George001

I don’t have anything against him personally but I do think Forky needs a break. I don’t entirely disagree with his views on this upcoming winter, but his thinking has gotten way too inflexible. Cognitive rigidity impedes creativity and it narrows your world.

Forky, it’s time to take a break. I am saying this as someone who agrees with you about our winter prospects, I’m expecting mostly a non-winter locally. If other people have different viewpoints, they are entitled to that and we need to be respectful of that.

I agree that the models are probably too cool. In terms of winter prospects, what are your early thoughts? I agree with you that it will be warm, but some of the guidance is indicating that the AN precip anomalies will get pretty far north. So I am thinking it will be more of an interior winter.

I think it makes sense for Boston, super ninos tend to both torch and favor a “miller A” track, which often is unfavorable for the Boston area. I do think this will be an interior winter, since they have more room for error in terms of temps, +++AN temps and +++AN precip could easily mean cold rain in Boston while the mountain areas get pounded with heavy wet snow. All depends on what the storm track is…

Yeah we are going to lose December. The question is what happens after that.

I’m not optimistic about this winter however I do think the follow up La Niña could be a big year for northern areas. It is likely a big La Niña event is coming after this super nino.

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events.

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño.

Even in bad winters occasionally you can line something up in New England. But you are barking up the wrong tree here, I’m not optimistic at all about this upcoming winter and am fully expecting a ratter. Now the next concern…. Even if there is a biggie there is no guarantee that it comes up the coast. Often in super ninos the storm track is too far south.

The hand we are dealt makes me want to projectile vomit, but it is what it is. Just gotta hope for one biggie this year, and then a big winter during the follow up La Niña.

I would bet on the following winter being way better. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña, even a strong one than this super Nino bullshit. I like it when Canada is frigid.

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

A rouge blizzard is certainly possible, but things don’t look good for northern areas. I agree that 27-28 will offer better chances for sustained winter weather. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña than a super Nino. Although weak La Niña is preferred, even in some stronger La Niña years my area has gotten hit hard at times. I dont think there has been even one super El Niño year with AN snowfall locally, and all of them are AN to well AN temps. Even the “better” super Nino analogs like 15-16, 82-83 etc were warm with below average snowfall (82-83 was closer to average, but still a bit below and was warm, so still a bad winter by my standards).

On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s a very Snowman19/Adam thing to do. On the one hand, the correlation between the keeling curve and global temps is strong and well documented, so I do think as a society we should be trying to lower carbon emissions. On the other hand…. This is a healthy attitude to have, take care of the environment, do our part and reject any anxiety, emotional pain or any other useless bullshit. It is very possible to acknowledge climate change is real, advocate for change, do what we can in our personal lives, and still choose to enjoy life and maintain a positive attitude rather than dwelling on the negative. I agree with you that the name calling was immature, unnecessary, and doesn’t accomplish anything. That’s something Snowman19/Adam would do. Does Forky know his shit about CC and meteorology? Yeah he does, but he has a lot of growing up to do.

I agree with them that recent winters have been mostly underwhelming, but disagree with the downplaying of last winter. Climate change is real, it’s happening, and I tend to align with the people who are arguing that it’s playing a significant role in the past decade being mostly underwhelming. That being said, I was very happy with last winter. I’m also very skeptical of the idea that last winter was supposed to be historic like 95-96 or 14-15 or 10-11 and CC robbed us. The reason last winter was not quite as good as those winters is it was too dry for record breaking snows, I’d be more inclined to blame CC if it was too warm with multiple benchmark storms being say 35-36 and rain. The long term trend with CC is warm and wet, and last winter was drier than average. I do think there were several winters this past decade where I suspect CC boned my area some, but do not think last winter is a good example of that. If anything, a redux of last winter in say the 1970s climate may have been worse because it may have just been colder and drier rather than snowier. The longwave pattern simply was less favorable than those record breaking winters for east coast cyclogenesis. I’m just glad things came together well enough to give me the best winter since 14-15 in my area.