George001

This is especially true for stronger ninas. I know going by oni it was considered to be “only” a low end strong Nina, but going my MEI which in my opinion is a better indicator of enso strength, the 2010-2011 winter had the strongest nina on record, the inverse of the 2015-2016 nino). The following winter was a moderate Nina, similar to the strength of last years Nina (maybe a bit weaker). After the strong Nina of 2007-2008, a weak Nina followed. The correlation is not as strong with weak ninas, but after every moderate or stronger Nina on that graph, another Nina followed the next winter. Right now the models are showing a weak Nina next year, but based on last years Enso, the trend from previous months, the spread of the model Enso data (wide range of outcomes, but most of the outliers are to the nina side), and the recent subsurface data, there is potential for the strength of the la nina to drastically increase. Just a couple of months ago, the subsurface was indicating that we could be headed into a moderate el nino, but the subsurface has significantly weakened since then, indicating that the transition to la nina is already starting. Right now I would rule out an El Niño of any strength based on what I’m seeing from the latest data and would lean towards a high end weak nina, and wouldnt yet rule out a moderate, or even low end strong nina.

A weak west based nino is ideal, but if all the models were showing that right now the risk would be that the nino strengthens more than expected and the warmer waters move east. Last year all the models were showing a weak Nina at this time, and it ended up being a high end moderate/ borderline strong Nina. Im glad the models are showing a borderline weak Nina/cold neutral right now. Weak Nina is the 2nd best Enso state+strength combination there is. With a Nina you are less likely to get a historic blizzard with 3 feet plus in all of New England (due to less southern stream), but you will have more shots at snow with an active northern stream. If the polar vortex cooperates and you can get the northern branch to dig, go negatively tilted, allowing it to tap and throw Atlantic moisture back into New England, watch out. That is a weather pattern that can and does produce multiple severe blizzards in one year, like 18+ inches with isolated 2 feet. That’s how you get 2010-2011, 1995-1996, and March 2018. Yeah the ceiling isn’t quite as high for individual storms, but you can still get a 2 ft severe blizzard with a northern stream driven Miller b in New England.

Good, 5 months ago the way the subsurface looked it appeared like the early signs were indicating we could go mod-strong nino, which means congrats mid atlantic. It appears now the models are leaning towards a weak Nina, which is much better for winter prospects in New England than a moderate or stronger Nino.

Due to the unusual climate change induced jet stream configuration currently in place, everywhere from Seattle to Canada to eastern mass is seeing temps soar to the triple digits. In my opinion, the extreme warmth off the northwest pacific is the culprit here. This warm pool allowed the pacific jet to strengthen to levels never seen before, flooding the entire country with hot pacific air. The heat wave we just had? This is only the beginning, according to the models there are signs that warm air is going to start rebuilding by the 2nd week of July. Since this current have happened in June, the next one will be deeper into the summer, and the pacific jet is forecasted to be even stronger. I doubt today will be the last time Boston breaks 100 this year, in my opinion temps will soar to 105-110 in the Boston area during the July 13-23rd timeframe, and it will be climate change induced. Many areas in Washington and Oregon broke all time record temps by 8-10 degrees and it isn’t even mid summer yet. This suggests that the rate of acceleration of global warming has drastically increased. I hate heat, and hope that we don’t see 100 again any time soon, but unfortunately that’s what the long range guidance is telling me right now. I strongly believe that this anomalous weather pattern we are currently in will set the stage for a winter that will smash records. Whether it’s record warmth, snow, cold, or lack of snow, I’m not sure yet. Right now I am leaning mild, due to what we are seeing so far this summer from the jet stream, but things can change very quickly.

My original idea back in March of a record strong Nina the next winter might end up right after all the way the models are trending.

