wx_observer

Waking up to a little fresh powder in central MA this morning.

I'm right at the border of N and S ORH county, and we have a dusting of snow so far.

24 hours ago folks were talking about how NYC kids were going to have a remote learning day for nothing more than white rain, and now they're in a meso for heavy snow bands.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/... 10 PM Update... The southward trend continues with 00z NAM, HRRR, WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM. Lowered accum north of the MA Pike where confidence is highest in less snowfall. As a result converted some of the warnings to advisories and dropped the advisory for NW MA. May have to lower amounts further south but no changes made along and south of the MA and will await full 00z model suite before making any changes.

Adding to the epic bust factor…is MA and Boston telling all nonessential state and city employees to stay home tomorrow.

If only the slowly deflating balloon sound effect could be added to this….brrrrrffftttttttttttpppphhhhhhphphph

Slow motion train wreck right there.

When a picture is worth 1,000 busts.

The model shifts are surprising on their own. What seems even more surprising is how confident NWS was in their forecast prior to the shift. This was not a low confidence forecast late morning today.

Ours closed 2 hours AFTER. Go figure...

Why does bust seem like such an understatement for what happened today?

I heard one on the back porch today. Didn't see it, but I know it was there.

Fairly brutal BOX update...since I didn't see it posted here Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England. This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10 inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30- 40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for western and north central MA.

Oof. From solidly in the 12-18" in Worcester to this? Part of me wishes I was a fly on the wall when they had to make this call over at NWS. About 12 hours before the storm, no less.

I can't imagine they've had many (if any) snow days this year. Why not give the kids a real snow day? Who knows when they'll see it again.

12-18 seems pretty aggressive, doesn't it? Did I miss the temps going down enough for there to be a bigger fluff factor? I thought this was expected to be more like white concrete than powder.

What's so odd is that most of them didn't come through to put an end to a stretch of really hot, humid 90+ degree weather. That's usually what drives most of the severe storms around here, if it's not a remnant of a hurricane anyway. Actually, that is more what it reminds me of. How a transitioning tropical storm might kick off severe weather.

And another TOR warning...looks like what started in Scituate is planning to end in Scituate....

That TOR warning appears to have a confirmed tornado with it, according to the text in the warning

Something looks like it wants to get going near Barre

Wish granted...

And fairly long lived too

They took the other MD down altogether. I wonder if they're updating it.

The wind really picked up here in Central MA. If clouds could get a speeding ticket, today would fill the end of month quotas. I wouldn't want to be under any weakened trees with how saturated the ground is, even with the non-thunderstorm winds out there right now.

Here too