TimB

So honest question: why do people view the 6z and 18z GFS as less valid than the 0z and 12z?

Ah, so the NWS doesn’t like this pattern for snowfall.

GFS gives it a similar track, though slightly earlier and with slightly higher temps.

If I were a betting man, I’d say the 2m temperature will not drop below 20 during this event, but that’s an entirely different topic.

Euro seems to be on about 8” of mostly snow, with about 6” in 6 hours between 6z and 12z Tues. Though it’s also mixing p-types with temps in the teens. I’ll bet my entire bank account that not one drop of rain or sleet will fall with an air temperature below 20.

The later week storm seems to be trending west and could destroy our snowpack no matter how much snow we get from the earlier system, especially if the Euro verifies.

Wouldn’t say I’m worried about that, it just speaks to the magnitude of the cold air. Subzero in Dallas has only happened four times in recorded history.

Subzero cold seems to possibly be in the cards for Dallas...

So the setup you’re seeing continues to leave cold air entrenched over our area for most precipitation that falls to be snow?

Ouch. I suppose I’d probably be of a similar opinion in any other winter. But I physically can’t slip and fall on ice and break my neck or wreck my car on an icy road on my way down the stairs to my basement office.

I would take an ice storm over 40 and rainy ten times out of ten.

12z Euro seems to pick up both systems next week. Both a little warmer than I’d like to see, but lots of time!

Regarding what I said earlier about this year vs. 1992-93, all it takes at this point is one big event to be on the cusp of history. This run of the GFS gives us that, and if it somehow verifies verbatim (unlikely, but possible) we would be sitting at 76 inches (6 short of the record) before the end of February.

GFS then puts another system through our area late week.

Historic snowfall in places like Arkansas with that track. 18” in some areas. We need a shift!

This may be anecdotal and obscure, but does anyone remember the January 1999 snow/ice storm? My memory tells me we had sleet/FZRA with temperatures not too far from 17.

Those summertime highs are an interesting trend for sure. It’s a lot more intricate than the fact that we’re getting warmer overall. I wasn’t alive in 1977 but I don’t question it because it was taken at the same site and probably with similar methods to observations taken today. I’m not sure of the official position of the NWS or others who study meteorology for a living on the older data or its accuracy, but I do know this. People on both sides of the aisle have politicized the non-political, scientific issue of climate change. As a result, even if the NWS did a quality control study and determined that the old data to be inaccurate, and put an asterisk next to it in the records, there would be an uproar about “artificially manufacturing or overstating climate change” or even “trying to rewrite history,” even if their reasons for doing so were legitimate. Therefore, the older data is here to stay. With that being said, we’re all free to use whatever data we want to come to whatever conclusion we like. I just choose to only use data from 1948 on because they’re the only numbers that I feel can give me an accurate comparison.

It’s an interesting discussion, to be sure. But the only way to discuss the warmth of the past few years is to compare it to data where it can be compared apples to apples, which unfortunately only goes back to 1948. And 8 months now have recorded a higher average at some point last decade than they ever did in the 60+ years preceding that. In addition to the site where the measurements were taken, I’m going to take an educated guess that there are differences in how they were taken (technology, methods, etc.). Just as an example, I can’t be the only one who thinks that the 77.2 average for September 1881, five degrees higher than any other September, is more than a little suspect. As such, I can’t compare records set in 1881 to observations taken today. Not sure if folks are generally in agreement with this or not.

But 6z GFS comes into agreement with 0z Euro that the Tuesday storm will be mostly rain/ice with very little snow. Hopefully the cold air can stand its ground.

July 2020 was the hottest July and second hottest month (just behind Aug. 1995) ever recorded in Pittsburgh since observations moved to Pittsburgh International in 1948. Feb. 2017 and 2018 are the two hottest Februarys ever recorded at Pittsburgh International. March 2012. April 2017. May 2018. Sept. 2018 and 2015. Nov. 2015. Dec. 2015. All hottest of said month ever recorded at Pgh International. In other words, in 73 years of records being kept at PIT, eight of the twelve months of the year have been the hottest on record in just 9 years.

In winter, yes, absolutely 100% correct. And I also fully agree that we have had a fantastic winter compared to the last five or so. I suppose my comments regarding periods of anomalous cold being exceedingly rare these days are not directed specifically to winter but rather to any time of the year. For example, we are currently at 8 consecutive months of above normal temperatures at PIT (which wouldn’t be alarming on its own, other than the fact that it’s part of a trend which includes a period of 18 consecutive months within the past few years). When was the last time we had even four consecutive below normal months? But that’s another topic for another day, as it distracts from the matter at hand, which is seeing just how high our snow total for this winter can go.

We have some model agreement! (Though the GFS is almost certainly too cold with that system, QPF looks good for our area on both models).

I fully agree with that. A few good snowfalls will do a lot to boost my spirits. I think it’s really just that unseasonably cold periods are fewer and farther between than they used to be in this warming world (and I don’t say that in a partisan way, as climate change is not a political concept, it’s a scientific one), so it excites me when such anomalous cold is hinted at by the models. With that being said, I think we probably end up in the low single digits either above or below zero Monday morning, which is just fine and dandy with me.

Yes, this is a reversal from yesterday. The 0z Euro yesterday had us at -18 Monday morning while the GFS had us at +12. Now the GFS has us at -13 and the Euro has us at +4. The biggest problem I see is that the GFS is taking us to -13 almost entirely on CAA, with clouds sticking around that whole night. Regardless, that is the only morning that has a chance at bottoming out below zero in this pattern. The models have been out of phase all month, save for maybe that time early last week they both agreed we’d be bottoming out around -10 yesterday, today, and tomorrow, and both were of course wrong.

NWS forecasting 2-4 inches in Allegheny County from the Wed-Fri event. Also, even if you take out the Blizzard of ‘93, that winter got about 29 inches from Feb. 10th on. That would put us very close to ‘09-10 for #3.