Mount Joy Snowman

Low of 26. Just got done perusing the 0z/6z model suite and overall pretty solid. I will say, in the aggregate, the mean sleet line seems to reach almost directly over my area by late Sunday afternoon, with the NAM obviously being the most aggressive. Luckily most of the qpf will have occurred by then and the loss shouldn't be too great. We'll have to see if the NAM scores another coup or course corrects to something in between itself and the GFS. I will be keeping a close eye on the Meso's as they come into range today. 12z HRRR just wrapped up and looks good at the end of the run but hard to make much of it at this point. Next 24 hours critical for the MD line folks with regard to sleet impact. Either way, a major storm the likes of which we haven't seen in years is on the way, with deep cold to follow, and perhaps other opportunities thereafter. We've been cold since November so who knows maybe this will be the winter that won't quit. Buckle up friends.

I had noticed this a few times this week, just how well LNS was doing in the low department. Snow cover baby. Love it.

What’s your elevation over there?

KMDT = 15.5” Book it.

Especially me. I think me and @Superstorm may be the most southeasterners on the board??

NAM still bringing the mix after about 8-10" for most of us and bullseyes the I-80 corridor. We'll see if it leads the way or adjusts back in the next 24 hours.

Good to see so many reputable sources so bullish with their opening predictions. I was shocked to see CTP's initial map. Just wow. I love where we sit and see no way we can't win big with what we have diving into this airmass. With that said, there's one small thing I can't totally discount, and that is how many times over the years I've seen occasions where the globals, even in their wheelhouse range, aren't able to pick up on the extent of the intrusion of sneaky warm layers aloft. Then we get inside of like 36-48 hours and the NAM, HRRR, and the gang start to show sleet in places you'd never expect it. Next thing you know, during the height of the storm we're "tainting" as @pasnownut would say, and what was thought to be an epic storm turns into just a nice storm. I just can't shake that thought given some of the globals are already showing it nearby, which is crazy to have to worry about when we're talking about temps in the teens for most of the duration of the event. I know we're still looking at a beautiful front-end thump but I'll be keeping a close eye on the Mesos as they come into range. Let's keep that primary Low at bay, shall we. Despite all that, let's pile it up boys! Next stop, 18z NAM. Onward.

Yeah, this is something I've noticed many times over the years, where a skew-t gives a clear no-doubt-about-it all snow signal the whole way through the column and yet the output will say mix. I have no idea what's going on in the algorithm that causes that to occur. Anyone?

Ukie QPF which stays all snow north of the MD line.....

18z NAM at 84.....

That's my thing, why not show some real gumption and relay this concern when the core of the snow totals were projected along the N. Carolina border, not when it's to the point any novice can see the possibility. Don't do the 'ol "the reason I haven't said anything about the storm is because I feared this thing happening that is now showing to happen on the most recent model runs." Uh huh. Then say that, back when you thought it. Unless of course you never had those thoughts and are just trying to appear like the smartest guy in the room. He could have scored some real points but this just feels like covering his bases mixed with a bit of late-game justification.

Day 6 worrying about suppression and by day 4 worrying about sleet intrusion, got to love the joys of east coast snowstorm tracking haha. I'll plant my flag in Lancaster and take our chances. As others have stated, the opening WAA has to be hefty no matter what given the strength of the antecedent cold airmass.

Was just coming over to say the NAM at 84 looks like an incoming bomb for PA.

Just went by MDT on the train and the river ice is back in a big way. Can’t wait to see what it looks like next week.

Low of 6 at the house and 0 through the rurals. Man, if you thought my pants were tight yesterday morning, whew baby these overnight runs. Well, I’ve officially moved from worried too far south to worried too far north ha. But seriously, what a spot we sit in here in the LSV. Now we just need to survive another 96 hours of windshield wiper model runs. Steady as she goes. Steady.

I saw that, give us more Eric! Also, enjoy your trip pal.

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge. Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked. One of many big Euro runs incoming.

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead.

Yesterday’s early morning snow combined with the late afternoon surprise dusting amounted to an additional 2.5” off of .21” liquid, for a weekend total of 4.7”. Low last night dropped to 14, as this snowpack should really be able to show its teeth in the nights ahead. Hoping for a nice storm this weekend, have to get back into the swing of things. Onward.

My 2.2” of snow melted down to .17”. Man, for what was looking like a nothing burger this weekend is turning into quite the wintry affair. Love it.

Total snowfall of 2.2” here as things wind down.

Big fatties falling here. Like saucers from the sky.

9am Obs: 30/28 with moderate, to at times heavy, snow. Closing in on an inch. Beautiful.

You really are in a tough spot now. Too southeast to cash in on the lake stuff and too west for the coastal stuff. Also lying low between ridges. Rough gig.

I was just coming here to post that. It shows a bit of that localized boom potential that @Itstrainingtime posted about from MU.