George001

How come? I know you don’t like the 13-14 analog, so I’ll bring up a different year that is a better PDO match. Jan 2022 was strongly +PNA with a -2.7 PDO

This is the most excited I have been about an upcoming winter since probably 21-22. East based La Niña AND that warm pool off the WC and in the GOA??? I like the look of that.

I am starting to think this has the potential to be a big winter in the east, especially New England. I like what I am seeing with the warm pool that has developed just off the pacific NW, that is something that was present in our big +PNA/-EPO winters. There are also signs that the La Niña is going to be east based, which is another point in our favor.

Looks like a gradient pattern.

Cold ENSO 3.4 and warm ENSO 1+2 is still a La Niña, just a different kind of La Niña (modoki La Niña). At times it didn’t behave like a La Niña, but that is more because it was so weak than what ENSO 1+2 was doing. In Feb though the storm track was consistent with a modoki event. In modoki events storms tend to take more of a northern track, which is why they are unfavorable for big snows outside of NNE. There was a lot of low level cold though, so it got icy.

We have seen significant cooling in the ENSO 3.4 region in the past month, it is already down to -0.8 on the daily, and -0.4 on the weeklies. When taking into account the current guidance and historical precedence (the last 3 strong El Niños were immediately followed by multi year La Niñas), it is the logical conclusion to make. So I would disagree that people are jumping the gun about the ENSO state for this winter. The big question is will the La Niña be east based, basin wide, or a modoki event. Right now guidance is favoring an east based event.

In theory the atmosphere should be even more nina like than last year. La Niña development started taking off around a month ago, and will likely be stronger than it was last year in late fall. Whether it lasts long enough to register as an official La Niña by ONI is uncertain, but it doesn’t really matter. At this point, the logical assumption is to expect weak la Niña conditions this winter.

That is certainly a possibility, but things do look a bit better than they did last time going in, at least for now. For what it’s worth ENSO will be working in our favor for the first time since 21-22. The past 3 winters were 2 modoki la Nina’s and an east based strong Nino. Like 21-22, it looks like we are headed for an east based La Niña, a weaker version of the 21-22 event looks like a solid ENSO analog.

That is unfortunate, people who intentionally spread blatant misinformation like this should have their accounts flagged for intentional misinformation, people like this are a major contributor to the downfall of society. It has gotten a lot worse since the pandemic as people spend more time online and less time in the real world.

We are near the solar maximum, so the exact opposite. I am almost inclined to think this was a brain fart and he meant maximum. I understand the reasons why people spread disinformation, but this is something you can disprove with a quick google search. Usually when people spread bullshit they are a bit smarter about it. I know many of us are extremely anti Bastardi (for good reasons), but even he would never do something like this. The disinformation he spreads takes a bit more than a quick google search to disprove. It’s absolutely still bullshit, but he’s smart enough about it that people buy in and listen to him. I would imagine the guy claiming we are at a solar minimum would have a bunch of tweets correcting him, no?

Agreed, I would bet on a moderate to strong -PDO winter, similar to last year. The question is what does this actually mean? Cold ENSO -PDO combo is a mixed bag, it’s the warm ENSO/-PDO combo that is a death sentence for east coast snow prospects. Jan 22 had a -2.4 PDO….. and so did December 11. Some winters are clear cut going in like 23-24 and 14-15, I don’t think this going to be one of those. Speaking of 14-15, things look WAY different than they did in the summer of 14. Good call on the skepticism of the 13-14 analog last year, it was a cold winter but was also dry. I remember you brought up the fall conditions being completely different than fall of 13 as a counterargument when I and some others argued that 13-14 was a great analog. It had value, but it definitely wasn’t as good of an analog as I thought. For this year given the information we currently have I’m looking at last year, 11-12, 21-22, 08-09, 13-14, 01-02, 12-13 as early analogs. What are your early thoughts for analogs?

Hopefully we can get this low strength and track in Feb

After reading Rays latest blog post I am feeling a lot better about winter prospects for my area. To an extent we have more room for error when it comes to non benchmark storm tracks. Last Feb is a good example of this, the storms were messy and took more of a northern track. It got really icy, but it ended up being a good winter month here regardless. Farther north it was an epic month because they stayed all snow unlike near Boston.

What are your early thoughts for analogs? I haven’t been following things too closely the past couple of months, but reading the past few pages and latest guidance it looks like things have trended more in favor of a La Niña rather than cold neutral. You think ENSO will be weaker or stronger than last year?

As someone who agrees with a lot of the points you are making, dude you need to cut this shit out. I’m all for calling idiots idiots, but look at Yanksfans post history, he is not some dumbass climate change denier. Seems to me like he was just busting your balls, that kind of response to a joke is uncalled for.