George001

I’m up to 16 buns now lol

I disagree, at least for east coast storms the Canadian is one of the best OP models, up there with the Euro and Navy. The Gfs and Icon are the garbage models not worth looking at.

Yep, this run the timing is off, but if we can get just a bit more northern stream interaction that will help with the cold air, increase the strength of the low, and bring it farther west. On this run it’s mostly southern stream until a tiny piece of energy from the northern branch phases in last min. All it takes is a small increase in strength as well as a slightly farther south dig from the northern branch and things get very interesting.

I thought the models were trending in the right direction with the fast flow issue going away and the pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and delivering cold shots to the east. I know the models don’t show anything but I would rather see a good pattern on the models with no low than a garbage pattern with a low. Get the pattern first and the lows will sometimes pop up sometimes out of nowhere.

It’s understandable why you thought it was over, I did too, I even made a post ending winter. However the latest guidance is showing a pattern favorable for intense cyclogenesis starting as far south as the Carolina coast. With a more amplified flow, there is more room for the northern branch and the southern branch of the jet stream to phase. In the pattern the EPS is showing past March 5th, there isn’t energy crashing into the west coast flattening the flow, which would give the northern branch of the jet stream to dig farther south, phase with the southern branch, tilt negatively and come up the coast. When you get a pattern like that especially in March with the enhanced thermal gradient, watch out for extreme cyclogenesis (a good example of this is March 1993).

Is this just me being a weenie looking at the maps through snow goggles, or does the EPS actually look decent for the March 5th-8th timeframe for a storm potential? I may have given up on winter too soon, during that time frame on the EPS it shows a more amplified flow. It has a big ridge on the west coast instead of the east, and due to the amplified flow that doesn’t roll east and bring warm pacific air with it. Instead, as the EPS approaches the March 8th timeframe, the amplified flow allows cold air to filter into the eastern US straight from Canada, with the freezing line at the upper levels getting as far south as North Carolina. That’s not pacific air, that air is coming straight from the North Pole. While there will be a big warm up in early March with a ridge in the east and the polar vortex over the North Pole, the models are now breaking a piece of the polar vortex off which delivers a blast of cold air. Unlike last week where it looked like the vortex was going to sit in the North Pole for all of March, it looks like the polar vortex might cooperate after all. Yes, the EPS doesn’t actually show a storm during that timeframe, but it shows a great pattern that must be watched for a potential late season blizzard with possibly even more threats behind it if the pattern sets in before we warm up for good. This pattern really excites me, when I see pieces of the polar vortex breaking off and moving into eastern Canada like that instead of sitting at the North Pole, it makes me think cold air will not be a huge issue. When you combine this more favorable polar vortex development with a more cooperative pacific, allowing the flow to amplify and slow down, this indicates increased chances of a slow moving blizzard that undergoes cyclogenesis, fueled by the clash of the polar vortex induced cold with the warmer March waters in the gulf and off the southeast coast. Could this lead to Miller As track over us, crush more western areas with a massive blizzard while it rains in eastern mass? Yeah, ptype issues is definitely a risk, especially with the clash of Arctic and tropical air occurring as off the Carolinas. Cyclogenesis that occurs this early and far south while great for a monster sub 970 mb low also brings the risk of the low tucking in to much and raining over eastern Mass. At least the pattern is favorable, and compared to how things looked a week ago, that’s all I can ask for.

this map is more let’s make a run at 70s and 80s than snow.

Yeah I see where I went wrong now, the higher MEI values were in April, up from -.8 in March. Going by MEI that Nina was weak, ONI it was weak borderline moderate during the WINTER of 2018 lol

It has -1.29 as the peak on both your chart and this one, though it peaked in March/April.

The winter of 2017-2018 was actually a moderate La Niña, it peaked at -1.0 degrees Celsius going by ONI, and -1.3 degrees celcius going by MEI. By MEI the 2017-2018 La Niña was actually high end moderate, borderline strong.

2014-2015 is the best winter I have ever seen in my life. Tons of Miller B blizzards. However the polar vortex was more elongated into Canada that year. This March on the models the polar vortex isn’t only over the North Pole but it’s strong and consolidated, which is more like 2011-2012 and last years pattern. That’s a cancel winter pattern.

