Dick_LeBoof

"WhY wOuLd ThE mOdEls Do ThIs To Me?!"

Radar is filling in that dry band now. I think the next 1.5 hours is our window.

Found a nifty visual showing the recent runs off the GFS/NAM/HRRR. 3 runs going back to the 06z.

That's fair. The models have consolidated now, but it's within 12 hr of the first flakes falling. I guess I'm surprised with how much the globals swayed leading up.

Does anybody know the last time we had such disagreement in models this close to the event? It's been a wild ride the past 24 hours to say the least.

Interesting! Seems like this mostly has characteristics of a Miller-A?

Seems like the Euro is keeping QPFs way down? Can someone explain what drives moisture forecast for this setup? Is it how close the coastal low gets? Or related to energy from the gulf?

Regardless of how this storm shakes out this has been such a blast tracking. We've had it all. Models shifting south, models shifting back north, DT drama, local TV mets scrambling to adjust totals, heartbreak, and watching a meltdown in everyone's favorite mid-atlantic forum. 10/10 week.

I don't think I've seen the RVA news meteorologists change predictions this often! And each station has a pretty different call.

SREF Plumes looking healthy for KRIC.

The HRRR is looking so good. Quality meaty bands coming through.

Reading into their verbiage on the Winter Storm Watch they just issued feels very bullish for the Richmond metro!

Well this stinks. Going to hold my breath and watch the meso-scale models from here on out. I still feel like we have a chance with the shortwave pulling enough moisture into the forecast area and the precipitation shield spreading north as it usually does. The cold will be there. Just need to the low to move north.

NAM looks good. Here is a meteogram showing the most recent NAM and GFS runs at KRIC. GEFS Plumes are middle of the road for this. Plenty of members showing both the north and south hits.

Here are the GEFS plumes for Richmond. This is 10:1 Snowfall. Pretty big spread in solutions for the 06 GEFS Run. 4in seems to be a comfortable place to land with this system. As is tradition, we pray for a good banding setup in addition to this rain/snow line.