George001

Go ahead and keep looking at the GFS, it’s full of shit. There can and will be a monster blizzard somewhere in New England with a low that powerful. Liking big blizzards doesn’t make me a goddamn infant, idk what to tell you. Also remember last December? The same storm that was modeled to cut into Wisconsin ended up at roughly this lead time ended up giving Boston a foot?

I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there.

Beer?

It doesn’t look great right now but we don’t know that yet, it may not rain on Monday in eastern mass.

We need a 100 mile shift se, is that really impossible? The storm is still 5 days out.

Ok that euro run is disgusting, we need massive large scale changes to the setup. Models are struggling with the pattern due to the massive ocean storm.

Maybe it can turn into a Miller B if it keeps slowing down?

Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?

I hope the entire setup shifts away from this Miller A bullshit. We need a Miller B, I hate seeing that on the Canadian guidance. Blend of the Euro Canadian and Navy still looks good though.

the GFS sucks, just 2 and a half days ago it barely even had a low, now it has a blizzard for Montreal.

Yeah if the navy is more NW than other models that can’t be ignored, it isn’t a useless model. I’d argue it’s alot more useful than the gfs because it has a clear and consistent bias that can be controlled for by the forecaster, where as the gfs is erratic. That’s why when I saw the Navy hugging the coast I started to get really nervous.

Ok if we look at the guidance all we need is a 50 mile shift se on the euro ensemble mean, that’s really not that much.

That’s a good sign considering how far west the Canadian and European guidance were and although it’s a very underrated model it does have a SE bias. Great start to the 12z guidance!

It sucks, I’m losing hope for an all snow event here. Still worth tracking though, even if it turns to rain eventually it’s possible we get a good amount of snow first like March 2017.

For the nor’easter last December the models had the low cutting to Wisconsin at one point with a massive rainstorm in the east. I ended up with around 15 inches in that one with areas NW getting even more (Binghamton NY got 40+ I believe).

This Friday storm might be closer for us east guys than the Monday one. Definitely something to watch.

The trends overnight were not good, and it is very possible this low does run inland. But even if it does, we could still see a few inches of snow before a changeover to rain in eastern areas. I’m not going to give up yet though, it’s not an ideal track but at least we have a low.

We need the high pressure to stay rather than move east, I hope that changes.

Didn’t see the precip maps but if it goes from NYC to right over eastern mass that’s a step in the right direction. Still would be rain for my area, but even like 20 miles NW of my area would probably stay snow the whole storm and get a blizzard, rather than being confined to far inland. So far mixed signals, Canadian trended in the wrong direction Euro in the right direction. Models are still struggling with the pattern, hopefully the low doesn’t go inland at all.

The low is a bit se of Nantucket that would be snow all the way to the cape with the airmass in place imo.

Theres so much cold air in place and a massive high to the north, not buying that it just moves outta there like that. GFS sucks, I’m all in with the NAVY.

Yes I would, I never use the GFS. Euro Canadian and Navy are the 3 models I look at mid range. Now my concern is the Euro and Canadian are inland, but the ensembles are farther SE while the navy has a blizzard. There is a lot of cold air in place so as long as the low doesn’t go west of us we should be fine.

Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible.

Lol the low is going into Ontario. Maybe we can get it to trend so far west that it gets forced under by the trailing wave and turns into a Miller B instead on the Euro and Canadian guidance?

Yes I’m a big fan of the navy. Euro, Canadian, Navy are my favorite long range models. I wish the Navy had ensembles like the Euro and Canadian though.