George001

I thought La Niña is still good for northern mid Atlantic like NYC area, North Jersey ect, even moderate and strong ones. 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 were both La Niña winters and the La Niña was not weak in either year. Those were both really good winters.

What golf handicap do you guys have? I’m not sure what mine is but I average 60-70 for 9 holes, so it’s fairly high. I have been told I need to keep my head down and watch the club head hit the ball.

In the winter of 2010-2011, the consensus by most forecasters was that winter was going to be awful due to the strong La Niña in place. Sometimes La Niña doesn’t couple with the atmosphere so it ends up not being a major driver of the weather pattern, but in 2010-2011 that was not the case. The 2010-2011 La Niña was strong no matter how you look at, ONI, MEI, subsurface, SOI every indicator you looked at reflected strong La Niña conditions. Going back and reading several winter forecasts, the consensus was that strong La Niña was not only in place but would be the dominant pattern driver, so winter would suck. That is one of several reasons the 2010-2011 winter is really fascinating for me, it was not only the winter that sparked my passion for severe blizzards, but it was supposed to suck and ended up being one of the snowiest winters on record in my area. I ask myself, how did this happen? If you look at the SST configuration in December 2010, you have an extremely strong west based La Niña, but even outside the Enso region temps were well below average in the entire eastern Pacific Ocean. On top of that you had warm waters slightly west of Greenland, which is an sst configuration that favors severe North Atlantic blocking, with the polar jet being forced to the south into the United States rather than locked up in the North Pole. While most forecasters missed this, there were a couple who did forecast a big winter despite the narrative that strong La Niña= ratter. Isotherm I know went big that year and discussed how the severe North Atlantic blocking as well as strong la nina would be the dominant pattern drivers, which would bring a big winter to areas farther north like New England a big winter, since while the storm track would be more north due to La Niña, you had severe North Atlantic blocking causing these lows to redevelop and come up the east coast rather than just cutting into Wisconsin and bringing us a rainstorm. However he did not go big farther south like DC due to the La Niña. This idea ended up being correct. If you compare that with the current sst pattern, the La Niña is much weaker, and the Pacific Ocean is warmer. However, there is that big area of warmer waters near Greenland. That was there last year as well, not quite as pronounced as 2010-2011 but still there. Last year we did get severe North Atlantic blocking at times, but the pacific jet was so strong that even with the blocking we would get several storms with a perfect track and just a cold rain with all that warm pacific air flooding the country. The SST configuration is even more favorable for North Atlantic blocking than it was last year, it looks more like 2010-2011 in that region. The pacific is more mixed, not on fire like last year but not well below average like 2010-2011 either. Things are looking really good right now for an above average winter.

The pac jet has been brutal for all of us but you guys in the mid Atlantic especially already don’t have as much room for error to begin with. I do agree with the narrative that what we have been seeing with the pac jet is more than just a cyclical thing that will revert eventually, while that plays a role in my opinion the biggest culprit is climate change. The climate change induced well above avg temps in the Pacific Ocean seems to be making it easier for the pac jet strengthen and go ballistic. Fortunately even if things are tougher than they used to, we are still going to have severe winters, just not as frequently. It is promising that the Pacific Ocean as a whole is much cooler than last year, hopefully the cooling of the Pacific Ocean continues.

To me it looks like there is a growing signal for a weaker pacific jet, if this trend continues this could mean this winter will look nothing like the 2015-2016 to 2020-2021 winters did in regards to the pacific.

In El Niño since there is limited northern stream interaction with an active southern branch dont you want less blocking because otherwise the storms go too far south and you get the blizzard of 2016, congrats mid Atlantic? Though that was really good in NYC and the coast of southern New England, more north areas got skunked due to the severe blocking. 2009-2010 also skunked areas north of NYC while NYC south got hammered with the strong nino+ severe North Atlantic blocking. Then in 2011 we had strong North Atlantic blocking again but a strong Nina instead and NYC north got hammered, my area got so much snow that year the weight of the snow on the roof it caused a leak with the paint dripping in. That happened only twice I can remember, the severe winters of 2010-2011 and 2014-2015. Do you by any chance have analogs of the severe North Atlantic blocking years for different enso states? I am curious to how that would impact the snow chances in southern New England. edit- lmao you already posted em before I finished writing my post