Off topic but man I just heard about James today, man that’s awful, he was too young. I’m new to posting on this board but I have been lurking on weather boards for years and his posts really stood out to me. His unwavering passion for weather despite getting skunked year after year on the Cape was a beautiful thing. I really wish I could have met him in person, whenever I would hear him hyping up a massive blizzard on the models it made my day. Reading James posts is what lead me to discovering my own passion for weather, and his posts are what inspired me to make an account. I know due to my extreme weeniesm and at times bordering on delusional forecasts lead many to crown me as the biggest weenie on the board, but I refuse to accept that title. James always has and always will be the biggest weenie on this board. RIP James, the man who helped me and many others discover our passions for the weather. Tracking winter storms won’t be the same without him, and next time I’m hyping up a massive blizzard I will always be thinking of him.

I hope you are right about the not having to worry about a nino next year

I have mostly been fishing largemouth recently but want to try going for stripers. I don’t have a boat so I would be fishing off the bank. I live in interior sema around the Foxborough area, what areas would you guys recommend I try for striper fishing?

Summer 2021 update: as spring ends and summer begins, we are beginning to see more clarity in regards to the enso state for the winter of 2021-2022. It is still early and this could still change (last year at this time appeared to be an enso neutral winter coming up, when in reality we ended up with a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina), but right now the models are predicting an cold neutral/borderline weak Nina for the winter of 2021-2022, with the range being from roughly warm neutral to a low end moderate Nina. The recent observations show that the subsurface warmth is weakening, which indicates that we could be approaching the peak in the Enso region over the next month or two before temps decrease again in that region. Therefore, at this time for my forecast I am leaning towards a weak La Niña (-.5 to -.8 strength), which is on the lower end of the temp range in the Enso region on the models. Unfortunately, the Pacific Ocean temps in the area just off the west coast still remain well above average, and so do the ssts off the Atlantic Ocean. These factors(especially the warm ssts off the Atlantic) skunked several of our chances at getting severe blizzards in eastern mass, as the warm ocean air warmed us up just enough to change the precip over to rain while north and west areas get hammered with a severe blizzard. The warmth in the pacific led to the pacific jet going haywire, flooding the country with mild pacific air and leading to us getting skunked in January. Due to the unfavorable SSTs (that look similar to the last few winters) combined with a favorable enso state, the early signs point to an avg to slightly below avg winter in the area (conflicting signals), but this should be taken with a grain of salt since it’s still early and the signs for how the single most important factor (the polar vortex) in our winter weather will behave are several months away from revealing themselves (October-November). In 2014-2015, the sst profile looked awful heading into the winter and did skunk the 1st half of winter, but then we had a polar vortex displacement where the polar vortex was displaced in the perfect spot and just sat there, leading to extreme cold in the eastern half of the US, and when combined with the weak nino induced subtropical jet, resulted in extreme cyclogenesis. This led to multiple severe blizzards coming up the coast, brining feet of snow to eastern mass every week from late Jan to late Feb. This polar vortex event that led to us going from a ratter to the snowiest winter on record in a month in 2015 is not something that will show its hand until a couple of weeks before it happens.

The gfs has trended even colder with the low and now supports a severe nor’easter with heavy snow in eastern mass. They should just retire the gfs, it’s a garbage model that is almost always wrong. I’m not buying that it will even snow one flake even in the mountains and northern New England, never mind where I live.

Yeah but for massive nor’easters (sub 980mb) isn’t there usually a band of heavy precip that backs in farther west than the surface maps say? The dynamics look quite extreme to me on that run, which to me signals that there will be banding farther west. When combining that with the location of the 540 line is what led me to the conclusion that this run supports severe blizzard conditions in the Berkshires. That said, I believe the run is wrong and am not forecasting that.

Normally when I see a low that strong on the models my first instinct is to forecast a massive blizzard, but it’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong and also it’s May. Based on the upper levels (for r/s line I use the 540 line) this run would support severe blizzard conditions in the berkshires and maybe even some snow into Worcester, with rain se of there. Of course its not going to happen because it’s the GFS and it’s May, but the fact that the run even supports blizzard conditions in May says everything you need to know about this model, which is that it is absolute garbage. Too bad we couldn’t get this in March. Fortunately the early signals (severe volcanic activity, and weak enso signal) are supportive for a severe winter next year, let’s hope that they hold.

