George001

I liked what I saw from the 0z globals tonight. Models are still too far east but I like the overall setup for my area.

I’d like to see globals show something similar to this NAM run tonight. Even a bit worse would be fine.

I’m in on this threat. Don’t care for the NAM too much this far out, but the other guidance was close enough that it’s worth watching for a plowable snow in my area with another bump north. These 0z runs are going to be big, can’t have any steps back.

Models took a big jog north with the low offshore

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. But you can’t write off a moderate event, just can’t do it. Even if things don’t look great 2 days out, remember the first storm in Jan 2022? Guidance was fairly weak with that even the night before the storm.

Yep. The thing about the Navy is it has a known SE/progressive bias. So when it’s the most amped that’s a huge red flag. I still want to see more improvements from other guidance before I jump the gun, but it is way too early to write this off. I like the large scale players, the western ridge axis is centered over Montana which is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis. There is a high to the north in the 1030s, that’s a strong high. We are still 5 days out, that’s a long time in weather. Don’t expect a truly high end outcome, but it wouldn’t take massive changes in guidance to get moderate snows for my area.

Yeah we aren’t getting 2 feet from this but it’s way too early to give up on a decent storm. We have gotten moderate events from worse setups. This isn’t far away from being something decent for us.

It’s a similar setup to Jan 2022. Ensembles have a signal, too far out for OPs so I don’t really care that they aren’t showing a storm.

miller B on the gfs for the 2nd low

PDO has risen from below 3 in October to -1.63 now. No, it’s not going to turn positive this winter. But if this warming trend in the PDO region continues it may only be weakly negative by Feb.

From @SnowLover22 on the Mid Atlantic forum: “PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity. If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.” …. That’s a significant rise from Oct-Dec. It’s still negative enough it won’t save Dec and probably Jan too, but this could be a big deal come Feb-Mar if it keeps rising.

I’m not even sure it matters too much whether or not an official Nina develops. We could easily see a Nina CONUS wide temp profile even with a -0.3 or 0.4 ONI for Jan-Mar. The question is where will the gradient set up?

Seasonal guidance is still transitioning to more of a Nina temp distribution Jan-Mar with a cold north/warm south look. I’m not entirely sure it plays out like that, but it’s really not a bad look for the east. I really wouldn’t hate to see a weak Nina develop. It’s a good thing ENSO is weak because there coldest anomalies are over regions 3.4 and 4, not 3 and 1.2. If we did get a mod-strong Nina we would likely have been looking at a 11-12 or 22-23 redux.

The interesting thing is this really isn’t a La Niña pattern with the Aleutian troughing, that’s a Nino pattern if anything. I do think we could see some additional Nina features show up deeper in the winter (I expect this) but even if a Nina does develop it will be weak so not a major pattern driver like it was in 07-08, 10-11, 20-21 etc.

I know it hasn’t snowed yet for the coast, but I’m feeling pretty good about how things are going for this winter. It hasn’t been an endless torch like last December, we had a cold first week, we are currently in a relaxation period and it is expected to cool off again late month with some signs that we will be entering a stormy gradient pattern. The storm track has been too far NW for my area, with storms taking the hugger/inside runner track rather than off the coast. It has been cold, warm up rain, cold warm up rain rather than just warm like last year. Although frustrating at times, the storm track hasn’t been AS far NW as say 22-23. Often the storm track shifts south in Jan-Feb. A gradient pattern with normal temps and well AN precip can be a very snowy one for Massachusetts. I know there is a lot of doom and gloom on other boards and subforums, but I’m not seeing it for New England.