The next couple of weeks will be very telling about what the enso state is going to look like for winter. I’ve seen predictions for anything from weak El Niño to strong La Niña on this board, but the general consensus seems to be weak La Niña . That is consistent with what the CFSv2 is forecasting so there is alot of merit to that idea. I’m leaning stronger right now but it is very possible I am putting too much weight onto the MEI and subsurface as has been mentioned. However, I do expect the chances of La Niña this winter to increase to over 80% in the next update from roughly 60-70% in the July update. If we do get severe North Atlantic blocking this winter, which is what the early signs I’m looking at right now indicate, as crazy as it sounds my analogs for moderate or stronger la ninas are more favorable than the weak Nina or cold neutral (both of which are still more favorable than an average winter, but not as much as my early thought strong and moderate Nina analogs). Even if it’s not quite strong, I do think the La Niña will influence our pattern in the winter more than expected due to the low mei values, as well as the La Niña peaking in the fall which makes it so by the time December comes we are already in a full blown La Niña pattern. When a La Niña develops late like 2017-2018 (weak La Niña), it didn’t really influence our pattern a whole lot until later in the winter. On the other hand a winter like 2010-2011, La Niña was strong and well coupled with the atmosphere, so it was the main driver that influenced our weather that year the entire early December- late March period. An important detail that I confused in my earlier posts is that how much the La Niña is influencing our weather pattern isn’t necessary related to the strength of the La Niña. Last year while the La Niña was on the stronger side at -1.3 oni, it wasn’t dominating the pattern due to the weaker mei values. There were times where the pattern was more La Niña like but NYC getting more snow than Boston is not Nina like at all. I do think we will see a more La Niña like pattern this year, what that will look like depends on the strength. A low end moderate nina with severe North Atlantic blocking can lead to extreme winters with 3-4 severe blizzards as well as many decent sized storms on top of it. It seems like in stronger la ninas December and January are more favorable where as February and March are less favorable. Idk what the exact stats are but it seems like February usually sucks in ninas regardless of strength, where as March is decent in weak ninas, bad in Moderate or strong. Based on what ive read Strong La Niña is the most favorable Enso state there is for December and it’s a really strong signal too, kinda like Feb being big in weak ninos like 2014-2015.

A month ago I was looking at last year and 2017-2018 as my main analogs but viewing the most recent mei data Im starting to like 2010-2011 as a possible analog (it’s still very early so this is subject to change). 1995-1996 while I’d really like to see it, the Pacific Ocean right now is too warm and the western pacific blob is too far west for me to be on board with a pacific that favorable during the winter. What are your early thoughts? I was thinking since the MEI is already -1.5 even if by oni we don’t quite get to strong La Niña, that the atmospheric pattern will reflect strong La Niña. I’m looking forward to reading your winter forecast this year and comparing our ideas. When I post my winter forecast I welcome feedback from you guys who are more experienced.

Did you smoke something funny? I think you might have, when you’re high everything can be kinda a blur but if you think hard enough you will remember what it is you smoked. Whatever it was, I want some of it. You are smoking some good shit my man

Damn is that a pool of -5 in the subsurface of the Enso region? I would be shocked if we are Enso neutral by winter never mind El Niño.

El Niño is not supposed to develop. We are currently under a La Niña watch and the latest MEI index reading was -1.5, which indicates strong La Niña. The subsurface is only getting colder in the enso region, and when taking Nina climo into account as well as model forecasts the La Niña will likely continue increasing in strength into the fall and winter. In the model forecasts there is still a lot of variability, with the cfsv2 ensembles ranging from -.4 to -2.0 in the Enzo 3.4 region during the nov-dec timeframe. Right now the latest data indicates that the lower values are more likely to verify. I’m expecting around a -1.6 peak in the enso 3.4 region for this upcoming La Niña event which would be a strong La Niña.

This upcoming La Niña event reminds me of 2010-2011 even more now after seeing this MEI data.

