, models have 2+ in of QPF there on top of the rain that has already fallen today. This is overperforming already

If the low doesn’t get NW of the canal this storm is going to surprise a lot of people. It appears the models have underestimated the degree of dynamic cooling which should bring higher totals to places like Worcester, with areas like the BOS-PVD corridor having a wide range of possible outcomes (anything from nothing to over a foot is realistic in this are). Going to be an interesting nowcast situation.

Down to 39 degrees now, still rain. Temps are cooling quickly though

It is 48 degrees and raining in my backyard right now

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6.

I disagree, the euro just 2 runs ago showed this scenario (the newer run isn’t as good, but it’s still very close). Even the most recent run the more aggressive models (Euro and Navy) are the better ones so I remain optimistic. The navy in particular is a foot+ right to the cape with 20+ in my area (I’m not quite that aggressive since I’m using the euro as well)

40 no, but 15 from Boston to Providence with 2 feet+ in the mountains? I can see it, we just need the low a bit more SE. It’s aggressive, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

That’s not what we want to see, hopefully it’s just an off run. Especially in mid April we need those dynamics to get a big snowstorm.

I wouldn’t say no one dares to call for a major snow storm....

Gfs would be nothing even in Worcester and northern mass, which is not in line with the consensus, so it can safely be disregarded. The low is unlikely to retrograde NW of Worcester. This close in the short range models like the href and nam are useful, so going with a Euro/Navy/Canadian/Nam/HREF blend, you get a low stalling right over the canal, with the NW end of the envelope (Canadian) getting the low to around my area, with the more se guidance (Navy) bringing the low 10 miles SE of Nantucket. I expect the navy to move NW and the Canadian to move SE, with the Euro having the right idea. Looks like Nam was SE but corrected NW, which makes sense (in line with the consensus now).

The way its trending it may not be a lesser version (probably will though, but that’s more of 97 being a beast than anything).

Elevated areas are getting hammered, but if things come together a changeover to several hours of heavy snow right to the cape cannot be ruled out. Understandably, most TV Mets aren’t calling for big totals in eastern mass yet but they did warn that it’s possible and it wouldn’t take a huge shift for that to happen (low needs to be a bit farther south and east, low over Worcester is no good for us in eastern mass, though your area should still get a lot). In my opinion it’s worth keeping an eye on even for as far SE as James, if everything breaks right even he might get a few inches (lower probability of course, but not impossible).

Correct

My top analogs for this storm: 1. April 1st 1997 2. March 8th 2013 3. Early Dec 2019 4. Feb 2 2021 I have them weighted 50/35/10/5 for 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. I’ve been big on the April 1st 1997 analog since I looked at the models a couple of days ago (hence the aggressive forecast), but looking at how the low just sits and stalls with a west to east fetch of Atlantic moisture being rammed into a cold airmass, producing insane QPF totals (2-3+ inches of liquid in some areas), I also like March 8 2013 as an analog.

The low just sits like 10-20 miles se of Nantucket for 12+ hours

It’s snowing right to the cape at hour 42 lol

I hacked the nam

Do you guys think my area has a shot of maybe getting half of the low end of my forecast? I am still holding out hope that things break right but going to need the euro to jump on board soon or im going to start losing confidence SE of 95 zones (including my area).

April 1st 1997.... enjoy your 30 inches, I’ll enjoy my 20.

CNE/NNE is looking really good for this one

At this point while I am almost as bullish on this stock as I am in my GME shares, I highly doubt after this storm we get another flake of snow. I honestly didn’t think we would even have a shot. I had already moved on from winter and storm tracking until I heard the local weatherman say the word “snow”, that’s when I decided to look and I liked what I saw. The low on the Canadian and Euro looks to take a track from roughly block island to right over the canal, and stalls there (euro a bit more inland, more like 10 mi se of my house). I would typically lean against big snows this time of the year since we are a month into spring, but the amount of cold air available in the upper levels, the dynamics, the amplified nature of the flow, and the strength of the low scream big storm. There’s going to likely be over 2 inches of QPF in all of Mass, with jackpots of 3+ inches. If this were even late March there would likely be winter storm warnings and blizzard watches up in all of Mass right now. While the low track isn’t perfect, it’s only like 30-40 miles too NW of ideal and is rapidly bombing out and stalling. However due to it being mid April things are more complicated with high bust potential both high and low. When I first gave my forecast, it (understandably) got a lot of flak due to my previous failed forecasts as well as it being mid April. Now it’s not looking so crazy though, especially in the elevations. My area and se we are going to need some more help, but it wouldn’t take much to get us in on the fun too (maybe 10-20 miles south with the low).