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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. NAM mixes it to hell too. Stick a fork in it. WHAT THE FUCK DO WE HAVE TO DO TO GET AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AROUND HERE? IT’S BEEN 22 FUCKING MONTHS.
  2. 3.7” at 10:1. All the mixing issues and shit cut the kuchera in half.
  3. 0z HRRR was garbage but sometimes it has bad runs.
  4. The last snowstorm we had was that 9” event in March 2022 and they rolled with an advisory. Sure, it was a weekend in the middle of the night and most fell in a few hours so they probably didn’t have time to change it before it was too late.
  5. They’ve busted hard with the last few rainstorms forecasting way more rain than we actually got so maybe a little gun shy.
  6. Yeah, you’re most likely right. It’s just this looks…strange.
  7. NWS point and click and zones still seem wonky, as far as timing, probabilities, amounts, etc.
  8. I would expect at least some rain. Synoptic systems that are 100% snow are nearly impossible here.
  9. I’d like to break our already ridiculous streak of no advisory level snows.
  10. Who knows. There is literally no model or forecast anywhere that shows 17 inches for any location anywhere near here.
  11. Euro improved. Dumps a pretty quick 4-5 inches.
  12. Pittsburgh Regional Transit posted on social media something about “1-17 inches of snow” predicted for parts of our area.
  13. Back in the game on the Ukie, for whatever that’s worth.
  14. And the accumulations are going to be limited by air temps slightly above freezing and warm ground, so we’ll need the heavy rates to verify to even have a prayer.
  15. If this piece of shit turns out to be a mini 1/19/19 I’m done with weather.
  16. Both NAMs look fantastic. The 3k gives a couple hours of 2”/hr rates.
  17. NWS has also introduced a good chunk of the period where snow will mix with rain. But they do mention the HRRR in their forecast discussion.
  18. I wonder if this is just having a better memory of when things went awry vs. when they went right, or more the fact that most snowstorms in PA trend towards climo, which, outside of the mountains, sucks.
  19. The latest GFS suggests that nothing is a distinct possibility.
  20. I know storm 2 is primarily a rain storm but I see our normally conservative NWS rolled it out with a 90% chance of precip from the get go.
  21. That will be melted by afternoon with temps in the mid 30s.
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