George001

I disagree with his methodology. Even if he is right, it won’t be because of a 2nd la nada winter in a row. Basing a winter forecast strictly off ENSO is already dubious to begin with, when ENSO is that weak it is a better idea to rely on other things. Also, like Chuck said the sample size is way too small. Personally, I haven’t even began to narrow down my analog years yet. I just think it is way too early.

Agreed, I hope Snowman19 is right. I’ll gladly roll the dice with ENSO neutral.

Unfortunately too late as winter ended 3 weeks ago, but this is good news for next year if it continues.

Yeah we needed this setup a month ago

Looks like a classic elevation storm. Some guidance is more aggressive (RGEM/CMC) for eastern areas but I am very skeptical of that outcome in mid April with marginal temps. I would like to be wrong but at this time of year I have an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude about modeled snow.

What ENSO state would you favor right now? I think another La Niña is very possible. Probably wouldn’t be very strong though

Looks like a classic early spring elevation event.

967mb low over the cape

Hopefully it stays weak if a Nino does develop.

Not in New England. I am of the opinion that we are getting slammed in the first half of March.

Yes, there will be an Archambault event in the Feb 26th-Mar 10th timeframe. The pattern grows much more amplified on the models, and this time there isn’t any blocking which is a good thing. Blocking sucks! I’m sick of the south getting all the snow.

I’m not sure when it will happen, but I do believe we will get an Archambault event before the end of winter. Like Anthony said, something big is going to happen.

Farther north yeah but not for my area. There are exceptions but usually we are done by late March.

Why are so many of you throwing in the towel? March is a winter month, we also have the rest of Feb. it sucks that the 20th threat went to shit but that isn’t the end.

Even the mid Atlantic might be in trouble with this one. It doesn’t even look like a strong storm anymore, no phasing at all, weak and strung out.