George001

This has my attention because most of Allsnows posts the past 2 years have been favoring warmth to the extent he was accused of having a warm bias. He ended up being right, as the past 2 winters had near record warmth in the east.

I hope so, but I am skeptical of December as a whole especially given the recent warming trends in the ENSO region as well as the tendency for guidance to underestimate MJO amplitude. I’m not expecting any flakes before Christmas week for my area.

My issue is 2 of the 4 key ENSO regions are straight up in warm neutral territory. The RONI is rising too, it’s in Nina territory still but barely. I would not expect a moderate to strong Nina base state like 07-08, 10-11, 11-12, 22-23, 20-21 etc given the recent trends. Either way, I agree with you that guidance is too cold for the 1st week of December. The tendency has been for guidance to underestimate the MJO amplitude this fall, if that continues we should expect to see higher amplitude MJO in the warm phases and thus a correction warmer during the early to mid December period.

The whole Nina background state this, Nina that idea might need to be tossed out the window. All guidance busted way too cool with the ENSO projections, it’s mid November and ENSO 4 and 1.2 are in WARM neutral territory while ENSO 3.4 and 3 are right at +0.0. Guidance has ENSO 3.4 cooling again, but I’m skeptical of the more aggressive solutions given what we have seen this fall.

I was exactly that a couple years ago. I learned the hard way, all you do is set yourself up for disappointment when you wishcast and have unreasonable expectations.

You are entirely correct that people would believe the models if they showed warmth. Unfortunately the elephant in the room is the current background state, it favors warmth. Until that changes, it makes sense to be skeptical of colder solutions and favor the warmer guidance.

On second thought 10-11 isn’t really a good analog. That winter had an extremely strong Nina background state with low solar. The solar being the opposite isn’t enough to eliminate it as an analog, but now with the Nina fizzling out it really isn’t a good match. The whole Nina fizzling out thing has me skeptical of the whole strong Nina background state idea. On the weeklies, Nino 4 is +0.2C, Nino 3.4 is 0.0C, Nino 3 is 0.0C and Nino 1.2 is +0.2C. It is mid November and there is 0 signs of La Niña developing, every ENSO region has actually been warming lately.

Models are useful tools, but especially in the long range they are often wrong. The PDO has risen but right now it’s still nearly -2. It has been very warm so far this fall, I want cold as much as anyone but I’ll believe it when I see it. I do buy that we will see the occasional cold spell, but am skeptical that the cold stretches will last as long or longer as the warm stretches. Ultimately though, we won’t really have an idea until around mid December whether this winter is going down the warmer/less favorable path (01-02, 16/17, 21-22 would be analogs if this does happen) or the colder/more favorable path (08-09, 10-11, 13-14 as analogs if this happens). I hope I am wrong but gun to head, I would bet on the warmer path.

14-15 was pretty much the exact opposite situation. Despite ultimately being a cold and snowy winter, we had a torch December and the first half of Jan was warm too. Then we had a frigid rest of winter (2.5 months of BN temps, 1.5 months of AN). So really the torch Dec-first half of Jan was the mismatch within a large scale favorable base state (weak modoki Nino, raging +PDO).

My issue with the relying on a mismatch pattern inside a large scale unfavorable base state is it doesn’t last. Best case scenario is a 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 winter (depending on where you live), both of which had longer unfavorable periods than favorable ones. 20-21/21-22 just doesn’t move the needle. Both winters finished well AN temp wise and had limited snowpack retention. Ultimately the only real hope for a real old school New England winter (like 13-14/10-11/08-09) is a large scale change in the base state. I realize that’s fairly unlikely, but are there any cold ENSO winters you can think of that had this happen mid winter? Only one I can think of is 12-13, which torched both Dec and Jan and then was a cold and snowy Feb-Mar. I guess 14-15 but the background state was favorable going in, this is a completely different situation so I don’t see that as a possible analog even for best case scenario.

March is a winter month

I was referring to the last extended run as well as MJO forecast of another track through phases 4-6. In that run it was one week of BN temps during the first week of December before flipping warm the next 2 weeks until the run ends. The warm periods being longer than the cold periods is bad news. And it’s difficult to be optimistic when there really hasn’t been any cold during the fall.

That’s why I’m holding off for now despite things not looking good. If it’s warm the next 2 weeks but there are signs of sustained cold in the medium and long range on guidance, that’s fine. But I don’t like seeing the MJO spending so much time is phases 4-6, and most years with a similar temp and precip profile in November have gone on to be bad winters. That doesn’t mean this winter will be bad, but warmth in November and December is never a good sign. I want to see signs of a 2 week warm/ 2 week cold split rather than a 3 week warm/ 1 week cold split. The former isn’t going to lead to an amazing winter, but my area would be in the game. The latter scenario is game over. Fair point about 16-17 though. Things looked somewhat promising early and then that winter went to shit, while 12-13 was the opposite (torch Dec-Jan, cold and snowy Feb-Mar). Just to be clear, I’m not giving up on the possibility of a near average snow season even if we go down the warmer analog path. 2016-2017 was actually an above average snow winter for my area, but the snowpack retention was awful and it was +5 AN temps, so I consider that to be a F winter anyways.