I caught a 12 inch and 16 inch largemouth bass last week using shiners

What happened to the 80s this week? Just a couple days ago my weather app had temps in the low 80s Wednesday now it’s saying low 70s. Still well above avg this time of year but not record warmth like I thought we would get.

I agree with him on that. Latest enso forecast has the enso moving up to neutral before La Niña re emerges and peaks at roughly -.9 to -1.1 degrees Celsius (borderline weak/mod Nina). I have also read that there was severe volcanic activity last year, which often will have a lag effect where 2+ years out it will lead to extreme winter weather with severe cold and blizzard conditions. In 1816, the year without a summer it supposedly snowed in June in SNE, which is almost unheard of. Due to climate change, it is highly unlikely we will every see anything like that again, but it is very possible that due to the extreme volcanic activity last year the massive amounts of volcanic gases released into the atmosphere acting as a shield against solar radiation, allowing for cooler temps with an extended winter season and several severe blizzards. This extreme volcanic activity+ favorable Enso state has me leaning big as well, but things can change.

It appears the latest long range models support the nina ending in a month or two, transitioning to enso neutral and peaking at 0 degrees Celsius before dipping down again into another Nina (borderline of weak/moderate strength) for winter 2022. It’s still early spring so the models will continue to struggle with the Enso forecast, but we should know more by July or August. I’m rooting for this to be right, ninas of borderline weak/moderate strength tend to be great in eastern Mass, 1995-1996 and 2017-2018 were roughly that strength (96 a bit stronger, 18 a bit weaker). Ninas get an undeserved bad reputation from eastern mass snow weenies imo, yeah it means there will be more SE ridge but that isn’t necessarily bad, as it makes it less likely storms will miss to the south. The risk is more ptype issues, and I would rather deal with ptype issues than missing storms altogether to the south. It’s strange how eastern mass snow weenies panic and call for ratters when they see a big Nina going into the winter (like before this winter), yet we have roughly the same avg snow in strong ninas and enso neutral winters, and you don’t see all this panic about ratters when it’s enso neutral. The only enso states that have a strong signal for below avg snow are moderate nino and strong nino. Ninas are also better for snowpack retention, stretches of sustained cold, and frequent tracking for a bunch of moderate systems at the expense of a lesser shot at a huge one (due to less active southern jet).

The euro has had a strong low off the coast with a marginal airmass for a few straight runs. Eastern Mass is probably done due to climo, but CNE/NNE has a shot at experiencing blizzard conditions from that storm. In eastern Mass we tend to get screwed in late fall and early spring storms, even in a conductive setup for an early/late season snowstorm due to the mild ocean influence. Even the slightest east wind= rain since you are bringing in fall/spring warm Atlantic air. We need the winds to be due north or coming from the west or north west. One thing I learned from all these busted forecasts is especially when it isn’t mid winter (even then to a lesser extent), the wind direction cannot be ignored. I blame the ocean on why I got like 50 inches less snow this year than Worcester, I swear Worcester is a snow magnet, they always seem to not only get more than us in Eastern Mass but they even get more than some areas NW of there. Elevation+ being just inland enough to escape ocean influence (allows for higher ratio snows as well as more snow overall) but close enough to not get missed to the south from coastal storms that hit eastern mass helps a lot. I might be going to live there for college next year so I am looking forward to getting buried by multiple monster blizzards with high ratio snow piled up higher than i am tall. Hopefully we get a big nina again next year.

I strongly agree. It is late April so the probably of a snow event is unlikely, the pattern is as supportive as it can get for late April, and if things do come together when you combine an unseasonably cold airmass with warm spring ocean temps that would allow for rapid cyclogenesis. The warm ocean air is a double edged sword though, as it wouldn’t take much even with a monster slow moving ocean low to bring enough warm air in to screw over eastern mass and change us to rain. Due to this, areas that got hit the hardest by this storm would be favored again for the next one. I’m not going to call for totals yet but the euro would be one hell off storm.

