bobbutts

Had a few minutes of pea sized hail there. Just a bit of lighting.

that is a few blocks from the tdwr site! Crazy detail

Sorry to hear that. Are they too young to remember Katrina? Maybe have them read up on that.

It wouldn't take much to exceed Charley in surge for that area. It wasn't a factor. Milton is a lock to exceed the surge and unlikely reach the same type of wind damage in Port C/PG.

It is an extrapolation which ignores all other factors besides previous motion. Not intended to be a forecast.

extrapolating the recent radar movement would bring it just up the north side of the bay

Pretty impressive radar image there

Truck tire rolling down the gulf.

Watching a potentially bad surge situation approach a large low elevation population give me Katrina vibes. Having lived in SW FL I know there plenty of stubborn and complacent people who will stay in risky areas too.

what an epic run, at first I didn't even notice that was the second hurricane

To add to your point. Looking at a satellite map should help people who aren't familiar with the area. From the Tampa Bay area and south there is nearly continuous development in potential surge areas right up to the gulf and extensive bays and canals and low lying areas. To the north there's very little development right on the coast.

Charley was running at almost a parallel angle to the FL coast and was a tiny storm with a small patch of major wind damage well inland and relatively limited storm surge. We'll have to watch the details on this but it appears to have greater potential for surge based at this point based on likely storm strength/size and approach angle/speed.