George001

Yeah that’s the reason why anti vaxxers piss me off so much. Im worried that the increase in covid cases will cause governments to overreact and reinstate mask mandates and social distancing guidelines. I also worry that colleges will move back online. I finally got my life back, I don’t want to be forced to give it back up.

That’s the only thing I got right about my AL east predictions early in the year, the Orioles being bad is basically a given every year. After the first series I thought it would be the Red Sox and Orioles fighting for last place with both teams eventually finishing under 60 wins.

Getting no hit down 4-0 to having a lead, wow

Tie game!

LETS ****IN GO

lol he heard us

Why not pinch hit for that bum franchy

2 runs now Red Sox are actually making this a game

About time

I got my vaccine so I have already started living my normal life again, and I am not going back. Im not going to wear a mask to protect people who refuse to get vaccinated when they had had plenty of time and easy access to do so.

Just get a hit I don’t expect the Red Sox to win this game but at least show some fight cmon

Yeah he’s not ready yet. He has a lot of potential but he’s swinging at balls at his eyes right now. That is unacceptable.

Thats the type of winter where I nail most of my forecasts.

the strength of the La Niña is right now forecasted to be similar to 2017-2018, a high end weak nina, and it is a second year nina as well with increasing solar activity. However, by mid fall that La Niña hadn’t even formed yet, where as this Nina is forecasted to already be borderline moderate by then (like -.8). This is more similar to the progression of the super Nina of 2011 (much weaker in strength but similar in terms of peaking in the fall), that La Niña was already up to -1.6 by September! By December of 2011, the La Niña was still strong and maintained its strength for over 3 straight months. In my opinion this gave the atmosphere enough time to respond to the strong La Niña and allowed the atmospheric pattern to reflect La Niña the entire winter. Looking at the recent ocean temps in the enso region, the enso 3.4 region already is starting to tank, going from +.3 to -.1 over the past 3 weeks. The Pacific Ocean as a whole is starting to cool off as well, with it being a mix of cold and warm unlike last year where it was all warm. That warm blob in the northern pacific is still too far west though, and the sst configuration indicates that although we could see a more favorable pacific jet configuration, the strength of the pacific jet is still stronger than average, so there are some mixed signals for the winter of 2021-2022. I’m not going to issue an official winter forecast until November but right now my early thought on analogs would be 2020-2021 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, North Pacific blob west of ideal) 2017-2018 (good match with the strength of the nina, 2nd year nina, strong pacific jet but slightly more favorable location of North Pacific blob, Nina more east based which this one probably won’t be) 2010-2011 (good match with the fall peaking Nina and increasing solar, more central based like this one, though this Nina was much stronger and the pacific jet was weaker) right now I’m not seeing 1995-1996 as a great analog since I don’t think the pacific will be all that great, but I also think it won’t be as bad as last year, and the nina peaking in the fall as well as the strength should be favorable. I don’t like the pacific blob so far west though, and the Nina is forecasted to be more west based which isn’t ideal. However, the sst configuration on the Atlantic side looks pretty good so we have a good chance at getting more polar vortex intrusions than a garbage winter like 2011-2012. Overall the early signs are mixed but I would say they are more favorable than last year. What do you guys think? My favorite analog is 2017-2018, I think it’s most realistic looking at the early signs. Not a crazy record breaking wall to wall winter like 1995-1996, but still an above average winter even with the lull in mid winter and the warm spells. Way better than 2011-2012 and even about twice as much snow as last year.

Yeah 2013-2014 was a good winter but it left a lot on the table in my opinion, we narrowly missed a historic blizzard in late March that year, I remember the models had the strength of the low into the 940s at one point, if that had came up the coast, that would have likely been a widespread 3 footer. Even the severe blizzard in March 2018 that dropped 2 feet of snow where I live got down to the low 960s, just imagine a low in the 940s that is a slow mover coming up the coast! Had that storm hit, that winter would have been up there with the 2014-2015, 2010-2011, 1977-1978, 2004-2005, and 1995-1996 winters.

I don’t know how relevant this is but the strength of the La Niña is expected to peak in the fall, not the winter. With the winter of 2017-2018, (this upcoming Nina is forecasted to be similar in strength), the Nina didn’t peak until later. The La Niña hadn’t even formed yet by mid fall in 2017-2018, where as last year we were already at a high end moderate La Niña, 1995-1996 was already borderline moderate, and 2010-2011 was already a strong La Niña. My thought process is that when a La Niña increases in strength throughout the fall, by December whatever lag effect from when the Nina first forms to when the atmosphere responds with a Nina like pattern has already happened by December. This is a big deal for early winter, as I would think a Nina that peaks in the fall by December the Nina is already dominating the pattern, like Dec 2010, Dec 2020, Dec 1995, ect. In early winter, climo is not favorable enough that a purely southern stream system will get it done, that will likely just be a cold rain (like the early dec system last year, the one before the severe blizzard in mid December). You need the northern stream to get involved, otherwise eastern mass will get skunked. A La Niña pattern is more favorable for northern stream interaction leading to more snow NYC north early winter. Therefore my early thoughts are we have a decent shot at an active December with several Miller b blizzards, whether or not that pans out will depend on how the Enso forecast changes, and whether or not we get the polar vortex to cooperate. If the polar vortex goes to the North Pole and sits there the whole winter, it won’t matter what the Enso state is, we will be screwed like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. Those years both had favorable enso states for New England, but there just wasn’t enough cold with it all being bottled up in the North Pole. If we can get even a little bit of polar vortex cooperation in early December, watch out, we could have Dec 2010 all over again.

I remember the winter of 2012-2013 and 2013-14 were both cold neutrals, I would gladly take a repeat of either of those.

