George001

The nam has a warm layer in the upper levels but it is freezing at the surface. I’m starting to think we could be getting an ice storm.

The big question will be how long does the pattern last before the next warm up and when the next warmup does happen, how long will it be? I’m very optimistic based on what I see on the long range guidance. The pattern on the models looks very similar to the types of patterns we get in our snowier La Niña years. March 2018, Jan 2011, ect. We wasted a couple weeks of December in a mild and snowless pattern, but that is not a problem at all. Even 2-4 weeks of this pattern will likely produce at least 1 if not 2 Miller B storms that bring blizzard conditions to eastern Mass. 2018 we got a blizzard early Jan, then an extended thaw, then all hell broke loose in March and we had one severe 2 foot blizzard just days after a nor’easter that gave my area 8 or so inches of snow. That pattern lasted 4 weeks. If this one lasts 4 weeks then we will have a March 2018 pattern in JANUARY. Maybe the storm around Christmas doesn’t pan out, just like the first storm didnt pan out in early March 2018 (was rain because the temps were a bit too warm), but even if it doesn’t what is important is we will have plenty of chances. Everything is lining up for a big winter, weak well coupled La Niña (likely peaks at about -.8 to -9), basin wide but biased east, so the structure of the La Niña is favorable. The MJO is going into phases 7 and 8, and the strong polar vortex that was the driving factor behind our mild first half of December is expected to stop deepening and start weakening. All great signs for not only this window, but windows of opportunity in Feb and March as well.

The Canadian is showing why having blocking is so important, the 20-21st low actually misses out to sea, but due to the severe North Atlantic blocking the low cannot move, it just sits there. That gives the northern stream more time to catch up, phase with the southern low that is way offshore and hook it back in just enough to result in a big storm in new england. It may not evolve exactly that way, but it shows that there is a lot of room for error.

The closer range storm threat isn’t anything big but if the european guidance is correct could be a 3-6/4-8 type deal which is really good for this time of the year. The North Atlantic blocking is just starting to build in at that point, and it appears the flow is still fast so I don’t think there is a ton of room for error, but still something to keep an eye on. Now the next storm threat, that one I think is going to be big. By then the North Atlantic blocking is well established, and there is a high pressure to the north with temps in the teens right to the coast the night before the storm on the Canadian guidance. On the European guidance, the low misses to the south, but there are some big hits on the ensembles. Everything we need is there, cold, North Atlantic blocking, digging northern stream energy, southern energy to phase with, ect.

I am now on board with this pattern, unlike that last “threat” with the garbage gfs giving Boston 18 inches of snow (didn’t even get an inch), this threat actually has North Atlantic blocking in place to give us more room for error. The pattern is very amplified, fast flow isn’t going to be an issue in my opinion with the blocking in place. The models will show the low cutting to Wisconsin, but with the North Atlantic blocking in place that will likely correct to a slow moving Miller B that buries eastern Mass. I do think we may get one big one in December but am expecting all hell to break loose in January.

Hopefully weak

In the longer range the polar vortex is expected to stop deepening and start weakening. It’s ok if it’s strong now, if it’s still strong mid January then we have a problem.

Hopefully the pattern change lasts at least 4-6 weeks before another thaw. I’m glad to see that the pattern is going to change and there will be North Atlantic blocking. However we need it to stay, whether it lasts 1-2 weeks or 4+ weeks in my opinion will tell us whether this will be a meh winter or an epic one.

I love Miller Bs I hope we get a bunch of them

Wow I hope that’s right, the models change so much especially long term that it doesn’t make sense to panic this early about a ratter. I know I did with my panic room post, but I realize that was an overreaction to a bad model run. It’s something to watch, but I do think I jumped the gun saying shit like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. The polar vortex is quite powerful right now, but even if it doesn’t weaken a ton we have other influences like the MJO and La Niña structure working in our favor long term.

I could be off base here but is it possible that due to the climate change induced increase in ocean temps that it is allowing storms to deepen more, leading to more really big storms? Long term I would think the negative influence of rising temps would eventually outweighs the positive influence of stronger storms and more precip (due to warming ocean temps), but for now it seems like the gains we have made in big storms have outweighed the losses in more marginal events.

The only good year was 17-18 in the past 5 years. Last year was ok, I had 2 12+ inch storms so it wasn’t by any means a bad winter, but we haven’t had a major slow moving blizzard that buries the region with 2 feet of snow since March 2018. Even if it’s not a great winter, if we get a massive blizzard like March 13th 2018, Jan 26th 2015, Feb 8 2013 ect, even if the rest of the winter is meh I’ll take it (I believe 2005-2006 one of Rays analogs was like that). Normally I’d rather just have the frequent 6-12s but it’s been a while since the last 2 footer so I’m hoping we see one this year.

It’s too early to give up on winter. We are getting the shitty pattern out of the way early, I’d rather that than something like 2019-2020 with a big storm early December then just turns to garbage. The polar vortex is going to stop deepening and start weakening soon.

When I see that map I think of one thing, golf. That’s straight up golf weather, may as well take advantage of this warm spell before we the pattern changes and we get hammered in January.

Yeah, I’ve busted a lot with my forecasts, I It happens to even the best of em. Don’t tell me you haven’t ever busted, we all do.

Not bad I’ll take it this early in the winter

I think people are making the mistake of thinking we need December to be great because it’s La Niña so the second half of winter is guaranteed to suck. I made that mistake in my winter forecast with February. December I did expect to finish milder than average but one big storm at the end of the month, still has time for that to happen. Maybe December and early January are worse than my winter forecast had, but mid Jan and Feb are much better. That’s what the implication would be if there is a polar vortex disruption a month or month and a half later than I expected in my winter forecast. I believe that’s what Ray had in his, a polar vortex event later in the winter but remaining strong early on.

Extremely low, but it shows just how quickly we can make up for a slow start. 2012-2013 was mild until early Feb. A 2014-2015 is extremely unlikely but a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 is just as unlikely. December usually sucks until late month anyways, so we are burning shit climo with this hostile pattern. January February and March could still be epic.

The current pattern is absolute garbage but we can still get a really good winter. 2014-2015 sucked until late Jan when all hell broke loose and we started getting blizzard after blizzard.

Even if December is cooked there’s still 3 more months

It looks bad but aren’t there good signs with the MJO?

The CFS looks really good for Jan and Feb. not a ton of North Atlantic blocking but there is ridging out west, and it looks like the polar vortex while it doesn’t split or anything its on our side of the globe, and is displaced a bit to the south. I’m glad to see there are signs of the long range looking better after the upcoming mild spell.

There’s a reason why I never use the gfs for my forecasts. The Euro/Navy/Canadian blend never really was on board for this one. Gfs was on its own, so I’m not surprised it was wrong. Right now the pattern sucks, hopefully things change with the MJO going into phase 7 and 8.

Yeah the gfs is a garbage model, I never bought that this was a legitimate threat with the lack of blocking. We need blocking to slow the flow down.

The flow is too fast, we need blocking to slow it down. Just not going to get a strong storm in this pattern, the gfs foot+ of snow solution was always a low probability.