Dick_LeBoof

I think the most recent NWS briefing summarizes the event really well.

That's what I'm seeing as well. Here is some data using the latest GEFS ensembles, and a meteogram with the outputs of the deterministic models plotted together.

12Z GFS has trended warmer than the previous 3 runs, but the moisture is certainly in the right place. I assume this would be a textbook Miller A evolution? Latest EPS ensembles have the coastal low much further off the coast than the American solution. Will be interesting to see if the models begin to converge at all. Given the arctic blast, I would be surprised to see us not have enough cold air for this event.

Here are the latest totals for the wrap-around deformation band from the HRRR model. Richmond metro looking at 2ish.

Wow the precip has really filled in on radar! Much earlier than expected. Appears that the cold air has intruded further south than the modeling anticipated as well!

Some good looking banding beginning to form now on the radar! Hopefully the column stays cold.