In recent weeks, the chances that we will have a favorable enso state for New England snow has increased significantly, with the newest guidance, especially the dynamical models shifting from an enso neutral (roughly 0 to -.3 degrees celsius) forecast) to a high end weak la nina (-.8 to -.9 degrees celsius). In my opinion, the shift from a cold neutral to a borderline weak/moderate strength Nina increases the ceiling of the upcoming winter with more northern stream interaction vs a cold neutral, creating more chances for severe Miller b blizzards.

It is too warm for a a 2010-2011 super nina type winter, but the subsurface has cooled quite a bit over the past few weeks. Just over a month ago there was talk of a possible weak or even moderate El Niño, but since then the subsurface, hurricane activity, and model guidance have been indicating La Niña. When combined with the tendency for moderate and strong ninas to have a double dip, I wouldn’t rule out a high end moderate or low end strong Nina yet. It is unlikely, but is still within the realm of possibilities. I’m leaning towards a 2017-2018 type of La Niña, both similar in strength and late blooming nature. The biggest red flag that the La Niña could be stronger than expected for me is the strength of the La Niña last year. Last year was a moderate La Niña, but it was a high end moderate/borderline strong Nina. That is the strongest La Niña we have had since the super Nina of 2010-2011. The stronger the first year Nina, the stronger the signal is for a double dip, and it also increases the ceiling of the Nina (usually ends up slightly weaker than the first).

Latest nnme enso forecast for the 2021-2022 winter

The most recent guidance has shifted from a cold neutral mean to a high end weak/borderline moderate Nina mean. This will likely have a significant impact on winter forecasts, as model enso forecasts become much more accurate by summer.

I haven’t heard of the declining arctic sea ice causing high latitude blocking, if anything I would think low arctic sea ice is an indicator that favors a more mild winter in New England due to a weaker cold air source. The Siberian snow cover thing I do believe has a lot of truth to it, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. In that 2018 winter we did have a brutal stretch of winter, it wasn’t a garbage winter by any means. It was a 2 week stretch that was really mild, but ended up being a snowier than average winter in the east. Someone who is more knowledgeable about this stuff would be able to explain it better in detail, but based on what I understand is the Hadley cell expansion increases the strength of the pacific jet overall, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold stretches, just means the mild stretches will outweigh the cold ones, and over time winters in New England will get less snowy on average. The extreme cold during that same winter occurred during a severe polar vortex intrusion into the United States, which is something that can dominate the pattern. You are right though that a lot of times people oversimplify the atmosphere. During the winter of 2019-2020 I got really excited when I heard there would be a polar vortex split because I assumed that meant New England would get hit by a barrage of severe blizzards, but then I learned what happens when the polar vortex splits to either the west coast instead of the east coast or even the other side of the globe entirely. That is when I learned that polar vortex split doesn’t necessarily mean good for snow, and can even mean the opposite. A lot of indicators that are oversimplified like that. They are still useful when used correctly though.

Recently, it has. Some areas reached 80 in feb 2018, Jan 2020, and 70s in Feb 2017. Historically, 80s in New England usually would wait until late April or even well into May, but the Hadley Cell got bigger, and our climate got warmer, and the rate that temps are increasing is accelerating.

I’m not super knowledgeable about this stuff, the Meteorologists here would be able to explain in more detail than I can. Based on what I have read though, the Hadley cell sits on both sides of the equator, up to 30N and 30S latitude, and due to climate change, the size of the Hadley cell is increasing. Right now they are predicting that the Hadley cell will expand 2 degrees of latitude on both sides, however historical climate change predictions have underestimated the increasing acceleration of the warming. Due to this it is very possible if not likely that the Hadley cell expands even more than that. If the acceleration in global warming doesn’t stop, in my opinion the Hadley cell will expand enough to engulf the whole planet. This is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, but still a very real concern that cannot be ignored, as we don’t want to screw over future generations and humanity as a whole. In my opinion the Hadley cell expansion is responsible for the pacific jet blasting the country with mild air, leading to areas as far north as central New England seeing 70+ degree and even 80s in mid winter. 70s and 80s in mid winter was unheard of until a decade or so ago, and it seems like we get a stretch like that at least every other year now. Climate change induced Hadley cell expansion is the most likely culprit for this. If anything I said here is inaccurate, those who are more knowledgeable about this stuff feel free to correct me.

The winter of 2018-2019 if anything acted like a super nino, wasn’t that the winter that the pacific jet went ballistic and flooded the country with mild air? The polar vortex didn’t help much but it did come down into the states at times (a bit west of ideal like this most recent winter, but it wasn’t parked over the North Pole like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020). 2018-2019 was forecasted to be an epic winter by many with multiple severe blizzards clobbering New England (understandably, since in November all the seasonal indicators looked really good), but the stronger than expected pacific jet meant we were just too warm, and meant the flow was just too fast so the northern and southern branches mostly stayed separate. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the reason weak ninos are usually so good for New England snow that you get just enough pac jet influence to energize the southern branch enough to increase the ceiling on storms we get, but not quite enough to flood the country with mild air? When you combine an active southern branch with a cooperative polar vortex you get several massive blizzards slamming into New England, producing a widespread 2ft+ of snow with hurricane force winds, like in 2014-2015. Idk if I’m off base here, but for some reason that 2018-2019 winter felt like we were always really close but the lows just kept tracking a bit too far west or we were just a couple degrees too warm to get a big snowstorm, a lot of missed opportunities. Other garbage winters like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 it felt like we never stood a chance. Honestly, the 2018-2019 pattern wasn’t even terrible even with the raging pacific jet. I feel like that type of pattern with just a slightly more favorable polar vortex as well as a slightly weaker pac jet and we could have had a big winter.