Unfortunately it does. It looked great on the models a couple of weeks but then the models started breaking the pattern down and consolidating the polar vortex over the North Pole.

I don’t buy the upcoming storm being wintry at all. The polar vortex is over the North Pole which won’t allow cold air to come in and give us a huge blizzard. That storm on the european guidance looks like its rain even into the mountains in VT/NH/ME. A polar vortex over the North Pole is the type of atmospheric driver that dominates the pattern, and as long as it’s there it’s nearly impossible to get a winter storm in the east.

2010-2011 is the strong Nina on record going by MEI, so I would count it as a super Nina. Your other points are valid though, I focus too much on my backyard rather than the actual pattern in place when drawing my conclusions which is flawed logic. I’ll concede I was wrong about super ninas favoring more huge events than strong ninos, however I still would rather have a strong Nina. I would rather have a bunch of 6-12 type storms with cold nearby than have a super mild and snowless winter with one 2 footer that melts in 2 days.

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 were garbage here with no big ones (18+) in New England (2016 missed to the south as is typical with strong ninos) only 1982-1983 had a massive blizzard in New England. Last 3 super Nina seasons 2010-2011 3 massive blizzards bringing 18+ inches to areas of the region with several smaller events on top of that 2007-2008 no bigger storms, a bunch of 6-12 type storms. 1999-2000- garbage. Conclusion: last 3 big ninas, 3 big ones. Last 3 big ninos, one big one. Big ninas are more favorable for big ones in New England than big ninos. In the Mid Atlantic, big ninos are much more favorable for big ones.

Another reason why big ninos suck is not only do they screw us that year, but for the next several years until we cool off the ocean. Not saying it’s the Nina that does this, as that idea I had has been refuted, but maybe the atmosphere drivers that allow a big Nina to form cools off the ocean as well. Regardless, if we want pac help in the following years it would make sense to root for a big Nina. For example look at the big nino in 2009-2010. After that winter, we didn’t get a really favorable pac until 2013 (even the epic winter of 2010-2011 was mostly Atlantic driven). After the big Nina in 2010-2011, we had one garbage pac winter follow, then 3 consecutive great pac winters until the super nino in 2016. I strongly believe that the super nino of 2016 screwed us in the following winters as well and is why we haven’t had any pacific help since the epic 2014-2015 winter. If we had a big nina earlier like the year right after I don’t think we would have been stuck in pac hell for 5 straight years, but it would have been more like 2-3 years. Since we didn’t get any help to cool off the ocean there isn’t anything to stop the flow from getting flatter and mild air from flooding the country.

This is a quote taken from the mid Atlantic board. It seems to indicate that my previous idea of the pacific being on fire destroying our winter in the east has some merit. It also gives merit to my idea of strong ninas being necessary to cool off the ocean, otherwise the jet energy coming off from the pacific will intensify so much that it will overwhelm the pattern. It would both flood the country with warmth and flatten the flow. The strong nino in 2016 screwed us not only that winter but for the next several years as well, with there being only a few good periods (during ninas) in a period of warmth. “Solar has been way, way off. That last cycle was weak(as predicted due to the sun going so quiet around 2010 I think). That definitely coincides with a lack of moderate/strong La Ninas. I always think moderate to strong La Ninas reset the temp gradient in the equatorial Pacific. For those of you who don't know what I am speaking of(I know Tellico does), we are used to weak El Ninos being great winter weather signals. However, for the El Nino to be a strong winter wx signal in the East, the Sea Surface Temps(SSTs) need to be colder in the places which are not part of the El Nino. The stronger that tempdifferential(the gradient) between the Nino and the rest of thePacific, the more likely the El Nino behaves as normal. With SSTs above normal in much of the Pac for the past 4-5 years, the Nino climatology was been washed out. I am hoping that this La Nina will allow the next Nino to have a stronger gradient and behave more as a Nino would. As Tellico notes, all of this is likely tied together. And again, the AMO cycle is only about 2/3 of the way through - maybe it will end early? I do hold out hope that this year's unexpected -NAO cycle this winter might well be a harbinger of better winters to come.”

