Mount Joy Snowman

Daddy likes. Let's do the damn thang.

3.2" off of .25 liquid.

I am in for 3.2" at MDT. This is why I love BWI, have made it in 1:10 before. Anything beats flying out of Philly ha.

Yep depends where the best overrunning breaks out from the WAA, which often times leads to some odd configurations, at least initially.

Very solid GFS run. Say it with me, consensus.

Another reasonable depiction from the RGEM. Again, we are honing in on consensus.

Hey @Voyager I see Tamaqua beat Jim Thorpe in wrestling last night 45-27, bet you're riding high! And yes I completely understand that the odds of you caring about this post or even having any idea what I'm talking about are slim

Agreed, noise. My 2-4" outlook still stands and we're still looking at a cold column with solid ratios. One of the lesser variable events around these parts if we're being honest. Like you said, snow is coming. I will always sign up for that.

Agreed. One consistent theme that's starting to develop for the Lancaster area is that we may be waiting a while to see our snow down here. Left watching as the WAA moisture flies just to our north and west for hours on end, before finally getting into the goods around the midnight hour, at which point we should see a couple hours of heavy snow. Every storm throws a few surprises. At this point the only guarantee I see is West Virginia getting pounded ha.

HRW.....nice....

12z HRRR throws out a different look, pushing main moisture for our area to the north. Probably not to be trusted, although it certainly wouldn't be the first time we've seen a last second change where things jump north. NAM starting now.

And perhaps most importantly, no temp issues throughout the column. No panicking about sneaky warm layers aloft and multiple hours of sleet or changeovers to rain. Just good old fashioned snow. Dendrites baby.

I think most see 12-14:1 ratios with this event. Looking forward to the nice CAD sunday morning and then some more sustained cold. Winter is finally here.

Yes, the one and only thing.

Williamsport for the win! Thanks, and agreed.

Euro stays in line with the "couple to perhaps a few" inch theme for our area. Actually is slightly better than previous runs. I think we know what we're in for at this point folks. Nothing wrong with a widespread couple inches to whiten things up.

Hmmmmm wonder why it would be struggling to convert the precip to snow, since there aren't any temp issues throughout the column?? Is it just me or has the Ukie been struggling more than what it used to in the past? Always thought it was a pretty good model, at least for SLP locations and path and whatnot, perhaps not as much on the precip side?

The Ukie, for whatever it's worth, remains wildly unimpressed.

I could see this as a likely solution, with the exception of coverage being a bit overdone. West Virginia and northern MA coastal areas likely to do the best. Just a nice little winter storm, nothing too intense but makes for a pretty scene. The column has great temps throughout and looks decently saturated. I think we see solid ratios out of this and would not be at all surprised for must of the LSV to see a few inches, with a couple lollipops in the standard high hill locations and places like South Mountain. Another thing that keeps showing up on the short term models is the sped-up timing of this thing, with snow likely moving in tomorrow evening and being out of here long before most of us awaken on Friday. Should be a fun little event, just manage expectations accordingly.

CTP map seems to line up well with Mount Holly and Sterling.....

I dropped to 23 last night. Still liking an area-wide 2-4" for this event with a couple lollipops. CTP map and HWO.... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Light snow accumulation may result in hazardous travel conditions Thursday evening into Friday morning. An icy mix may result in hazardous travel conditions on Sunday.

Yep, happy Perihelion! We are only about 3% closer to the sun today than during Aphelion.

A decent CAD signature consistently showing up for Sunday morning as well, should lead to some icing possibilities.

Euro is kind of meh. Taking the entire suite of guidance into consideration, I'm kind of leaning towards a scenario similar to yesterday with the heaviest totals just to our south, albeit not quite as extreme on the high end. The one crucial difference for us this time is that the column looks fairly saturated, so I don't think we'll have any of the dry air issues that plagued us last time. So in that sense, I do think most of the forum will see at least a couple inches. I'd call that a win, to say nothing of some northward nudging that could yet take place.

The PA border was a literal wall to the snow yesterday.