TimB

I think it’s more likely that we see 85 at some point in the next week and a half than 49, to be honest.

I’m thinking the 64 reached at PIT an hour ago ends up being the official high for the day. Coldest day of the young fall season.

It’s also allegedly raining there? Other places further east where it’s raining are also cold. Latrobe is at 54 and Indiana at 52. As the rain bands advance west, it’ll cool things off.

Normally I’d agree, but the near continuous cloud cover should keep us from radiating much at night.

Given that the 48 observed at PIT earlier this month will likely end up being our low for the month, here’s a look at the top 10 warmest monthly lows for September since observations moved to the airport in 1952: Notice that every September from 1952-1995 got below 45 but 11 of the 28 years since haven’t. Also notice that all 63 Septembers from 1952-2014 got below 47 but 5 of the 9 years since haven’t. Warm temperature records that used to be rare are now happening every other year.

This final third of September looks to continue to be pretty seasonable. If we could just toss out the 5 really hot days early in the month, the rest of the month was just about normal. But we can’t, so we’ll probably end up close to +2. Not terrible by recent standards.

Euro made a move towards the GFS, not a drop of rain for the duration of its run. Endless above normal temperatures too.

Worth noting that the other globals aren’t as dry during that period, nor are the ensembles, and that the day 6-10 outlook from the CPC predicts above normal precip. That isn’t to say the GFS won’t score a big win, but it’s an outlier at the moment.

And if we did get to 70 today with the warm stretch coming up, we could be looking at the 2nd September in the last 5 years that didn’t have a single day fall short of 70 after only one in the 148 years prior.

As always, it’s going to be a close call whether Pittsburgh somehow got there.

That said, it is nearly impossible to get into the 40s in September nowadays. From 1935-2004 (70 years) every single September had at least 4 days get below 50. Since 2005 (18 years), 6 Septembers have had 3 or fewer days get below 50, and this year is looking pretty likely to be the 7th. In fact, this year has a chance to be the 5th September out of the past 9 that had two or fewer days get below 50. Really puts into perspective how much we’ve screwed up September and fall.

Looked at PWS near the airport and every single one of them easily got into the 40s, some as low as 42 or 43. I know there’s a cold bias on those, but I’m just not buying the 50.

And yet, inexplicably, PIT was the only observing site in the region that failed to get below 50.

No idea why the NWS decided to undercut guidance and forecast a low of 44 this morning, that busted badly and PIT didn’t get below 50.

That said, solid analysis and the rest of it probably is normal variation and not a sign of an obvious issue. Besides, why are we quibbling about a degree or two when the NWS allows the 77.3 monthly mean from September 1881 to stand as a legitimate record?

2018 was the year there was an obvious sensor issue at PIT for the first 10 days of the month, so it’s tough to make any comparisons using that month. Not only was PIT 3-4 degrees warmer during the heat wave early that month, it was also 3-4 degrees warmer for the duration of the remnants of Gordon when there was no insolation, etc. to produce any variation.

PIT has to be running high. 67 at PIT, 64 at AGC right now.

This morning’s low of 60 is our 9th low of 60+ this month, making this the 9th consecutive September with at least 9 lows of 60+. Prior to this stretch, we’d never done that more than 5 years in a row at the airport, and never at any observing site in the period of record outside of an extremely suspect stretch from 1889-1913 where every September had double digit days with lows of 60+.

People with too much time on their hands probably should use it for good instead of silly little side quests like disproving climate change by setting up a weather station in such a way that the data is clearly manipulated.

It’s almost like you can’t splice a couple decades of your own PWS records into an official threaded record at a different location dating back to 1894 (unless you live on the property where the old records were kept) and not get laughed at.

Lol

PIT is over an inch. About 3/4” of which fell in 8 minutes.

Lol

Another 90. First heat wave by definition since 2020. Also the 4th heat wave at least partially in September since 2010. Prior to that we hadn’t had one in September since 1973.

91 again so far. 4th time since 2011 that we’ve done 91 back to back in September. Prior to 2011 it hadn’t happened for 28 years.