Mount Joy Snowman

Yep we called it. What looked to be a day with a lot of severe potential really turned into a dud around here, although we had a feeling that could be the case relatively early this morning. I’ll check the gauge in the morning but can’t imagine I got more than a few hundredths. Looks like the extreme eastern and western parts of the state got in on some wild action though. Just an odd weather day all the way around.

Yeah we certainly could get split here by the main tranches of rain, and to be honest, that's what much of the guidance had been hinting at the last 12 hours or so. Just not my summer, guess that's what I deserve for choosing a handle name of Snowman *shrug*

Yeah this doesn't scream much severe potential to me, but I've been wrong before....

Yes you really can, it's subtle but it's there. Also a thicker band moving in from the west though. You can also clearly see the multiple layers of clouds moving in all directions, evidence of the directional shear that's in place.

Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so. This has almost all the ingredients you look for. With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up.

Sure is but if you put it in motion it's actually thickening not thinning. Tough to say how we'll look in a few hours.

As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising......

Could be an action packed day for some. Others have pointed out SPC's stance. CTP has some interesting thoughts as well....... The conditional risk of severe storms ramps up this afternoon and evening (2-8PM most likely timing) with SPC upgrading the south- central and southeast zones to an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5). The upper pattern will be characterized by a broad trough/cyclonic flow aloft with embedded MCV translating east- southeastward from the southern Great Lakes through the northern Mid Atlantic region. 29/00Z HREF mean shows 40-50kt deep-layer shear profiles in place later this afternoon with 0-3km SRH values 200-400+ m2s2. The main uncertainty driving the conditional nature of this potentially significant severe wx event continues to center around the degree of destablization, as cloud cover from upstream convective complex may limit heating/instability to some extent. The latest HRRR and other CAMs show pcpn from this feature reaching into the western zones between 15-17Z. Assuming sufficient CAPE can be realized in the warm sector, the environment will be supportive of some supercells that may evolve into bowing structures as storms track northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. While the primary threat appears to be damaging winds and possibly some hail, low level hodographs are supportive of an isolated tornado risk especially in the vicinity of sfc warm front over south- central PA. This risk is highlighted by a 5% tornado probability. MaxT will be a few to several degrees lower vs. yesterday in the low 70s north to lower 80s south. The relatively cooler temps combined with advection of rich low level moisture (near-70F dewpoint air) suggests lower LCL heights which are an important delineator for tornadoes in central PA. Despite PW values around 1-1.5 inches supporting brief heavy downpours/rain rates, recent dryness in the past 7 days along with fairly progressive storm motions should confine flooding risk to marginal (level 1 out of 4) with the highest probs/lowest FFG in the NC/NE mtns. The severe threat should end by 8PM give or take, but showers could linger in spots for most of the night. MinT will trend a few degrees warmer overall with the largest positive 24hr deltas over the middle and upper Susquehanna Valley. Post-frontal NW flow should align low clouds upslope along the western Alleghenies into early Friday morning.

This is true, very very true. I have seen many a good man go down from getting too bold with the douple IPAs on a hot and humid day.

You're hearing that cell over by Red Lion.

I believe it's the same alcohol content as Miller and Coors and it's cheaper. Heck, for kegs it's WAY cheaper, and let's be honest, it basically tastes the same as Silver Bullet. Keith Stone! Remember those commercials? The international symbol for light beer should just be a man pissing, tell me I'm wrong.....

Okay boys, I'm ready for what's about to come my way......here we go -- Key Light all the way! bahahahaha......Seriously though if I'm outside at a party, pool, tailgate, boat, etc. it's light beer all the way for me -- Miller, Coors, or Key. Now, I do enjoy a good lager or pale ale from time to time but nothing overly hoppy or fruity or hazy or dark or anything for that matter, just a good crisp plain beer. With all that said, I'm more of a whiskey guy. Whiskey'n'ginger has been my drink of choice for at least 15 years now, and I do love me a good 'ol fashioned or Manhattan. In fact , all this talk and pap may just have to go get the Bullet Rye tehe.

You and your wind, love it haha.

