Mount Joy Snowman

Primary is just too amped. Nam would be a downer for sure, given expectations, but it definitely does some wonky things from frame to frame. I dont know, but if it scores a victory here......damn.

By 1pm sleet overtakes much of our forum, even ahead of 18z pace, with 6-9" having fallen.

No real changes thru 24 to these eyes.

Warning: The NAM is running. Hide the women and children.

We've been ninja'ing each other all day (that's the term isn't it?) haha. Good stuff Chris.

Sleet battle in York/Lanc all through the mid afternoon hours, then somewhat retreats from 5-7pm. Snow continues as run ends at 7pm Sun with ~9-11" across the LSV. A tightrope across southeastern counties.

HRRR at 1pm Sun has primary a bit stronger with sleet line a smidge north of 18z, hitting PA/MD line, snow at 7-9" at that point. Let's see how she finishes.

HRRR thru 36 has thermals a wee bit warmer and sleet line a skosh north of 18z.

Just for sh$ts and giggles, here is what the GFS threw out for next sunday into monday, just a whole hog coastal bomb. KMJS for the win haha.....

You and everyone else haha. Your post with the skew-t was spot on, how so many people just look at the 850 and 700 panels and assume they're good when it's always that layer in between that gets us. So aggravating for us southeasterners, always fighting it.

GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north. It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us. Need the big thump before any worries arrive.

18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals.

We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north. Bizarre.

You know it's interesting, the NAM run was looking colder and slightly better at all levels during the early part of the run when it's in its prime range but then kind of fell apart later in the run in ways that didn't make sense. I'm not buying it and think by 12z tomorrow it mostly looks like the others. We hope.