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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    I’m liking the way this is trending. Advisory level event on most to all guidance at the moment.
  2. TimB
    Where do I sign for the 12z HRRR?
  3. TimB
    Not going to clog up the snow thread, but it’s funny that PIT apparently gusted to 60 at 6:33pm and then a wind advisory was issued 14 minutes later.
  4. TimB
    NAM looked fine too.
  5. TimB
    HRRR improved again at 0z. Now up to a 2-3” type event.
  6. TimB
    18z HRRR was a significant improvement over 12z.
  7. TimB
    That’s fine, we still have 95-96 to replace in the normals.
  8. TimB
  9. TimB
    With PIT sitting at 11.6 for the season, that’s a steep climb.
  10. TimB
    One chance at meaningful snowfall in 2 years! Hope it somehow works out for us.
  11. TimB
    And that’s what it boils down to. A top 5 futility season would be a lot easier to stomach if we didn’t have something eerily similar last year, in a totally different ENSO base state. Could I be less invested in this hobby? Of course, we all could. But even if I weren’t obsessively watching models or looking at stats showing historic winter warmth or lack of snow, these seasons have been bad enough that even the casuals have to be aware that these past two winters have been epically bad.
  12. TimB
    Miss south, next weekend’s storm cuts, another ridge after that, curtains.
  13. TimB
    It’s not going to be an advisory type event. At best it’s the 1-2 type thing you mention. I take that back, there are still a few models like the RGEM that want this to be a low end advisory thing.
  14. TimB
    We have a long way to go if we have any hope of getting out of the worst 20 or even 10 snowfall seasons. Ignoring the fact that 14 of these top 20 seasons were observed at a different site, we’re looking at 3 of the 5 worst seasons at PIT occurring in the past 5 years unless we get another 10” of snow between now and the end of the season. Still need 5” to even prevent this from being the worst in modern history.
  15. TimB
    It’s gone. The secret was that there was never going to be an extended cold stretch because those don’t exist anymore.
  16. TimB
    There is not a single location on this list that is at or above normal to date. Pretty sad.
  17. TimB
    The problem with the weekend storm is there’s not model agreement at this point that the storm will even happen, let alone what areas it would hit, and we’re getting awfully close to the point where that matters.
  18. TimB
    We’ll know very soon if the GFS moves away from cutter.
  19. TimB
    I’m not. Same range of possibilities as the current storm at similar range.
  20. TimB
    Probably. Also, we will be hitting the middle of the month with 0.01” of precip so far at PIT, which is a record for the first half of February. Previous record for that time period was 0.07”.
  21. TimB
    On the GFS yeah. The others have suppressed garbage sliding harmlessly south. Unless you count the 0z ICON. It showed a direct hit of warning type snow. Point being there’s still hope for a middle ground solution where it snows here, but I’m just tired of watching models with no results.
  22. TimB
    And if we’re looking to long-term snow averages at the end of the decade, we’ll already be replacing the 72.1 of 1992-93 with the 17.6 of 2022-23, and now we might be replacing the 76.8 of 1993-94 with like 12-15” in 2023-24. So that’s like a 4” drop in the calculated normals in and of itself, even if the rest of the decade is similar to its 90s counterparts.
  23. TimB
    It’d almost be better if those elitist NYC fucks didn’t get a win out of this storm while we suffered through two snowless winters in a row.
  24. TimB
    Afraid so. After a cold and dry weekend, a ridge next week looks very likely, then maybe another trough, then another ridge on the ensembles toward the end of their run and by then it’s a day away from March. This absolutely fucking blows. I can’t believe we had the two worst winters back to back.
  25. TimB
    Not a drop of precip. Impressive really. Looks like there were even periods of clear skies observed at PIT through the night.
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