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Dick_LeBoof

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Everything posted by Dick_LeBoof

  1. Dick_LeBoof
    "WhY wOuLd ThE mOdEls Do ThIs To Me?!"
  2. Dick_LeBoof
    Radar is filling in that dry band now. I think the next 1.5 hours is our window.
  3. Dick_LeBoof
    Found a nifty visual showing the recent runs off the GFS/NAM/HRRR. 3 runs going back to the 06z.
  4. Dick_LeBoof
    That's fair. The models have consolidated now, but it's within 12 hr of the first flakes falling. I guess I'm surprised with how much the globals swayed leading up.
  5. Dick_LeBoof
    Does anybody know the last time we had such disagreement in models this close to the event? It's been a wild ride the past 24 hours to say the least.
  6. Dick_LeBoof
    Interesting! Seems like this mostly has characteristics of a Miller-A?
  7. Dick_LeBoof
    Seems like the Euro is keeping QPFs way down? Can someone explain what drives moisture forecast for this setup? Is it how close the coastal low gets? Or related to energy from the gulf?
  8. Dick_LeBoof
    Regardless of how this storm shakes out this has been such a blast tracking. We've had it all. Models shifting south, models shifting back north, DT drama, local TV mets scrambling to adjust totals, heartbreak, and watching a meltdown in everyone's favorite mid-atlantic forum. 10/10 week.
  9. Dick_LeBoof
    I don't think I've seen the RVA news meteorologists change predictions this often! And each station has a pretty different call.
  10. Dick_LeBoof
    SREF Plumes looking healthy for KRIC.
  11. Dick_LeBoof
    The HRRR is looking so good. Quality meaty bands coming through.
  12. Dick_LeBoof
    Reading into their verbiage on the Winter Storm Watch they just issued feels very bullish for the Richmond metro!
  13. Dick_LeBoof
    Well this stinks. Going to hold my breath and watch the meso-scale models from here on out. I still feel like we have a chance with the shortwave pulling enough moisture into the forecast area and the precipitation shield spreading north as it usually does. The cold will be there. Just need to the low to move north.
  14. Dick_LeBoof
    NAM looks good. Here is a meteogram showing the most recent NAM and GFS runs at KRIC. GEFS Plumes are middle of the road for this. Plenty of members showing both the north and south hits.
  15. Dick_LeBoof
    Here are the GEFS plumes for Richmond. This is 10:1 Snowfall. Pretty big spread in solutions for the 06 GEFS Run. 4in seems to be a comfortable place to land with this system. As is tradition, we pray for a good banding setup in addition to this rain/snow line.
  16. Dick_LeBoof
  17. Dick_LeBoof
    18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. You love to see it.
  18. Dick_LeBoof
    I think the most recent NWS briefing summarizes the event really well.
  19. Dick_LeBoof
    That's what I'm seeing as well. Here is some data using the latest GEFS ensembles, and a meteogram with the outputs of the deterministic models plotted together.
  20. Dick_LeBoof
    12Z GFS has trended warmer than the previous 3 runs, but the moisture is certainly in the right place. I assume this would be a textbook Miller A evolution? Latest EPS ensembles have the coastal low much further off the coast than the American solution. Will be interesting to see if the models begin to converge at all. Given the arctic blast, I would be surprised to see us not have enough cold air for this event.
  21. Dick_LeBoof
    Here are the latest totals for the wrap-around deformation band from the HRRR model. Richmond metro looking at 2ish.
  22. Dick_LeBoof
    Wow the precip has really filled in on radar! Much earlier than expected. Appears that the cold air has intruded further south than the modeling anticipated as well!
  23. Dick_LeBoof
    Some good looking banding beginning to form now on the radar! Hopefully the column stays cold.
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