George001
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Everything posted by George001
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967mb low over the cape
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Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.
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Not in New England. I am of the opinion that we are getting slammed in the first half of March.
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Yes, there will be an Archambault event in the Feb 26th-Mar 10th timeframe. The pattern grows much more amplified on the models, and this time there isn’t any blocking which is a good thing. Blocking sucks! I’m sick of the south getting all the snow.
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I’m not sure when it will happen, but I do believe we will get an Archambault event before the end of winter. Like Anthony said, something big is going to happen.
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Farther north yeah but not for my area. There are exceptions but usually we are done by late March.
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Why are so many of you throwing in the towel? March is a winter month, we also have the rest of Feb. it sucks that the 20th threat went to shit but that isn’t the end.
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Even the mid Atlantic might be in trouble with this one. It doesn’t even look like a strong storm anymore, no phasing at all, weak and strung out.
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Yes they did, tossing the gfs/gefs was a mistake. Did way better with this than the Euro and Canadian. AI models did well too. I know I said yesterday we still have a shot but unfortunately things have only gotten worse on the models since then. This threat is cooked
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I don’t think those 2 foot runs are coming back, but a significant storm is still on the table. If we zoom out and look at where we are right now, most guidance is about 100 miles SE of where we want it at 4 days out. That’s….. not that bad. The issue is those earlier runs got everyone’s hopes up, and it can be tough to let that go. If the models were 200 miles offshore and bumped north over the past 24 hours, despite being in the same spot the mood would be a lot different.
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Agreed. It hasn’t been very snowy, but it has been cold and snow retention has been good. It actually feels like winter this year. I’d rather have 80% of normal snow, BN temps and consistent snow cover than 110% of normal snow, well AN temps and any snow that falls melts in a few days. Certainly no 14-15 or 10-11, but it’s not a rat in my eyes.
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You gotta be fucking kidding me
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It’s not terrible, but it does have a NW bias. The key takeaway for me is there is a lot of room for error in regards to storm track. I think I would do really well even with the low going over the canal. The key is getting the storm close enough.
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Wow, that is true arctic air. What I’m curious about is if a similar longwave pattern to the early Jan threat would work better now. Maybe shorter wavelengths will help?
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Gives me a foot of snow despite the low plowing into central mass. Definitely would take the under with that track
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Snow east of the low? LOL
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Mostly ice
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im tossing the gfs/gefs
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March 13th 2018? This could be similar if everything goes right. Of course that’s a big if, but the potential is there.
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That’s the fun of tracking in New England, we all root for different things depending on where we live. I want a Juno redux, you want a hugger track so I rain while you get buried, and Torch Tiger wants a 950mb low plowing into Montreal so we all get flooding rains.
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Nothing wrong with that, I’d settle for 8-12 for you and 18-24 for me.
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The one thing I am seeing is the northern energy is shifting west, even on bad runs where it misses the phase. I like seeing that
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This storm means business…. we’re seeing around 1.5 in QPF for many areas on guidance. I’m excited, think we have a decent chance at a net gain.
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Most of us like snow but it’s not a requirement, for example Torch Tiger roots for rain.
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That said…. Im not losing my sleep and staying up for the 6z runs unless i see cross guidance agreement on a blizzard. This hobby is fun but im not fucking up my sleep schedule tracking something that most likely is a ghost.
