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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    True. This isn’t 1/19/19.
  2. TimB
    Imagine a scenario where you and your wife haven’t, well, you know, for two years. You elaborately prepare a fancy date night, buy her a beautiful bouquet of flowers, take her out to a nice restaurant, order and drink a bottle of the finest wine on the menu, then come home and hit the sack. All of a sudden, just as you’re getting ready to do the deed, your drunken neighbor barges through the front door thinking he’s at his house but he’s at yours. That’s what happened with this storm.
  3. TimB
    Today is day 21 of what will be the warmest 3 week period starting in January that has ever been recorded at Pittsburgh International, and it’s not particularly close. In fact, even if you include the last day or two of the January cold snap in there, it’s still a full degree or two ahead of the 40.3 recorded in 1974. Today should bring the 21-day average to 42.9 or 43.0.
  4. TimB
    I like how they kept the watch active for 2-4” in the ridges. How can you even justify that?
  5. TimB
    It’s official. 12z HRRR pitched a shutout. Not a flake of snow for the northern half of the county.
  6. TimB
    Guess we stay 2.9” behind last year, the worst winter in the modern record, to date.
  7. TimB
    Waiting at least another 10-11 months for an advisory level snowfall when it’s already been two goddamn years simply isn’t palatable to me.
  8. TimB
    And let’s take a moment to recognize how bad the models are these days, even at very close range. Is that because we’ve rendered our atmosphere unrecognizable by allowing billionaires to take 13 minute private jet flights and pump megatons of carbon into the atmosphere?
  9. TimB
    Worse yet, NYC gets a win out of these new shifts. Why do the least deserving people always get the good trends when they need them?
  10. TimB
    All 0z guidance so far pretty much ends the dream. Fuck this hobby.
  11. TimB
    Yep. Looking like we’re losing the NAM too. Entire precip shield misses us SE.
  12. TimB
    0z HRRR is a buzzkill.
  13. TimB
    Calendar day in and of itself can be misleading, but comparing calendar day records at one location vs another will give you a good idea of which location has better storm climo, which I think is what he was going for.
  14. TimB
    Outside of lake enhancement in NW flow, we have upper south/lower midwest snow climo but northeast advisory/warning criteria.
  15. TimB
    21z RAP is still a beaut.
  16. TimB
    Not sure how much stock anyone puts into the ICON, but improvement to 2-3” at 18z after it had been very consistent in less than an inch for several runs.
  17. TimB
    18z GFS trended back to decent. 3 hours of good snow to get us a low end advisory type event.
  18. TimB
    NAMs also slid SE.
  19. TimB
    Probably won’t even have to shovel.
  20. TimB
    Euro may have put the final nail in the coffin.
  21. TimB
    I know the RAP can’t be trusted at this range or really any range, but it does drop 9” in 6 hours including a couple hours with 2-3” rates.
  22. TimB
    Even with all that radiational cooling we’re still sitting at +13.2 month to date. Just behind 1925 (at a different observing site) for warmest first 10 days of Feb ever.
  23. TimB
    As a second straight winter that is a complete and total failure for the eastern US becomes more and more of a possibility, it’s getting harder and harder to be positive and to not be cynical.
  24. TimB
    This thing is dead. CTP jumping the gun on issuing a winter storm watch with their already piddly 5” criteria compared to the 6” criteria the entire rest of the northeast uses, seems like false hope.
  25. TimB
    We won’t get 10:1 ratios, it depicts temps being above freezing the entire time snow is falling.
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