George001

I’m skeptical that we don’t get a major La Niña snap back after a Godzilla El Niño. There is a good chance this El Niño becomes the strongest event since the industrial era.

This is good advice. I started doing DBT as a patient fairly recently and it helps a lot. Having poor emotional regulation really sucks, it got me banned from countless online forums (multiple weather forums, sports forums, reddit, etc). Once I stopped blaming everyone else and realized the common denominator was me it clicked. I got help, since doing that I’ve started letting things go more. It’s still a work in progress but I haven’t challenged anyone to a duel in a while so that’s good.

That’s certainly possible. Imo the issue my area (near Boston) has in super ninos isn’t just the temps, it’s temps + storm track (miller A setups which are more common in super Ninos are very prone to screwing us). In Michigan you have more buffer room with the temps than we do, and if we do get some MC forcing it could lead to more of an inside runner track which is good to you guys out west.

Agree, it’s absolutely worth being open minded about this. I noticed a typical El Niño summer is cooler here, it has been a very hot summer more typical of a La Niña. My shitbox has no AC so this is something that is very noticeable for me. Like you said there is no disagreement about this early developing El Niño turning into one of the strongest super ninos on record, but even super ninos can have MC forcing. We saw it in the 2015-2016 super Nino when the super Nino + west pac warm pool MC forcing combined to produce one of the warmest Decembers ever in the east. 2015-2016 was a well coupled super Nino by every metric, and it had residual MC forcing in December. I’m not sure why there is so much resistance to idea. Both things can be true. It’s a powerful El Niño pattern that is driving the quiet Atlantic hurricane season + busy pacific hurricane season (classic strong El Niño signature), but there are other factors at play too that are interacting with the developing El Niño. There’s a reason we aren’t seeing the typical El Niño temp profile in the east this summer.

The issue I’m having here is Im not seeing how they would have fixed the whole mean smoothing extreme anomalies thing (something that is inherently higher risk in an extreme tail ENSO event) since 2023. Maybe im wrong and am underestimating the upgrades, but im at a point where i need to see it to believe it. On the other hand, elevated risk does not equal guaranteed, there is a world where Bluewave is right from a probability standpoint but the winter ends up only being slightly AN like the European guidance mean has right now because that extremely warm month that often happens in super ninos just doesn’t happen this year. You are correct that we don’t have statistical proof of the current versions biases in ninos yet. Thats a valid point, so the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess. I still think it’s worth trying.

Imo this reads more as an experienced long range guy using pattern recognition to detect model biases than a warm bias. Euro has the classic super Nino warm north + big GOA low + cooler south + wet with raging STJ signal. It makes sense that the mean may be smoothing things too much in an extreme tail event like this, hence the warmer risks Bluewave is raising concerns about. If there is MC forcing as well we could see a very warm month (like December in 2015) that pulls the anomalies from slightly AN to extremely AN. I like the cold and snow as much as anyone, but Bluewave brings up a good point here and it’s worth taking seriously.

ONI of 1.0 is noteworthy this early. It’s on par with 15-16 and ahead of 97-98, 82-83 and 72-73. Even the RONI of 0.5 is impressive at this stage, most El Niños don’t develop until much later.

Depends on where you live. For my area weak El Niño is the sweet spot, and really weak ENSO is best (the top 2 ENSO states are weak El Niño and weak La Niña). ENSO has a pretty weak correlation though here. The only time I really lower expectations for winter due to ENSO here is if it’s a super Nino. I’ve been saying for a while I would rather roll the dice with a strong La Niña than a super Nino here. I would bet on the 27-28 winter producing more snow here than the 26-27 winter. All we really know for 27-28 is it won’t be a super Nino, since 26-27 will be and we don’t see multi year super ninos. I do think there is an elevated chance for a strong La Niña in 27-28 like @PhiEaglesfan712 is saying, but it’s not a guarantee.

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

It’s early but it’s fair to say as of right now things don’t look good given what is going on with the El Niño.