I would take a -5 degree Celsius Nina over a moderate or stronger nino regardless of structure. 2009-2010 was supposedly modoki and that didn’t stop it from giving DC blizzard after blizzard while we got screwed. I can’t think of a single strong nino that produced an epic winter here, modoki or not. That said, I looked at another chart and it says that weak nino is the best for us out of all Enso states like you said. For my winter forecast, if I see a mod or strong nino I’m not forecasting more than 35-40 inches in Boston and that’s if every other factor is favorable. Only weak nino is good otherwise it’s congrats DC, Richmond, Baltimore, ect.

according to this chart, Boston averages around 40 in strong ninas and low 30s in Strong ninos. Weak ninos are actually really good here, but moderate and strong ninos suck here. That’s why it’s weird to me to see the strong Nina=ratter idea being thrown around on a New England forum, our chances in a strong Nina are around the same as our chances during an enso neutral winter. The only enso states that signal below-well below average are mod-strong ninos.

In DC I agree, but in southern New England ninas are generally better. I would rather have a record strong Nina than another strong nino, those always seem to screw us. http://www.solarstorms.org/Boston.html data shows that Boston averages more snow in ninas than ninos overall.

I agree, this winter left some on the table considering the pattern. A great example of bad luck is 2/1, I got about 8 inches but just a 30 min drive to the NW and there’s 18 inches of snow. My area wasn’t even the area to get screwed over the most, Boston got like 2 inches and just 10 miles to the NW had nearly 2 feet, thats about as sharp a gradient you can get. That’s just plain bad luck, in my opinion 9/10 winters with similar atmospheric drivers to this one would have SNE getting hammered with 70+ inches of snow (except maybe the cape, r/s lines are extremely hard to avoid there). The polar vortex was just a bit too far west, but it was close. It’s not like the last 2 years where it was sitting over the North Pole.

Yeah I misunderstood your point, I thought you were saying Strong ninas in general are bad. I haven’t dug up the data yet on 2nd year mod-strong ninas yet but just off the top of my head we have 2011-2012, 2017-2018, and I believe there was one in the late 90s that sucked as well. If 2011-2012 is an analog that’s a very bad sign. I would have thought with 2 ninas in a row the Nina pattern would be more “set in” the second year so it would give us better chances and better winter patterns. It seems like the data is indicating the opposite, so how I thought it works is incorrect. Maybe it’s more like Rays load blown south west idea in that a miller a bombing out really far south isn’t necessarily good for us compared to a Miller B that bombs out over Nantucket. For the La Niña maybe the Nina “blows it’s load” and gives a more Nina pattern the first year but by the time the second year comes around the Nina, while still in place, isn’t really driving the pattern anymore. Another tricky aspect of forecasting is climate change, as certain atmospheric drivers that did one thing in the past may not do the same now with the warmer temps. For example a pattern with a bunch of marginal wet snow storms 50 years ago might just give us rain now.

I disagree, the dead ratter Enso state in New England is a strong El Niño, that’s the enso state we avg the least amount of snow in. I’ll take a record strong Nina over a record strong El Niño any day. In fact the strongest La Niña on record, 2010-2011, was an epic winter NYC north. This winter ended up as an avg-above avg winter here, but was very close to being more. From what I read over at the pattern drivers thread the nina pattern didn’t really take over until Feb, which is when we got our snowiest month. I don’t really understand the anti Nina sentiment here, our area does fairly well in ninas, it’s the mid Atlantic that gets screwed by them. Ninos tend to screw us and be congrats DC when moderate or strong (we can do well in weak ninos though).

Right now I’m leaning big NYC north, because I believe there will be a record strong La Niña next year that will overwhelm and dominate the pattern (strength exceeding -2 degrees Celsius on both the ONI and MEI chart). I posted my reasoning behind why I believe we are going to have a record strong La Niña next winter, however it is WAY too early and if my idea about the enso state is wrong then I am going to have to adjust my preliminary thoughts. This is why I’m not planning on writing up my forecast until November.

Strongly agree that long range forecasts should hedge AN until proven otherwise. The world is a lot warmer than it used to be. Next year is going to be my first official winter forecast, I have already shifted my focus from this winter to next winters atmospheric drivers. My official winter forecast will be released in November 2021.