MEI is a good indicator, I like it since sometimes even though you have a La Niña at the surface the atmospheric response doesn’t reflect it. In my opinion that is a better measure than ONI since it takes the atmospheric response into account too, so if you have a La Niña that isn’t coupled with the atmosphere the MEI will reflect that. What the MEI tells me is the atmospheric response reflects that of a strong La Niña, and this MEI value is the lowest we have had since 2011. An MEI value this low during the summer is extremely unusual, as la ninas typically peak later so an MEI value this low this early has only been seen in extremely strong La Niña events. Going back and looking at previous summers with an MEI value -1 or below you get the years 2021, 2020, 2010, 1999, 1998, 1989, and 1988. The data I’m looking at only goes back to 1979. The following winters we had 2020-2021: moderate la nina both oni and mei 2010-2011: strong la nina by oni, super nina by mei (strongest nina on record) 1999-2000: strong La Niña by oni, high end moderate by mei 1998-1999: strong La Niña by oni, moderate by mei 1989-1990: cold neutral by oni, warm neutral by mei 1988-1989: strong La Niña by oni, moderate La Niña by mei that is 5/6 winters with a -1 or below MEI by summer leading into a moderate or stronger La Niña by fall and winter. By ONI you get 4 strong ninas, one moderate Nina and one cold neutral, and by MEI you get one super nina, 4 moderate ninas and one warm neutral. In the dataset before 2021 the 3 lowest readings by MEI by this time of year were 2010, 1998, and 1988. All 3 of the following winters were at least moderate by Nina by mei, and all 3 were considered strong la ninas by oni. I am not convinced at all that this La Niña is going to be weak. This isn’t a perfect methodology due to small sample size issues, but i don’t think we should ignore that the 3 lowest mei readings since 1979 (but pre 2021) by summer all transitioned into strong la ninas by oni and at least moderate by mei. Also, it makes sense from a la nina climo point of view. Since la ninas tend peak in the fall or winter, when there is already a strong nina like atmospheric response in summer it would be expected that by fall and winter both the surface enso readings and atmosphere would reflect a strong La Niña.

This is a bold call but after looking at the latest subsurface data and the atmospheric pattern in place, Imy current forecast is for the La Niña to be stronger than last years La Niña, with a peak of -1.6 or so. Yes, right now the models are forecasting for the La Niña to stay at around -.8, but the recent data indicates that the subsurface is currently colder in the enso region than last year at this time, and last year peaked at -1.3.

Woah last year was a high end moderate/borderline strong La Niña and we are AHEAD of last years pace? A slightly later peaking and slightly weaker version of the 2010-2011 La Niña is not out of the question at this rate.

It looks like there is good North Atlantic blocking and oddly enough it brings us to a weak El Niño for the winter. I don’t like the western pacific ridge that far west though, that to me looks like the the Jet stream configuration would favor the Midwest and north west areas of New England like Buffalo for severe blizzards. However, the pacific jet appears to be average strength which is MUCH better than we have had in the last few years, which would give us more room for error in regards to storm track. Due to the severe North Atlantic blocking combined with a more north and western storm track, that screams miller b pattern where yes, lows will go to Buffalo and at times even Wisconsin, yet due to the severe North Atlantic blocking, the low redevelops under Long Island and just crawls up the coast. This pattern is no slam dunk 2014-2015 pattern, but it does have a very high ceiling with the potential for Miller b lows to just hit a wall and sit there right over cape cod, bringing a severe blizzard from NYC to eastern Maine. It’s a strange pattern for an El Niño, to me it looks more like a favorable strong La Niña pattern with severe North Atlantic blocking+ limited pacific jet+ farther west polar vortex intrusion and western pacific ridge over Alaska instead of western North America. That look reminds me of 2010-2011, although I would be very happy with a weak nino I don’t buy that at all, I strongly believe there will be a La Niña, possibly even a strong one.

What would you guys say the chances the La Niña increases in strength more than expected and becomes similar in strength to the 2010-2011 La Niña? I’m thinking it could strengthen more than expected due to the cooling in the enso 3.4 region being more than most models had us by now, the increasing soi, active tropics, and rapidly cooling subsurface.

