mannynyc
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Everything posted by mannynyc
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CMC has same trend as the GFS
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GFS moves the low north east. That allows the city to get into heavier snow bands late in the storm.
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6z GFS ensembles. NYC right at the edge of a moderate snowfall
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I wouldn’t put too much faith in mesoscale models this far out but there certainly is an increasing chance of storm 1 working out.
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Officially .1 inch in Central Park. Surprised they measured anything, there was nothing on the ground in Midtown when I looked at about 5:30AM.
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The NWS likes to be, for good reason, as cautious as possible with their forecasts, especially this far out with nothing close to model consensus. The cold air is certainly an issue, but it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. We aren’t the NWS. This weekend and next weekend are our bests shots for a moderate snowfall this year, but it is far from a sure thing.
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Ensembles look good. Not everything is going to be a hit this far out. We just want the signal for a strong coastal storm.
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GFS moves north as well
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3k NAM moved north, right over Central Park.
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12z GEFS ensembles for Tuesday
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The GEFS ensembles look really for March 11-17. 9 of the 20 members have signifcant coastal storms.
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12z GFS appears to have moved slightly north, but not a significant change
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Central Park officially measured 0.9 inches of snow at 12AM last night. 1.3 inches for the season. It snowed since then so that number should increase. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=CLINYC&e=202302280621
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Looking good for all Snow in Central Park when they measure at 1AM. Side streets in Manhattan and even some sidewalks are starting to get covered.
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Rain/Snow line continues to inch north, but the radar is starting to fill in again
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Latest Central Park OBS 33/31 0.11inch of precip https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
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Looks like one more band to come through NYC before a lull. Mixing line sneaking north.
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Latest OBS from Central Park 34/29 0.03in of precip https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
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Grass beginning to be covered in Manhattan. Officially our second biggest snowfall of the year
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Snowing in midtown!
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40/17 per the 5PM obs at Central Park
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Models, especially the GFS, are essentially useless at this point. Radar seems to look more like the HRRR than the NAM,
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8 inches of snow forecasted is generally when they start calling school in the City. Not happening here.
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There will likely be a significant difference in what falls in Co-Op City and Coney Island. This is one of those events where it really depends on where banding sets up. Super hard for models to accurately pinpoint.