Goofus back to living up to its moniker. Well I'll be a monkey's uncle, just checked the station and it appears I hit 89 earlier today, likely not gonna reach 90 but 'twas a close call after all, aint it @Itstrainingtime

Well what do you know, looks like Harrisburg/West Shore about to get smoked by a nice little cell yet again. Shocking, I know.

Yeah I’m only at 84 as well despite full sun all day, although there are plenty of cotton balls starting to form in the sky now. I’m thinking it’s that slight northerly breeze component that is keeping things in check.

Yes thanks that could be helpful. Not trying to find out who got the post taken down or anything like that. Not interested in any type of petty fight. But it would be helpful to understand the reasoning for the removal so I know what to expect going forward. I am a big fan of consistency ha. You make a good point, although I would add that meteorologists build loads of uncertainty into their forecast. Now, I'll grant you that most people don't know how to interpret that uncertainty haha, and when you actually break it down on that level meteorologists do quite well. One of the points I was making yesterday is that it would behoove the CDC and health professionals to show a bit more humility and admit when they simply don't know something. Again, no one minds a "we don't know" comment so long as it's honest. Just don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining. The word "science" also gets thrown around entirely too much in regards to all things Covid. Science is the acceleration of gravity being 9.8 meters per second squared. Repeatable observable experimentation. Fact. So much of the policy surrounding covid is flying blind or trying to make bold predictions based on limited knowledge. It seems like anyone can just shout "follow the science" as cover to do whatever they please, and as someone who graduated from a college of science, I just don't buy it. But I do hear you Tim, nothing easy about any of this.

Man, it's always easy to forget just how different conditions can be in locations not separated by much distance. I'm only like 60 miles northeast of you and last summer I had 3.6" in June, 4.07" in July, and 8.34" in August. This summer has not been nearly as kind to me. I had forgotten just how rough you guys had it out that way. Hopefully you don't see anything near that bad again.

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it?? Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it? I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it. I mean, it even got a like from @paweather haha. Again, I agree it was too long but didn't think that was grounds for removal. I always try and come from a place of reason and data, with a little opinion sprinkled in ha. Heck, I recall when the first major worldwide data dump on covid came way back when from the Italian Ministry of Health and I was all over it haha. You know, the one that first showed us that the average age of death from covid was roughly equivalent to the overall age of death in the population at-large and that covid victims had an average of ~2.5 comorbidities. Data that was only reaffirmed over time by other countries. Also a bit disappointing that I can never view that post anywhere again, even privately, because I did put a good bit of effort into it. I digress but I just abhor censorship of any type, particularly for reasonable arguments that were only made after numerous others had broached the topic. Anyway, looks like I bottomed out at 64 again last night. Severe potential seems to be increasing for tomorrow, will have to look into that a little deeper. Might even have a stray storm around today, will someone get lucky? Stay tuned!

Question here: was my Covid post removed? If so, why? I only chimed in after about 20+ other comments were made expressing varying degrees of opinion. If it's because it was too long that's totally fine because I agree haha, got a bit carried away. Is there a character limit? Who is the board moderator and is there any way to view the post even if it's not in the public part of the forum, like say my profile? Kind of weird that it could just unilaterally be wiped from the universe. Just trying to get a gauge for how the board works. Thanks in advance.

I'm at 91 as well, which is my high for the day.

I think it's just a matter of very small variations near an initialization period being able to cause much larger impacts down the line, particularly the farther out you go i.e. the Butterfly Effect.

I am one of those people, rarely pay any mind to the off-hour runs. I don't believe they have as much initialization data ingested into them, eh? Also, just gets to be too much at times, hard enough tracking all the 0/12z stuff ha.

Ugh I know, I completely agree and am rarely one to tout anything beyond like 5-7 days out. In fact, I basically pay no mind to the spin-the-wheel potion of the model runs but alas we all have moments of weakness haha. Sure enough, 12z GFS changes things yet again. I will give myself ten lashings for jumping the gun on this one.

Wow the Icon makes an appearance! I must be dreaming. Looking forward to some of those cool temps it's displaying. But I do agree with @pasnownut in that there has been some consistency in showing the ridge building over us by the first full weekend in August.