After the mountains stole my 12+ inches of snow that I forecasted in the Boston-Providence corridor (I got .1 inches of snow), I thought this was it and we wouldn’t have another threat until November-December. However, I looked at the most recent Euro run and it appears it has a historic late April blizzard at hour 240. Looking at the upper level pattern and taking into account the fact that the Euro is the best long range model we have, this cannot be ignored and is a very realistic solution. There is a piece of the polar vortex diving south and phasing with the southern branch. The flow is also extremely amplified, and there is blocking in place to keep a lobe of the polar vortex in place over eastern Canada, which is our cold air source. While it is late April, this is not a normal spring pattern due to how far south the polar vortex is diving down. Typically in early spring, the polar vortex is sitting over the North Pole, undisturbed. However, on the euro it is displaced and several pieces are breaking off. This is as good of a pattern as it gets for monster blizzards in eastern mass, other than the whole late April thing (unfortunately, this cannot be ignored. It is a legitimate issue and will be a limiting factor to an extent). However, on the euro while it isn’t Arctic, the air mass is colder than it was for our current storm, and the trough digs more, and strengthens more than our current storm. Due to the extremely unusual clash of an early March like air mass combined with mid spring ocean temps and a highly amplified and blocked pattern, there is big potential in this pattern. I would favor more CNE/NNE/elevated areas rather than eastern mass for now due to the calendar date, but even as far south as Metfan is in the threat area and should keep an eye on this. If it comes together, watch out, the storm would be more dynamic, colder, and bring in more QPF than this one so it has tons of upside.

Yeah it looks like the low got to around Plymouth, just NW of the Canal. The Euro/Navy/Canadian blend I use had the right idea, and I actually got the track of the low right in my forecast (I expected a low right over the outer cape). The model blend that I use did a great job, and is not why my forecast busted. I don’t blame the navy at all for my forecast busting, as models are tools to make forecasts, they aren’t meant to rip and read. My forecast busted because I interpreted the model data incorrectly, which is on me as the forecaster, not the Navy. I forecasted 8:1 ratios and missed a warm layer resulted in more rain and less snow, and once snow did come ratios werent even 4:1 never mind 8:1. The gfs, as usual was garbage with it constantly retrograding the low into Worcester (not even close, they got a solid snow storm there). This was a fun storm to track and I feel that I learned a lot from it, and I plan on using what I learned to make better forecasts in the future.

Yep, not only would less QPF be wasted as rain (I must have gotten 2+ inches of QPF as rain), but the snow ratios would have increased as well (in many areas like where I live the ratios are horrible, less than 2:1, which is why snow totals are so low). If this same storm happened a month ago my forecast might have verified, and if it happened 2 months ago this storm would have been a top 10 blizzard of all time. I forecasted 15-25 inches of snow in my area (assumed 8:1 ratios, 2-3 inches liquid snow and .5-1 inches liquid of rain). However there must have been a sneaky warm layer at 925 mb (I can only look at 850 and 700mb, not 925mb temps on tropical tidbits, this may be a small part of (of course the biggest reason is I’m not a met and don’t really know what I’m doing yet) the reason why I keep overestimating snow ratios and underestimating how much QPF is wasted as rain. In reality, I ended up with around 1.5 in of rain and maybe .6-.1 inches of liquid equivalent falling as snow, but the ratios were less than even 1:1 as I have a slushy coating, not 6-10 inches of snow.

There are reports that it’s sunny out over the cape, likely because there is a low there.

Has not accumulated yet but it is snowing now in my area.

the rain snow line hit a brick wall like 10-15 miles to my NW. I might not get a flake outta this, unfortunately it appears the navy was wrong. I thought I might get 20 but the temps are just a bit too warm in eastern mass. CNE still looking good though for an overperformer

Temps have decreased to 37 degrees, still raining.