Snowfan96
-
Posts
66 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Snowfan96
-
Just keeping it real! I'd love to see this work out, but this isn't our storm.
-
Yes, the NAM does a lot better than people like to admit!
-
Any wrap-around snow east of the Shenandoah Vly would be insignificant. The GFS overdoes that in these scenarios. the boundary level temps will be mostly above freezing, and it may even mix with rain at times, so nothing more than a dusting or coating.
-
Your forecast map looks spot on!
-
The intensity of the WAA should overcome the low level dry air rather quickly, so I think any virga will be short-lived.
-
As we get closer to the event, the hi-res models will better capture how quickly the mid and low levels will warm on the screaming ESE flow and the snow and ice totals will come down in line with that. We all knew it was inevitable.
-
Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely.
-
Absolutely!!
-
My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe.
-
I can almost guarantee the majority of 00z guidance will start to fall more in line with the 18z NAM. The NAM is consistently under-valued in these scenarios.
-
I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain.
-
Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised. The trends among nearly all of the guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 corridor and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well.
-
Remember that when temps are marginal - especially after a mild couple days - elevation is a very important factor. Throw the snow total maps out and focus on climo, low level temps, elevation, and banding.
-
Definitely another example here today where following climo is generally best. The WB Kuchera snow totals are always way higher than Kurchera on Pivotal, etc. 2.8” here - snowing moderately
-
While all model snowfall output has to be taken with a grain of salt, which platform do you all think uses the Kuchera snowfall method most properly? It seems WeatherBell is always cranking out higher totals than Pivotal - despite using the "same" method (Kuchera). Thanks!
-
While all model snowfall output has to be taken with a grain of salt, which platform do you all think uses the Kuchera method most properly - seems WB is always more than Pivotal - despite using the "same" method (Kuchera).
