SoCoSailer

Idk to me that’s a pretty noticeable difference in the orientation of the trough. NAM digs it deeper and sharper, allowing the low to run more NNE than NE

Early on there are changes on the 18z NAM. Energy is diving into Montana vs Idaho on its last few runs

In Oceana for the weekend, I would guess we got 5.5” here, but it’s hard to measure with the drifts

3k NAM is close for DC. Has been trending better the last few runs

Not to derail the conversation, but the 12z FV3 gets snow up to the beltway now

Didn’t see it posted, but 18z Euro still supports significant snow for SE Virginia. I’ll be staying in Oceana this weekend so fingers crossed it’s right

Verbatim the 12k NAM is a 36 hour storm for SE Virginia. There’s going to be a narrow stripe for someone to get crushed

Canadian trended better at H5. SS sw further east this run but low still skirts the southern portion of the area

FWIW The long range Hrrrr holds onto hope for the warm nose not being as strong as modeled by the NAM

Hurricane force gusts in OC

Total precip that falls before 850s spike at DCA

It seems we want the initial wave weaker and further south. Every run that has brought snow to the region has the initial low tracking just north of us vs. almost Buffalo. 18z Nam has that idea and at the end of the run it looks to be setting up for a potential hit. Hopefully this is the start of a trend

Tried to intercept the storm near Federalsburg earlier. Looks like the tornado must have briefly lifted as it went over me, but I had a great shot of the wall cloud as it went over me

Lat 38.759215, - Long 76.561139