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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    10:1 ratios are a solid bet when the ground is still practically like the surface of the sun and temps while snow is falling will be marginal.
  2. TimB
    We’ll definitely get our snow while a big 1035 high meanders around the east for days on end. I’m not worried at all.
  3. TimB
    Fair enough. That big midwestern ridge does struggle to translate east on the Canadian.
  4. TimB
    Yeah, the Canadian has a much colder look for a week from now.
  5. TimB
    Delayed but not denied.
  6. TimB
    And it’s basically gone at 0z. Hard to say we’re all that close to our first snowfall. CPC is forecasting a period of near normal temps, but with the caveat that they’re extremely bullish on this period being bone dry. (Not that “normal” in mid-December does all that much for us anyway.)
  7. TimB
    Indeed, it’s been a long, long time since we’ve had something like this on any model inside 5 days.
  8. TimB
    You’d be talking about this one (2020). Looks a lot like what the Euro just modeled, but we must remember there was a ton of cold air with that one and temps hovered around 20 on the back end of that storm, something that is severely lacking this time.
  9. TimB
    They’re both me. I alter my posting style between the three accounts just enough not to arouse suspicion. Or so I thought.
  10. TimB
    2020-21 was a good winter mostly because December was good and started with a big storm on the very first day of meteorological winter, which is looking highly unlikely for a repeat given the El Niño base state and current modeling. Not saying we can’t have a good January/February, but this winter likely isn’t going to look like a carbon copy of 2020-21.
  11. TimB
    With thanksgiving trending closer to seasonable rather than anomalously cold, we still have a shot at every day in November having a high of 40 or above. We also did it in 2020.
  12. TimB
  13. TimB
    AGC did briefly get to 39 or 40 just before the 8:00 hour. But yeah, there were some hourly obs last night where that difference was 10 or 11 degrees.
  14. TimB
    Already into the 60s.
  15. TimB
    Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.
  16. TimB
    It’s less impressive than the 72 we hit in the wee hours of the morning of December 22, 2013, much deeper into the cold season.
  17. TimB
    Looks like today’s records are the only ones that occurred beyond the first week of November. And most of the others were set during the memorable November heatwaves of 2015, 2016 and 2022. Jesus, we almost hit 70 this morning.
  18. TimB
    Probably not particularly uncommon, as today’s low will be well below that and nowhere near the record warm min (61) at 11:59pm.
  19. TimB
    Nothing like waking up to it still being 64 degrees at 6am in November.
  20. TimB
    I feel like they’re often incredibly bad at this. The probabilities were posted by NWS on social media:
  21. TimB
    I’d say continuing our streak of above average temperature months is a good bet, and with a Niño December we may get to 10 above normal months this year:
  22. TimB
    It’s probably a function of being further from the coast but more importantly it’s likely a function of not getting lake effect clouds and junk on those clear cold nights.
  23. TimB
    This morning was no exception. Washington Dulles and Knoxville both got colder than we did. So did Huntsville, Alabama.
  24. TimB
    Especially when you consider all time record cold. Some warmer cities are better at extreme cold than we are. Cincinnati has been colder than we’ve ever been on three different dates. Knoxville, TN has been colder than we’ve ever been once. Louisville’s all time record low is the same as ours.
  25. TimB
    Fairly soft daily record considering there are quite a few late October days with records in the teens to low 20s, I thought we had a shot at it. Still have yet to set a daily record low in 2023. Last daily record low was set in the middle of the afternoon on 12/23/22.
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