Mount Joy Snowman

Not a poster but here ya go pal…..looks to be getting wicked….

Good for you, that’s awesome. I remember you talking about High Dive, looks like a cool place.

You still working at Cork and Fork? There’s no need for a card

Is this your way of getting through the wind? Judge free zone my friend

Wild weather indeed. We’re getting a bit of everything and more yet to come. The uncertainty breeds excitement. Gusts are ramping up here quickly. And oh yeah, tomorrow’s a holiday (I know not for some) so MJS is making orange crushes for he and the Mrs. Whoopsy.

Oh don’t I know it friend! I distinctly remember a number of events where the NAM led the way and we all pooh pooh’d it. Now, for every one of those there’s ten others where it’s off its rocker haha. But I’m not giving up either. There’s always a chance when 3+ days remain, no matter how small.

Can the HH NAM lead us to victory for once?? Doubtful haha. Line just hit here, some T&L not far away, winds increasing.

I was actually just about to post how there isn’t any temp spike happening today and things are actually going in reverse. Some serious WAA fog on the advance, getting thick over here. Once that mixes out I assume we’ll spike a bit but nothing like what was projected.

Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons. Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms. Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby.

Just had to come on here and say my wife and I watched episode 3 of the final season of Succession last night and wow! Without giving anything away, that was some of the best television I have ever seen. Powerful stuff. The way in which they shot it and the dramatics and all of it…..just perfect. The show is so well done. @canderson I believe it was you who told me we were in for a treat when I mentioned a while back that we had started the series, and man it has not disappointed. Just great writing and screenplay and acting, all of it. Thoroughly impressed.

Low of 33 and currently 35. 24-Hr QPF was .6”. Pleasantly surprised to still have a yard full of snow. Temp rise here has been much slower than forecasted. Now we prepare for some vicious winds ugh. Stinks to see the trends for the midweek storm. This one really stings given what all the models were showing just a couple of days ago, granted they were still a week out so big changes were expected. Not throwing in the towel yet, at all, but at the very least the big dog scenario seems to be mostly off the table. We’ll see what the next 24 hours bring but the trend most of the season has been for things to get shunted south and east. Fingers crossed for at least a light to moderate type overrunning event. Happy Sunday, all.

THIS. People forget how rare this stuff is supposed to be. So many ways to fail, always and forever.

Only a sith deals in absolutes

I went up above 34 for a bit and assumed it would only go up from there. Interesting.

I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32.

Glad to hear. It was dicey there for a while.

As for all the Bastardi debate, which I feel like we get into a couple times a year haha, I think the guy is mostly fine if not a little cringy. Yes he gets a little gung ho and yes he has some know biases but he’s not wrong THAT much more than anyone else in this crazy field. I mean heck, just today I had loads of people texting me how crappy their local forecasters are and how they only heard we were supposed to get at most a coating. I explained most reputable sources had 1-2” but all it takes is one bad forecast. Then you hear the “if only I could be wrong as often at my job” and yada yada. Point being, it’s a brutal field where even the best get it horribly wrong at times. JB may not be one of the best anymore for day to day forecasting but he absolutely has an unprecedented knowledge of historical storms and an uncanny ability for pattern recognition. I’ve seen him in conferences before and his recall ability is second to none. Accept him for what he is and throw him onto the pile of people all trying to figure this stuff out. It’s just one more source to consider. I personally don’t use him much anymore but I’m fine with others posting his thoughts. The more the merrier. I’ve said too much. Carry on.

I just changed to sleet as well. 1.8” final tally. Temp at 33. Fun while it lasted. At least we got to see some heavy rates and big flakes, always a win!

Just got home. Roads are garbage. Heavy snow at the moment and pushing 1.5”. Temp stuck at 32.

I have the tots at swim lessons while watching the steady snow fall out the windows. Beautiful scene. Would love to squeeze out 2” before the changeover.

Usually means the changeover is coming. I’m down to 32 with moderate snow and a tenth of an inch on the ground.

What time is your event? This seems to be trending towards an overperformer.

Very light has commenced here in west central Lancaster County. Let’s have some fun before the rain comes.

I know. I told my wife to make sure all her decorations are secure on the front porch. This could be real deal.

Low of 27. Currently sitting at 30/21 as the atmosphere moistens overhead. Excited to see who can catch a quick thump today. As for next week, my goodness just give me the Euro/CMC combo and let’s call it a day. Yahtzee!