mannynyc
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Everything posted by mannynyc
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It's worse than that. For some folks it's not a pattern change unless we get a massive coastal storm.
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Well at least we have 300+ hour fantasies
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People forget that last winter was so bad we weren't even getting 300 hour fantasy blizzards from the GFS
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I mean the coastal low is there, but so is the rain...
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Not a great look on the GEFS ensembles but it's better than tracking nothing
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Doesn't need to be a big piece storm to end NYC's snow drought. A well placed piece of energy can give us 1-2 inches and remove the lid.
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Obviously not great but a 1-3 degree F anomaly doesn't mean it can't or won't snow, though it certainly will be harder. This shouldn't be used as a declaration of winter being over.
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It's May 12th and I'm already ready for Winter. Good grief
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And that's why I spend my summers in Maine
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Yup, there was still some light snow at 7:30PM/8PM tonight
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Obviously disappointing we didn't get a significant snowfall in NYC, not that one was expected, but walking outside with the snow falling this evening really reminded me why I loved winter. There was something about walking through the snowfall and seeing it gleam in the light that made me really happy.
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Radar is filling in nicely. Best chance for accumulating snow, especially outside NYC, the next few hours.
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The GFS has been in and out for a perfect coastal storm for this time period. Would like more ensemble support but this is still in a reasonable window.
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RGEM has a warm bias, that's why it was showing rain instead of the snow the city is getting. Something to note when using it, especially with borderline events.
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Wouldn't put too much much faith in the NAM at this point. It's not picking up on the secondary low over CT.
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Models suggest the snow is going to dry up by then
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Snow mixing with rain in the city. Nothing unexpected
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Still think north shore will accumulate. Lots of models like bands setting up over LI. On the other hand, every time the GFS has shown 1-2inch in the city nothing has fallen so I’m betting against anything in the city.
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This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates.
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I think the north shore is one place that has an oppertunity to bust high. Looks like they might get a nice band of snow as the low pulls out
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Higher than the NAM. Hard to believe
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
mannynyc replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
3k NAM still has the low hundreds of miles off shore -
Do you trust the long range HRRR or the NAM? Or maybe neither?
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NAM is west because of course it is
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Timing is another thing that has burned us with this storm. Going to be hard to accumulate in the mid-30s in the middle of the day, especially in the City and south.
