George001

I’m not optimistic about this winter however I do think the follow up La Niña could be a big year for northern areas. It is likely a big La Niña event is coming after this super nino.

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events.

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño.

Even in bad winters occasionally you can line something up in New England. But you are barking up the wrong tree here, I’m not optimistic at all about this upcoming winter and am fully expecting a ratter. Now the next concern…. Even if there is a biggie there is no guarantee that it comes up the coast. Often in super ninos the storm track is too far south.

The hand we are dealt makes me want to projectile vomit, but it is what it is. Just gotta hope for one biggie this year, and then a big winter during the follow up La Niña.

I would bet on the following winter being way better. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña, even a strong one than this super Nino bullshit. I like it when Canada is frigid.

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

A rouge blizzard is certainly possible, but things don’t look good for northern areas. I agree that 27-28 will offer better chances for sustained winter weather. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña than a super Nino. Although weak La Niña is preferred, even in some stronger La Niña years my area has gotten hit hard at times. I dont think there has been even one super El Niño year with AN snowfall locally, and all of them are AN to well AN temps. Even the “better” super Nino analogs like 15-16, 82-83 etc were warm with below average snowfall (82-83 was closer to average, but still a bit below and was warm, so still a bad winter by my standards).

On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s a very Snowman19/Adam thing to do. On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s something Snowman19/Adam would do. Does Forky know his shit about CC and meteorology? Yeah he does, but he has a lot of growing up to do.

I agree with them that recent winters have been mostly underwhelming, but disagree with the downplaying of last winter. Climate change is real, it’s happening, and I tend to align with the people who are arguing that it’s playing a significant role in the past decade being mostly underwhelming. That being said, I was very happy with last winter. I’m also very skeptical of the idea that last winter was supposed to be historic like 95-96 or 14-15 or 10-11 and CC robbed us. The reason last winter was not quite as good as those winters is it was too dry for record breaking snows, I’d be more inclined to blame CC if it was too warm with multiple benchmark storms being say 35-36 and rain. The long term trend with CC is warm and wet, and last winter was drier than average. I do think there were several winters this past decade where I suspect CC boned my area some, but do not think last winter is a good example of that. If anything, a redux of last winter in say the 1970s climate may have been worse because it may have just been colder and drier rather than snowier. The longwave pattern simply was less favorable than those record breaking winters for east coast cyclogenesis. I’m just glad things came together well enough to give me the best winter since 14-15 in my area.

Lots of snowfall where?

What I realized is Adam is a bright young man, but he is severely mentally ill. When I realized that and got a handle of my own mental illness, I stopped hating him. I strongly believe Adams DMN (default mode network) is overactive, which is linked to increased rumination, self monitoring and various psychiatric conditions. Thats not good. I have a similar issue myself so I’m not judging him for this. I genuinely hope he gets better. He needs radical cutting edge experimental treatments to rewire his brain and dampen general DMN activity. I suspect he also struggles with lowered connectivity between distant brain areas within the DMN, and struggles to shut it off when switching from rest to active and demanding tasks. This specific configuration of DMN dysregulation in Adam’s brain leads to undesirable psychiatric symptoms like difficulty with perspective taking and inconsistent self reflection, intrusive self monitoring, poor working memory (since so much of his cognitive bandwidth is consumed by his obsessions), cognitive looping (restricted/repetitive posts about “snow weenies” on his X page), difficulty redirecting attention, and a tendency to drift inward. Psychiatric interventions for this suboptimal DMN configuration include psychedelic assisted therapy with ayahuasca or psilocybin, meditation, TMS, ketamine assisted therapy, or mindfulness based neurofeedback. Adam’s posts will not be missed by me either, but I hope he says fuck it and pursues radical treatment options to fundamentally rewire his brain rather than just learning to cope with symptoms. Traditional psychiatry likely will not work in this case, this presentation is consistent with more treatment resistant psychiatric conditions. A couple of the interventions for this are illegal, but if traditional psychiatry fails, stepping outside the law and taking matters into your own hands is justified. I’m not just saying this, I am pursuing several of the above interventions to fix my own brain, as my own DMN is overactive which has caused several undesirable psychiatric symptoms that did not respond to traditional meds and talk therapy. I hope Adam realizes the gravity of his situation like I did with mine, and takes the same steps.

I could see something like that happening. Super Nino patterns tend to be warm and wet with an active storm track. It looks like he is expecting a classing appalachian runner storm track that leads to big snows for the mountains and interior regions, while the coastal areas/1-95 corridor is on the wrong side of the storm track and gets rain instead. The interior regions, elevations and northern areas have a bit more room for error with the warm anomalies than the I-95 does in terms of the precip staying frozen.

Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it.

Yeah what makes it interesting is the magnitude of this event, we have had super ninos before but previous ones have peaked around +2.5C, some of the latest guidance has this one in the +3.5C to even +4C range, which is significantly stronger than even previous super ninos. We have been tracking the more aggressive end of guidance too, on the dallies Ninos 3.4 is already at around +2.5C, Nino 3 +3C, and Nino 1.2 +4C.