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Mount Joy Snowman

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Everything posted by Mount Joy Snowman

  1. Mount Joy Snowman
    Sleet line definitely encroaching much more at the height of the storm than at 6z, up to Lanc/Dauphin border by ~3pm. Edit: Although much like 6z, it starts to get beat back right after that, a true battle zone.
  2. Mount Joy Snowman
    So true, always a great tactic. Takes some grunt work but worth the effort. HRRR through 24 looks the same to me, outside of maybe being sped up an hour or two.
  3. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 5. It's wild with these temps that (1) we have a major snowstorm even happening at all and (2) some of us have to worry about mixing. Hi-res models seem to be all over the place with the extent of the sleet. Today's 12z runs crucial, starting with the HRRR which is firing as we speak. Let's do this.
  4. Mount Joy Snowman
    Primary is just too amped. Nam would be a downer for sure, given expectations, but it definitely does some wonky things from frame to frame. I dont know, but if it scores a victory here......damn.
  5. Mount Joy Snowman
    By 1pm sleet overtakes much of our forum, even ahead of 18z pace, with 6-9" having fallen.
  6. Mount Joy Snowman
    No real changes thru 24 to these eyes.
  7. Mount Joy Snowman
    Warning: The NAM is running. Hide the women and children.
  8. Mount Joy Snowman
    We've been ninja'ing each other all day (that's the term isn't it?) haha. Good stuff Chris.
  9. Mount Joy Snowman
    Sleet battle in York/Lanc all through the mid afternoon hours, then somewhat retreats from 5-7pm. Snow continues as run ends at 7pm Sun with ~9-11" across the LSV. A tightrope across southeastern counties.
  10. Mount Joy Snowman
    HRRR at 1pm Sun has primary a bit stronger with sleet line a smidge north of 18z, hitting PA/MD line, snow at 7-9" at that point. Let's see how she finishes.
  11. Mount Joy Snowman
    HRRR thru 36 has thermals a wee bit warmer and sleet line a skosh north of 18z.
  12. Mount Joy Snowman
    Just for sh$ts and giggles, here is what the GFS threw out for next sunday into monday, just a whole hog coastal bomb. KMJS for the win haha.....
  13. Mount Joy Snowman
    You and everyone else haha. Your post with the skew-t was spot on, how so many people just look at the 850 and 700 panels and assume they're good when it's always that layer in between that gets us. So aggravating for us southeasterners, always fighting it.
  14. Mount Joy Snowman
    GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north. It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us. Need the big thump before any worries arrive.
  15. Mount Joy Snowman
    18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals.
  16. Mount Joy Snowman
    We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north. Bizarre.
  17. Mount Joy Snowman
    You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope.
  18. Mount Joy Snowman
  19. Mount Joy Snowman
    Latest RRFS also throws the sleet well up into PA unlike its 12z run and reduces totals accordingly. Not buying any of this yet but man.
  20. Mount Joy Snowman
    It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha. If not.....whew boy.
  21. Mount Joy Snowman
    By 7pm NAM has sleet line up into Northumberland County, extreme southern tier is taint from 1pm on. Holding the line for itself ha. I'll give it until 0z to course correct.
  22. Mount Joy Snowman
    MU is in….
  23. Mount Joy Snowman
    18z NAM looks a touch colder through 30. Keep it coming.
  24. Mount Joy Snowman
    18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday, with roughly 7-9" on the ground.
  25. Mount Joy Snowman
    I believe the one and only model we haven't mentioned is the good 'ol RAP haha. Here is the 15z at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday with the cold seemingly winning out and 6-8" already on the ground.
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