George001

You should apologize to the Pope.

People shouldn’t have a problem with reality.

I’m not going to lie, I’m kind of annoyed that we are in early January and tracking a pattern change, not individual threats. That said, despite getting some bad luck in December, your ideas about how things would evolve in early winter have been dead on so far. I like your evidence based style, you listen to arguments for both cold and warm despite having a cold/snowy bias on a personal level (most of us do). You hold yourself accountable and learn from your mistakes and it shows in your work. I hope you are right about how the rest of winter plays out.

Agreed, it was a good post. A lot of people here owe the pope an apology. He doesn’t sugarcoat things, but whether people like him or not, he knows what he is talking about. I disagreed with him (likely wishcasting on my end, I wanted my seasonal forecast to be right) and called for a wall to wall cold and snowy Jan. I am waiving the white flag on that idea. This doesn’t mean I’m punting the month, but there is large scale cross guidance agreement that my ideas about the progression of Jan will be incorrect.

I’m keeping expectations low, but definitely going to keep an eye on this one the next couple of days.

I disagree with this, its more of a motivation than a capacity thing.

You are objectively correct, eastern mass squandered a very cold December in terms of snowfall. It is also really not that big of a deal, it’s just snow. I wanted more snow but it is what it is, on to January.

I know a lot of people here don’t like him, but the Pope knows his shit. Yes, his meteorology background is unconventional, but that doesn’t make the knowledge he has any less real. He may end up being wrong, but as someone who was (and still is) pounding the table for a big January, the concerns he brought up in regards to the thermals are real and valid issues. If the +EPO strengthens/pac trends worse, he absolutely could be right. Disagreeing is fine, but its important to take a scientific approach, not an emotional one. This also means using guidance as tools rather than looking for a quick dopamine hit (I’m guilty of this myself, but am actively working on changing my mindset).

I’m feeling pretty good about this. I would favor the lower end for Boston and the higher end for NYC because of how December played out, but I don’t see any reason to deviate from the general idea of a great winter but not historic (eg 95-96, 14-15, 10-11) in terms of snow totals. Cold air has not been an issue, and there are signs the pattern could turn more stormy in early Jan with hints that the STJ will become more active.

Yeah this month underperformed. The late north trends for this past storm were nice, but I only got 3 or so inches and it’s probably going to be gone unless Monday trends a lot colder. Oh well, the January pattern looks promising for a minor threat (4-8 ish if everything breaks right) around new years and a bigger storm on the 6th.

You are getting over a foot. Congrats

That radar screams overperformer

could what’s going on to our south (mix line more north) be a good sign for us?

I’m not super invested in the result (given it will probably melt soon and it’s not going to be a lot of snow here), but I have been horribly wrong about how I thought this storm would play out (I thought the modeled NW-SE track was bullshit, and it’s clearly not). So I am invested in this from the perspective of someone looking to use this as a learning experience. We haven’t had a lot of blocking in recent years so I am out of practice, but this reminds me a bit of the late March 2018 setup where LI got buried and the dry air won out farther NE. I’ll take a stab at it. I’m leaning towards the cold dry air winning out for my area, thinking more 2-3 than 4-6 here. Farther west is a different story, this one looks good for you guys. The radar does look more juiced than guidance, which could potentially lead to the storm overperforming for areas where the dry air doesn’t win out.

Definitely walking a tightrope here to get a sustained winter period heading into the new years. We need not only for things to break right with this storm, but also need enough of a secondary to pop for the next storm to limit snow melt. Not impossible, but I’m keeping expectations low for now.