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Everything posted by George001
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I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run.
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I did, I looked at the upper levels on the models instead of just using surface temps and they seem to support my idea of higher ratio snow like the Superbowl Sunday storm.
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Miller b
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I’m definitely a huge weenie but in my opinion James has earned the #1 spot with his 40 inch forecasts for cape cod and his book. I’m planning on buying a copy. Though on the other form I did call for 3-4 feet for the Jan 29th threat that ended up going out to sea, that ended up being a huge bust.
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I use a 60/25/15 euro Canadian navy blend. I completely ignore the 10:1 snowfall maps when making my forecast, I am looking at things like jet dynamics, temps in the upper levels, ect. To me everything is screaming high ratio overperformer, Imo the euro evolution would get most areas to the lower end of my forecast, with the Canadian getting most areas to the higher end.
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It took me 2 weeks. They said I wasn’t learning but I disagree. When I first joined that forum I didn’t even know what a La Niña was and now I know what La Niña, El Niño, and even the polar vortex are.
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Triple that and you got my forecast.
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I’m forecasting 16-20 for your area
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I strongly agree. All of mass and parts of NH/VT/ME are getting hammered.
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There are 2-3 lows with this storm, so even if the 1st mostly hits areas to the SW we could still get hit by the next low.
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Where did James go? When I used to lurk here I enjoyed reading his forecasts even if they were often way too high on the cape. I remember in one of the blizzards during that epic March a few years ago James forecasted 40+ for the cape.
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I would take that and run, 0 complaints with that solution.
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Yep I absolutely am. I don’t buy the se trend at all due to the se ridge and the strength of the La Niña. As is even if we only got .50-.75 in liquid like many models are saying that would pile up fast due to the the cold upper levels of the atmosphere increasing the snow ratios. Dynamics will not be a problem with a massive amount of jet energy ramming well inland reminiscent of the Superbowl Sunday storm. In that storm my area got approximately .5 liquid equivalent and a foot of snow, meaning the models weren’t even wrong with the precip, the snow output busted because the ratios were more like 20-25:1 rather than 10:1. I expect the models to correct back NW, not a lot, but just enough to get heavy snows back into Worcester and even western mass. 16-20 jackpot isn’t a huge stretch considering when accounting for ratios we would probably be getting around 12-15 anyways if that nam run came to verify. I love where we are right now for the Friday storm, I am much more confident than I was a few days out when the gfs was snowing a snowstorm but the other models were showing snow to mix. In this pattern, the risk is rain like we got today not a miss to the south.
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In my opinion we will see around quadruple those numbers, euro isn’t by any means bad (it has 6-8 inches using kuchera which I think is underdone looking at the dynamics and temps), Canadian is extremely close to blizzard conditions in eastern mass, and the navy has over 30 hours of snow.
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I stand corrected, the 240 hours looks good but when rolled forward the european guidance seems to want to end the good pattern and go nuts with the se ridge. Do you have the map for the upper latitudes as well? The location of the polar vortex is key to whether this is just a quick warmup or an early spring. I thought for sure that 240 hour look would get even better as we went into early March.
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I have a question in regards to enso state and how favorable each enso state is for snowfall. I know the mid Atlantic prefers moderate and strong ninos, and areas like northern Maine prefer strong ninas, but what about southern new England? There are some risks associated with both ninos and ninas, but i would think overall ninas are more favorable due to our latitude protecting us from the se ridge to an extent.
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This looks really good for us, somewhat similar to what I described in my post in regards to my March forecast. It looks like a piece of the polar vortex broke off from the main central-western Canada lobe and is chilling in eastern Canada, which is our cold source. Then to the southeast you have a La Niña induced southeast ridge, with a gradient between that will create a boundary. There is also energy coming into the west coast, which looks like it will move across the country and try to cut into Ohio due to the southeast ridge, but will be forced to redevelop underneath the polar vortex lobe in southeast Canada. The storms look to weaken in the Midwest and redevelop somewhere off the SE Jersey coast where the boundary is. DC will likely get screwed and Philly looks to be on the edge due to the Miller bs developing too late for them. Looking at where the gradient is this appears to be the type of pattern where NYC north gets hammered. This looks a lot better than it did a week ago and gives me confidence that I have the right idea as we head into March.
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If anything this is the type of pattern you would see in a record strong La Niña with the pacific cooled off so much that arctic air doesn’t modify much if at all before reaching Texas. I should have specified southEAST states being well above avg, there is a lot of cold in the southwest right now.
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Euro looks to still have the Miller b for the 23rd, though it’s a bit too far north this run.
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Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us.
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Fair point, but in a setup like this with cold upper levels as well as surface, and strong jet dynamics, I would lean towards even those kuchera maps being underdone like they were during the Superbowl storm. There is tons of jet energy with this system, which leads me to believe that the models are underestimating the precip from the storm.
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This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better.
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how come the euro is so dry? That’s kinda concerning, hopefully just a blip run.
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One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. If the models have 6-80 inches of snow with temps in the 20s, I would double that and make a forecast. I’m going to stick to my earlier forecast with 12-15 in the Boston area and more to the NW.