I was more optimistic a month ago, but things change. It’s important to be objective and make adjustments as we get new information. There are 2 possible paths, the 08-09/10-11/13-14 one or the 16-17/01-02/21-22 one. Unfortunately, we appear to be trending towards the second camp.

Correct. Things do not look good at all, all the fall indicators looked bad. It has been very very warm so far this November, and it has also been very dry. I was holding out a glimmer of hope that the long range guidance had a clue with the shift to a -EPO pattern, but that is already looking transient. 3 weeks of warmth, a week of cold and then December starts and right back to warm. If that 3 weeks warm 1 week cold rinse and repeat pattern continues into the winter, there is no realistic hope for winter prospects in the East. You need at least a 2 week warm/2 week cold, otherwise you are relying on getting lucky in a bad pattern which is not sustainable. I’m not pulling the plug yet, too early but if I don’t see any signs of sustained cold in the next 2 weeks in the medium range I am out on this winter.

The guidance does look promising for the pacific, but I’m pumping the breaks unless we get much closer in and see no signs of the pac breaking down on the long range guidance. If that happens, I will start getting very excited. I do buy that we will have a window of a favorable pac, but if it is short lasting that will be extremely concerning for winter prospects. Too early to tell which scenario will verify.

Im not making any claims about the result (mainly because I don’t know, I haven’t looked at this yet), but I would expand it out to top 30 driest falls. 5 is too small of a sample size.

The signal is fairly strong now on guidance, for me the question is how long will this -EPO/-WPO last? If it has real staying power and persists into mid-late Dec we would already be rapidly deviating from some of the worst case analogs (01-02, 22-23 etc). If it only lasts a few days or so then that will be concerning.

What I will say is while the expected outcome for this winter is AN temps and BN snow, in my opinion this winter has more “upside” than the last. The most prohibitive ENSO state for AN snowfall in New England (especially ski areas) is a potent Nino. When you combine that with a -PDO, things look even worse. Even the absolute best analog last year gave my area 100-110% of average snowfall with normal to slightly above normal temps (57-58). But…… when you adjust for climate change all of a sudden that analog looks really unfavorable for east coast snow. The best case analog this year (13-14) had more like 140-150% of normal snow with well BN temps.

It’s good to look for possible reasons why the consensus is wrong, but looking at it objectively things don’t look great for the east coast this winter. While it certainly COULD be a colder than normal winter with lots of snow, given the fall pattern (especially what we have seen in November so far) and background state the probability is skewed heavily in favor of AN temps and BN snow for the east this coming winter. There are a bunch of valuable tools and methods used by members of this forum that support this, and that is an incredibly valuable thing whether or not they show what we want to see. I’m looking for reasons why the consensus could be wrong too, but it’s important to keep in mind that the consensus is a higher probability outcome. There is absolutely nothing wrong with going against the consensus, but you need a good reason to do so and it is important not to let your analysis be clouded by bias (Something I struggle with myself, though I do feel like I have improved a lot over the past couple of years in this area).

I’m definitely more bullish on winter than most, but some of the things I’ve seen so far in November have me concerned. That said, I agree it’s a good idea to think outside the box and ask what could go wrong. I have a few things in mind: 1. The currently strongly -PDO continues to weaken and ends up only moderately or even weakly negative for the second half of winter 2. In the second half of this hurricane season, guidance has repeatedly underestimated the strength of developing lows in the gulf. It is possible this continues into the winter, especially if the ocean temps remain elevated (AGW isn’t going anywhere, so this is very likely). During our windows of opportunity, digging shortwaves may be able to tap that gulf moisture leading to bigger storms coming up the coast. This could lead to a snowier than expected outcome even if seasonal guidance has the right idea about the temp profile. 3. The expected +NAO is more south based than seasonal guidance is indicating, leading to a colder outcome for New England. 4. El Niño begins to to rapidly develop in the second half of winter (note: this is not supported by any guidance whatsoever) 5. Something that didn’t cross anyone’s mind pops up and derails the consensus winter forecasts. From most likely to least: 5 > 2 >>> 3 >>> 1 >>>>>>> 4

With how November is looking I am inclined to agree with this. The question is what is the magnitude of the warmth, and how long are the favorable vs unfavorable windows? Are we looking at +2f or closer to +5f? If we are looking at a shitty pattern like 15-16, 16-17, 22-23, etc where it’s closer to the +5 end, I would bet on well below normal snow. In my opinion if you run winters like 15-16 and 16-17 through a simulation, it would be well BN snow 9/10 times. The whole “relying on a 2 week window in a sea of shit” thing isn’t a sustainable way to get to average or above average snow. This is more true up north where it takes more than one big storm to get to average.

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s.

Yep a raging +EPO is bad news for the east. I would be skeptical of any modeled snow outside of NNE/elevations with that look -NAO or not. It could be interesting for ski areas in CNE though if the +EPO backs off some in early December. Areas more SE will need to wait longer, how much longer depends on what happens with the pacific pattern.

I’m expecting a stronger than normal PV this year but this is much more promising than the earlier runs where it was near record strong and showed no signs of weakening.