I have been looking into it a bit more and not only is the temperatures in the enso region (both surface and subsurface) starting to decrease, but tropical storm activity and the SOI is increasing. Both of these things indicate that the atmospheric pattern reflects La Niña. The Enso 3.4 region being down to -.5 degrees below average already in late July would put us on track to follow the coldest members of the cfs v2 enso forecast ensembles. The mean right now for that model is roughly -.8 in the enso 3.4 region, however by now the mean had us at roughly -.3 in the enso 3.4 region and we are at -.5. Many of the ensembles in the cfs v2 model that have us at -.5 by now take us to a moderate La Niña. With how the atmosphere and subsurface look combined with the trend of the models with each update increasing the strength of the La Niña forecasted for winter, I would not be surprised if the La Niña is already at moderate strength by September, potentially increasing even more and becoming stronger than last years La Niña. I know I said I was thinking -.8 to -.9 was likely before but looking at the latest data I’m starting to believe we could see a peak of -1.2 to -1.6 in the fall.

woah, we are already down to -.5 in nino 3.4 over the past week. That’s already low end weak Nina territory and the negatives in the subsurface have strengthened rapidly. I didn’t think the Nina would develop this quickly, could the models be underestimating the strength of the La Niña? I’m starting to think we are going to see a moderate La Niña in the fall.

This is a very good sign, still early of course but something to watch. This does not guarantee a big winter (could easily end up being too far west) but i would rather see this than a signal for polar vortex consolidation over the North Pole.

Severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina is a great setup for us. The best setups are probably severe North Atlantic blocking+ Nina and weak nino+ Slightly displaced eastern Canada polar vortex+ Western north american ridge with Limited North Atlantic blocking. In the winter of 2014-2015 we had hardly any North Atlantic blocking, but had a perfectly positioned polar vortex, although it was near the North Pole and did not split that year, it was stretched out (polar vortex displacement) which allowed cold air intrusions to enter the eastern half of the country. In my opinion the lack of North Atlantic blocking helped us to an extent (after the first blizzard, that one had North Atlantic blocking and was more northern stream driven, a Miller b). If we had severe blocking in 2015 many of those feb blizzards would have missed to the south.

It seems like in New England if there is a Nina you want more severe North Atlantic blocking to turn what would be storms cutting to our west and bringing us rain into Miller bs that redevelop over Long Island or the Jersey shore before coming up the coast, going right over cape cod or the islands. Where as with ninos we actually want less North Atlantic blocking because ninos tend to have a farther south storm track to begin with, with an active southern branch but limited northern branch interaction (especially in stronger ninos). In both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 we had severe North Atlantic blocking but 09-10 was a ratter in New England (except NYC, Metfan probably loved that winter), where as in 2010-2011 New England got hammered. In my opinion the reason we got hammered in 2010-2011 instead of the mid Atlantic in 2009-2010 despite both years having severe North Atlantic blocking is the Enso state. In 2009-2010 we had a strong El Niño where as in 2010-2011 we had a super Nina.

That’s true, hippies tend to be skeptical of the vaccines as well and they are as far left as it gets.

Yankees need to move on from Boone

Anti vaxxers piss me off but I still don’t want to see them die. I’m just going to say it, anti vaxxers are Republican. Even Trump admitted that most anti vaxxers voted for him, and encouraged his supporters who are skeptical to get vaccinated. I don’t have anything against Republicans, hell I even lean conservative myself so I understand where they are coming from with being skeptical of the government. People see all these breakthrough cases, hear about the side effects, ect. These are real things, but people don’t dig deeper and look at the breakthrough cases and look at the percentage of total cases that are breakthrough cases, the percentage of people who get severe side effects, the percentage of breakthrough cases people get hospitalized for, death ect. If you know someone personally who got really sick even though they got vaccinated or had severe side effects then it’s understandable why they might be skeptical. When people close to you are getting hurt it can be very hard to think logically. Instead of putting these people down a better approach would be to try to educate them. Just to be clear I’m not saying every Republican is an anti vaxxer, I have an uncle who is a very strong Republican who voted for Trump twice, and is a conspiracy theorist, yet he got vaccinated.