TimB

The Arctic high seems to squash our storm track in that solution. Still a lot of time for that to resolve. Of course, the first step is that the storm has to exist, even if it’s currently depicted as spreading a wintry mix across NC/SC.

Looks like it could still give us a few inches of snow, and pours in the bitter cold behind it just like the Euro. Bottom line seems to be we’re still very much in the game for a subzero night this winter.

The whitest Christmas ever, in fact!

Indeed, it’s not reasonable to expect a storm of that magnitude, but at this point, even something like the President’s Day 2003 storm would at least make it not crazy to start thinking about catching some of those epic years.

Also: our season-to-date total through today’s date in 1993 was 19.3 inches.

Those early rates were truly impressive. Slept a lot better knowing based on early indications that we would wake up to the 5” the NWS predicted. Looking ahead: the GFS warm-sectors us to death with its Sunday storm and the Euro still doesn’t really give us anything there, but its depiction of the Tues-Wed system is looking pretty fun. GFS slides it south of our area but at least carries a decent system somewhere.

One quick aside to that: Despite that winter, and the following winter being brutally cold, we hit 50 five times through today’s date in 2014 and four times through today’s date in 2015. Anyway, if the GFS and/or Euro somehow verify, there’s a solid shot at being in the 65+ inch range for the season by the end of February.

Just think of the snow ratios in that depiction... I’ll take the GFS’s depiction of that system and the Euro’s depiction of the magnitude of cold air behind it, please.

Oh boy, the 12Z GFS run of that Sunday storm would be a dream!

Upstream advisories continue that thin strip through southern IL, IN, and OH. Of course, their criteria are lower.

I recognize that it’s truly irrational of me to enjoy seeing remarkable weather like a nice brutal cold snap - it’s certainly not comfortable, my house has plumbing that doesn’t enjoy it, and of course a few people die during periods of extreme weather. I also recognize that the 50 degree thing is remarkable in and of itself, on Thursday it will make it into the top 3 all time at Pgh International to begin a calendar year.

Valid point. Can’t have it all, and it’s nice to be worried about “how much snow?” and “how much cold?” rather than “will it ever snow?” or “will it ever get cold?” or “how many February days will hit 76 degrees or more this year?” At the end of the day, while we likely won’t hit -10 or 75 this month, one is certainly exponentially more likely than the other. Side note: after all this time I’ve spent bashing the GFS, the Euro is now showing us as almost the coldest spot in the lower 48 next week at this time.

I’m as much a fan of cold as I am as a fan of snow, which is to say a pretty big fan. These seemingly endless streaks of above normal months that have become so common, especially in the past five years, are exhausting.

Sure enough, the 18z GFS continues the trend of screwing us on snow this week. No remarkable snow, no remarkable cold, just a typical February with slightly below average temps. Maybe we can at least keep our streak of sub-freezing low temps alive and continue our streak of not hitting 50. On a day that will likely end with having to watch Tom Brady win yet another Super Bowl, this run of the GFS might be the most depressing moment of the day.

Snow totals seem to be steady or slightly down from prior run. GFS is actually showing a low 11 for the same time period where the Euro is -4, but the GFS brings similar cold Monday morning so it’s still a possibility.

I suppose it’s just my PTSD from the Great Rainstorm of January 19, 2019 acting up again.

Still not convinced this is an all snow event, though if most of the QPF falls on the front end before the warmer air blasts in on Thursday, we could get a decent system. I trust TWC over Accuweather most of the time because Accuweather loves to put freezing rain in the forecast when it really isn’t a possibility (see their current forecast for Saturday evening, for example).

The Euro, and to a somewhat lesser extent, GFS agree. It seems Accuweather, TWC, etc. have gotten on board. The NWS, of course, is carrying its “a chance (50%) of snow showers” wording that it carries for most winter events that are more than 72 hours out around here.

This pattern is trending much snowier and “warmer” (though still below average). I’d be willing to give up on the polar vortex if (1) we get some decent snow events, (2) we finally end our 8 month long streak of above normal temperatures and our 5 year long streak of above normal temperatures in February, and (3) we end our unprecedented streak of not dropping below 8 for two consecutive winters.

I think ultimately this is probably a different discussion for a different day, but I don’t see an issue with these types of things being partially privately funded or using Russian/Chinese data. I would say it’s similar to my views on (to borrow an example from a completely different field, and of course both are private companies) Boeing vs. Airbus. One is unquestionably superior, despite not being American, and when I book a flight, I try to make sure I end up on a plane built by that superior company. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that most in the weather enthusiast community are intelligent, critical thinkers who recognize that “American” doesn’t necessarily mean “better” or “preferable,” or even “should be used simply because it’s American.” On the same critical thinking token, I’m going to assume that weather enthusiasts find scientific accuracy important and are not typically of the opinion that “we shouldn’t use Russian/Chinese data, even if it allows us to produce better forecasts, because Russia/China is bad.”

I’m just going to go on the record and say that I’m not expecting -19 or even double digits below zero, but to me, if the GFS forecasts a temperature like that and then the Euro ends up verifying with lows in the mid-teens above zero, that is just another nail in the coffin of proving that the GFS is an undeniably inferior model that isn’t worth our tax dollars. We’re not talking about a model being off by 10 degrees a week out. We’re talking about 40 degrees or so at some junctures. I’m not fully on board the “stop wasting our tax dollars on the GFS” train, but I’m a lot closer to it than some are.

Agree on all counts, forecasting conservatively a week out is really the only option. The latest GFS nudged about 10 degrees warmer and will likely fall in line at some point. As for “snow showers,” I’ve seen the NWS be guilty of that too, many times.

The differences between the GFS and the Euro for next weekend are absolutely mind-boggling. Euro brings us slightly below average temps, GFS is suggesting an all time record low max (-5) for Sunday after a morning low of -19 (and negative double digits as far south as Georgia). I’m sure we end up somewhere in between, but we all know the Euro usually “knows” things the GFS doesn’t.

Certainly true. Even with the above average lows, we’ve dipped below freezing for 22 days in a row and counting. The longest such streak last year was 12.

I see where you’re coming from. In my book, lows are part of the picture when it comes to determining if a time period has been “warm” or “cold.” It’s merely a difference of opinion.