Mount Joy Snowman

It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha. If not.....whew boy.

By 7pm NAM has sleet line up into Northumberland County, extreme southern tier is taint from 1pm on. Holding the line for itself ha. I'll give it until 0z to course correct.

MU is in….

18z NAM looks a touch colder through 30. Keep it coming.

18z HRRR at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday, with roughly 7-9" on the ground.

I believe the one and only model we haven't mentioned is the good 'ol RAP haha. Here is the 15z at the end of its run at 1pm on Sunday with the cold seemingly winning out and 6-8" already on the ground.

Almost forgot: RRFS - Sleet barely enters Y/L late afternoon but is beaten back, 12-15" totals. Tonight and tomorrow's runs will be very telling with regard to any warm air intrusion between 850 and 700mb, but I am liking the general trends and leaning towards the colder solutions winning out.

For those southern tier folks who are interested, I compiled a sleet summary of the 12z short-range models: NAM - Sleet encroaching by early afternoon and fully through southern tier counties by 7pm but gets beaten back a bit, a true battle zone. 6-15" range of totals across Lanc. NAM 3K - Ends run at 7pm Sun but has sleet well into York/Lanc the entire afternoon. The worst depiction of the lot for us. RDPS - Sleet starts entering Y/L by 1pm and completely overtakes by 7pm but still throws down Kuch of 9-13". FV3 - Run ends at 7pm with sleet line still south of PA border and already 12-15" on the ground. ARW - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA. NSL - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through northern VA. HRRR - Run ends at 7am Sun but looked mostly good, with sleet line running through central VA. Anxiously awaiting 18z run.

Euro pushes sleet line well up into York/Lanc by 7pm but only after most the precip has fallen. 10:1 below....

Haha no worries. I’ve just been running kids around all morning while trying to look at models and post during breaks. Just forgot to respond. No reason, I just love elevation and figured you had a bit on your side out that way, as I know it climbs pretty decent over there behind CXY. Makes a difference around here. I’m one of those guys who can just stare at topographic maps and be completely entertained for hours ha.

I don't believe the RRFS was posted. Keeps the sleet line right along the southern Lancaster tier during the height of the storm but never quite infiltrates, would be perfect verbatim.

FV3 still snowing heavily and has sleet line south of PA at 7pm.

ICON holds steady.

Snow totals for our region are worlds better on NAM when compared to 6z. 3K not quite as friendly with the sleet reductions but getting there. On to the next one.

Primary doesn't reach the latitude that it did on 6z. Still taints but not as aggressively. Baby steps for the NAM, good to see.

Low of 26. Just got done perusing the 0z/6z model suite and overall pretty solid. I will say, in the aggregate, the mean sleet line seems to reach almost directly over my area by late Sunday afternoon, with the NAM obviously being the most aggressive. Luckily most of the qpf will have occurred by then and the loss shouldn't be too great. We'll have to see if the NAM scores another coup or course corrects to something in between itself and the GFS. I will be keeping a close eye on the Meso's as they come into range today. 12z HRRR just wrapped up and looks good at the end of the run but hard to make much of it at this point. Next 24 hours critical for the MD line folks with regard to sleet impact. Either way, a major storm the likes of which we haven't seen in years is on the way, with deep cold to follow, and perhaps other opportunities thereafter. We've been cold since November so who knows maybe this will be the winter that won't quit. Buckle up friends.

I had noticed this a few times this week, just how well LNS was doing in the low department. Snow cover baby. Love it.

What’s your elevation over there?

KMDT = 15.5” Book it.

Especially me. I think me and @Superstorm may be the most southeasterners on the board??

NAM still bringing the mix after about 8-10" for most of us and bullseyes the I-80 corridor. We'll see if it leads the way or adjusts back in the next 24 hours.

Good to see so many reputable sources so bullish with their opening predictions. I was shocked to see CTP's initial map. Just wow. I love where we sit and see no way we can't win big with what we have diving into this airmass. With that said, there's one small thing I can't totally discount, and that is how many times over the years I've seen occasions where the globals, even in their wheelhouse range, aren't able to pick up on the extent of the intrusion of sneaky warm layers aloft. Then we get inside of like 36-48 hours and the NAM, HRRR, and the gang start to show sleet in places you'd never expect it. Next thing you know, during the height of the storm we're "tainting" as @pasnownut would say, and what was thought to be an epic storm turns into just a nice storm. I just can't shake that thought given some of the globals are already showing it nearby, which is crazy to have to worry about when we're talking about temps in the teens for most of the duration of the event. I know we're still looking at a beautiful front-end thump but I'll be keeping a close eye on the Mesos as they come into range. Let's keep that primary Low at bay, shall we. Despite all that, let's pile it up boys! Next stop, 18z NAM. Onward.

Yeah, this is something I've noticed many times over the years, where a skew-t gives a clear no-doubt-about-it all snow signal the whole way through the column and yet the output will say mix. I have no idea what's going on in the algorithm that causes that to occur. Anyone?

Ukie QPF which stays all snow north of the MD line.....

18z NAM at 84.....