Mount Joy Snowman

Looks like a decent chance of some storm activity this afternoon before a cooler drier air mass ushers in and clears things out, including hopefully smoke ha, and then high pressure takes control for a couple days. Should be a nice end to the week.

I always find it interesting when the national high and low temp for the Lower 48 occur within a relatively short distance of one another, as happened yesterday with the high of 119 at Death Valley, CA and the low of 35 at Bodie State Park, CA being separated by only ~160 miles or so. While this doesn't happen all too often, I have witnessed it from time to time and it always seems to be these two locations. The two sites couldn't be more different and extreme in terms of topography haha, with one being well below sea level and the other being a high-elevation valley above 8,000', but still quite the feat.

CTP reading American Weather again I see

All quiet in the Atlantic Tropics. Since no one was asking about it, I figured I better bring it up.....

I wasn't home all day Saturday so not really sure how things broke out but it did seem the line of storms later in the evening was weakening a bit as it moved east so not shocking those to my west got a bit more. Glad to hear you did well, as it looks like we may go a while without anything significant. #DogDays

You guys added ten pages to this thread since Friday, wowsers! Enjoyed a nice weekend of swimming, landscaping, and imbibing. Got .75" from the storms on saturday but despite being warned never witnessed anything you'd call severe. Looks like the forecast is hot and dry with a side of smoke. You can really see the thicker smoke sitting over Canada on the visible imagery, which I guess is supposed to work its way down into our area more as the day goes on. As someone else mentioned, I'm a little surprised there is no mention of this from CTP in the AFD. Overall, nothing too exciting on the horizon weather-wise.

Been noticing that, great trends.

My buddies and I take a road trip to a PSU game at a different location every year. Last year was the first time we couldn't go, as Covid robbed us of our planned Virginia Tech trip. Man, was really looking forward to Blacksburg ugh. Anyway, our first trip ever was to Madison to face Wisconsin in 2008. We hammered them 48-7 and D-Will had a punt return for a TD in that game. We were actually in the student section for that one, crazy I know haha. Luckily we were in one of the top rows though so very few students behind us to razz us, plus we beat them so badly I think they lost interest. To this day we say that is our best trip ever. We were still young, the women were kind, the weather was perfection, the team was great, the town was great, just great, everything great. We definitely plan on getting back to Madison one day, but only after we cross every other B10 school off the list. Next year we are going to Auburn, REALLY looking forward to that one, first game at an SEC stadium. Also, we are 10-2 lifetime on our road trips, and that's not including the 2006 Orange Bowl we attended against Florida State and won in triple OT, the infamous JoePa-Bowden bowl. We definitely seem to be brining the boys some good luck. So many stories......

Oh man, a lot of good sports talk around these parts today. We just had to go there with the 6-4 Iowa Penn State game didn't we?? I was in attendance for that work of art, let us never forget the excellence that was on display that day. If I recall correctly, Iowa intentionally took a safety late in the game because they were so confident PSU's offense would do nothing with the ball, and they were right. Don't get me started on the new 17 game NFL schedule eeeeerrrrrrr. Looks like Richard Sherman has gotten himself into quite the quagmire. As for Haskins, given that the incident took place in a Vegas hotel room I'm going with some sort of alleged cheating incident, and yes I have zero evidence to back that up ha. Seriously though, I give him a bit of credit for the restraint he showed in not retaliating, as it seems she put quite the bruisin on him. As others have stated, I am not high on the Steelers this year. However, as a Packers fan I'm still unsure if our quarterback will be on the field this year or hosting Jeopardy haha. Lastly, couldn't agree more about the new Yankee Stadium, empty and hollow, nothing like the raucousness of the old stadium. I will now retreat back into my cave. Toodles.

Had a couple brief showers roll through while swimming at my parent’s place out near Red Lion, York County. Sure enough, not a drop here back home all day, bone dry.

Completely agree and I actually prefer it, so long as it doesn't drone on endlessly.......weather can be boring at times ha, not often but sometimes.....

That was very cool. I have a buddy who lives in Red Land, says the baseball team is quite the rage up there.

