Mount Joy Snowman

MU final call….

Haha this is likely true. I should also clarify I'm talking KLNS. Obviously there could well be significant differences between, say, south of Quarryville and up north of you towards the Lebanon line.

For my big winner, I'm sticking with my call from a few days ago -- Mt. Mitchell, NC. As for IMBY, I'll put the Over/Under for snowfall in Lancaster at 1.5". Sadly.

An underwater eruption no less. Tsunami warnings from CTP?? Low of 11 here. I’m ready to throw my hands up with this storm. We’ll get what we get but down here in the SE LSV the writing is on the wall for minimal accumulation before a very quick changeover. At least we have NFL playoffs to take our minds off of it. I’ll enjoy whatever happens. Good luck to all.

“You’ve never heard of the Millennium Falcon? It’s the ship that made the Kessel run in less than 12 parsecs.”

Correct, perspective needs maintained. But it does feel like things are slowly slipping away. Even so, keep the faith, I will *Yoda voice*

Unfortunately the NAM often sniffs out these thermal issues before some of the globals catch on. Now, it could be off on the track and evolution but I fear it may be leading the way here. Hope to be wrong.

850 advection says it all......

Yep, the dueling SLPs just can't get their act together early enough and consolidate near the coast. A really strange depiction that seems more and more likely to actually happen.

The 1am sounding tells the story, above freezing from ~800-950mb. Really hope the NAM is overdoing this and we can at least hold on a little longer.

By 10pm on the NAM the southern tier counties are already losing the column, with hardly any snow having fallen.

That looks like a pretty darn good map to these eyes. Love the attention to detail in regards to some of the higher terrain areas. Great job @MillvilleWx

Yes, within 48 hours would be more ideal, but it has sniffed out quite a few thigs over the years. I for one do not ignore it. Just another tool in the toolbox. Got it.

Yeah but there were always at least some areas of the forum that were slated to do very well (i.e. I99 corridor, north of I80, etc.), whereas the latest NAM services basically no one outside of the Erie region.

The 12z NAM, verbatim, would be an abject disaster for the entire forum, completely torched.

This is a fair expectation and yes, mixing almost always arrives earlier than modeled, and even before the radars shows it. How many times have we all seen the radar indicating the mix line at least 30 miles to our south and think we have a good bit of snow left, before hearing the pinging a mere three minutes later? Too many times to count.

Man, I'm having such a hard time with this storm, really one of the trickier evolutions I've ever seen. If you told any of us that there would be a coastal getting its act together around Savannah on a day where we start with temps damn near the single digits we'd all take that to the bank. Unfortunately, nothing about this is that clean. Too much latitude is gained by the dueling Lows and the merge pulls the coastal too far west, allowing for the mid-level thermals to be breached in many areas. Heck, we even have to worry about surface temps overnight, and again, this on what started as perhaps our coldest day of the year. But such is life when those easterlies get screaming off the ocean, nothing we all haven't seen many times before. In short, this looks like a classic PA slop storm for those of us in the SC/SE part of the state. We should do alright with the front end WAA thump but then messy after that. The I99 corridor should do very well with this one, congrats to all out that way. One last IMBY tidbit, Lancaster County has been consistently showing up as one of the places with the tightest gradient in snowfall amounts, could easily see places south of Quarryville with only a couple inches and Elizabethtown with 6+". Going to be one heck of an interesting storm to watch unfold and while it's not too late to see some easterly jogs in the trajectory, I think the writing is on the wall for most of us down here in the Maryland border counties. No complaints here though, will gladly take my snow/sleet/ice/rain cake and run. Now let's bring this sucker home!

The only thing I am comfortable predicting at this point is that Mt. Mitchell, NC will be a big winner with this storm. On to the Euro....

Well, after analyzing the overnight runs all you can say is, what a mess. I still think the models are having a hard time with the evolution of this thing and have that jumpy look to them. Which is why I'm sticking with my coastal themed solution, even as, verbatim, model consensus seems to be shifting more towards the due north central PA runner. I just don't trust it, any of it. Need better sampling and a bit more time to work out the finer complexities. As others have mentioned, today and tonight's model runs are huge, and then I think tomorrow 12z is the king-maker.

Well would you like at that, I just found out Blizz is four years older than me. I officially enter my 40s this weekend. Cheers!

Haha that's great, cool little factoid. But why in the heck would they get rid of that site? A pain to maintain? I mean, why wouldn't weather weenies everywhere want an observation station at the highest point in the state??

You know, we really do need someone from the Laurels, preferably an individual who resides in a yurt on the peak of Mt. Davis.

Answer: She goes north. Although the snowfall is still quite robust. 'Tis one model run 4+ days out, gaggles of adjustments yet to sort out.

Where will she go next!?