Thats certainly possible they would have been better for your area now. Thats a fair point about the increased moisture nowadays. Glad to hear you are enjoying your summer. There are lots of fun things to do in the summer like fishing, hiking etc.

I don’t even disagree with Adam about this upcoming winter in particular (the raging super El Niño forecast is backed up by current obs + guidance, it’s already approaching borderline strong territory in June). No issue with 97-98 as an analog either, but calling you a wishcaster for claiming 09-10 is an analog when that winter wasn’t even good for you is…. out there. I don’t see why having years like 09-10 and 57-58 as ENSO analogs is so crazy, it’s the weenie implication that those analogs = an eastern burial that is an unsupported leap. Those were strong El Niños (57-58 a high end strong event), wet, and neither were frigid years like 14-15 (Adam is right to push back on the people calling that season an analog). Hell, it could be argued 57-58 wouldn’t even be that good of a winter today if we ran back that same pattern and adjusted for CC. Sure, this El Niño is stronger and more east based than 09-10, but it’s not crazy to include it as an analog. Including it as an analog does NOT mean “the mid Atlantic is getting buried again”, that required an insane sequence of luck that likely won’t be repeated in any of our lifetimes much like 14-15 in Boston. 09-10 wasn’t that cold either, it was near normal temps. I don’t think that’s a wishcast analog. 09-10 without the severe -NAO (my understanding is we are in the opposite solar phase to that year) may not even be that good of a winter. I don’t know…. If you dig into these analogs more closely there are ways to debunk the weenie narratives without name calling. On the other hand, 97-98 is an excellent analog, that was an eastern based super Nino which is a strong match to how this event is developing. However, as several people pointed out that doesn’t necessarily mean snowless. A 97-98 type pattern with a bit less warmth (would need some of the non ENSO factors to break right for this) could absolutely lead to a normal snow winter. The seasonal models are likely too cold, but the coastal track and wet eastern winter pattern is in line with ENSO. The big question is how much of that precip will be snow vs rain. I’m personally on the warm and BN snow side of the argument, but for fucks sake it’s at least worth hearing people with differing opinions out. Adams ENSO posts have been solid, but ya know it’s uh possible to just ignore weenies if you don’t like them and enjoy the summer if you like warmer weather. A lot of people like it warm and aren’t huge fans of the cold and snow, and those people mostly are spending time outside and couldn’t care less about what people post online about the weather.

DC-NYC yeah but Boston is a bit different in that average snowfall is in the low 40s, so our area really needs either 1 big one + several smaller events or 2 big ones. In super ninos we don’t usually see those smaller ones, and the bigger ones tend to be more Miller A due to the strong southern jet which often run inland a bit and rain in Boston or go out to sea. Thats why these super ninos tend to be not great for us. Not only do we not get those minor events that add up in super ninos, the storm track when the big one does hit if it does often screws us. It’s basically the opposite of the southern mid Atlantic, they tend to get fucked over by Miller Bs and clean up in miller As, coastal SNE cleans up in miller Bs and often gets fucked over in miller As. This is a big reason why I’m not too thrilled about the upcoming super Nino for my area, but we will see how things play out. Metfan was saying in the other thread some of the long range seasonal guidance was showing a coastal track, I’d like to see that on guidance come November.

Yeah, definitely an early developing El Niño. Early developing events tend to peak stronger, and it looks like the consensus supports a super peak (which does not surprise me given what the subsurface looked like a couple of months ago). The question now is how will the super Nino affect the weather pattern? I’m thinking since it’s such an early developing event we will likely see the subtropical jet activate in the summer, and have a weaker Atlantic hurricane season than typical. For winter, it’s very early but these super ninos tend to follow a certain pattern (warm and wet in the east) so I would think that’s a good starting point. A bit off topic but I did notice a thing over the years where weenie sentiment tends to be too pessimistic during la Nina’s and too optimistic during El Niños. Has anyone else noticed this?

It’s looking more like an early developing east based event.