Total of .04" yesterday from my one very brief mini afternoon pop-up. As expected, looks like the Williamsport area was the focus of the best action. As some others have stated, pretty wild seeing the lightning light up the sky from 60-80 miles away last night. Never ceases to amaze me how far lightning can reflect through the clouds in the night sky, "heat lightning" as some like to call it, which of course we weather nerds know is not a real thing. Looks like another shot for some severe today, albeit perhaps not quite as widespread.

haha I know it caught me off guard as well, seemed to dissipate as quickly as it formed.......Farmdale jackpot!

Oh yeah I gotchya.....sometimes I'm zoomed it too far to get the big picture as well, first day stuff haha..... Tell me about it brotha, I have a dew of 80 to go along with a temp of 90 for a heat index of 108! Think my dew may have spiked a touch from a mini pop-up cell that rolled over me earlier and dropped a few hundredths of an inch, just gnarly outside.....

Ha I do the same thing all the time, see the heights and no precip and wonder why temps don't align and then it hits me, aaaaahhhhhh surface winds, and sure enough...... Models have been keying on that, similar to last night, don't let your guard down when the sun goes down, particularly those up around the Lycoming Valley......

Yes, I believe the study concluded that as well, minor but provable downstream effects. Your intuition is on point yinzer. You aren't kidding, hard to find a lot of support for the LSV for today. It may by a @mahantango#1 special, or even more likely according to some of the Mesos is a Williamsport jackpot.

As the hot'n'muggies roll on, Mount Joy Snowman (yes I reserve the right to occasionally refer to myself in third person) has some random tidbits. For one, all is right with the world when the national high/low temps are dominated by Death Valley and Peter Sinks, as has been the case for much of the last couple weeks. By the way, 127 in Death Valley yesterday, yahtzee! Moving on to more local goodies....... LNS got 2" yesterday, nice. However, the big winner was Philly's Northeast Airport (KPNE), which recorded the top hourly rainfall total in its history (records back to 1948) yesterday, with 2.42" falling between the hours of 5 and 6pm, culminating with a daily total of 4.16". Another fun fact, which I am full of today, is that Selinsgrove was the only ASOS station to not record any rainfall yesterday. Poe Valley State Park got hit with a potent little microburst on Sunday, which you may read about here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=CTP Here are my thoughts for today's severe potential. Note, these are totally NOT the thoughts of CTP as taken from their forecast discussion page.....carry on chaps..... Heating of moist, unstable air mass should lead to scattered convection by early this afternoon, focused primarily along the elevated heat source along the spine of the Appalachians. However, increasing large scale forcing ahead of a shortwave approaching from the Ohio Valley should lead to increasing coverage late in the day and into the evening hours. Latest HREF supports the highest POPs in vicinity of a weak warm front over the Middle Susq Valley, where pwats around 2 inches are progged. The high-pwat air, combined with moderate to high instability, should result in locally heavy downpours and the potential of localized flooding. The wettest members of the 00Z HREF indicate the potential of 2-3 inches in a few spots of the central mountains and Middle Susq Valley. Increasing winds aloft ahead of approaching shortwave will lead to respectable deep layer shear late in the day and evening, supporting a few supercells and even the chance of a tornado, where low level shear is enhanced near warm front over the Susq Valley. The highest HREF UH and greatest mesocyclone potential lie across the Middle Susq Valley.

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated. The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant. So your instincts were correct! This does not include yesterday but seems they are doing well....

Man was that lightning something, just nonstop and we had one strike right overhead that shook the house. The baby and the dog didn't care for that one haha. Well you doubled me up yet again, and by the way, for that same period since last Thursday and living just six miles to your east, I've received a grand total of 1.67", wow. #SummertimeConvection

Aaaahhhh okay now that I view it on google's street view I do recall that place. Where we turn off for my buddy's cabin is a couple miles past there in Watrous, head down Elk Run Road through the Marshlands and deep into the hinterlands from there.

Thank you Blizz haha. Sleep was decent but rain was only meh. I only caught the edge of that MCS and added around another quarter inch to my total from yesterday, bringing me to .55" for the day. I bet The Maytown Man did much better, as the heart of the complex seemed to pass more over him, and well, he just always does better than me ha. What did you end up with up there?

Yeah if I didn’t know any better I’d say that’s an MCS rolling through the area. Non stop lightning making it hard to sleep here during the witching hour. Should have some nice totals in the gauge come morning.

Yeah they definitely did better up there and towards Manheim. Of course the real show was down by Quarryville.

Not me, I’m right there with ya at around a quarter inch.