SnowenOutThere

When will recon get into Grace? Do we have an hour also for future reference where can I find when recon is scheduled?

The convection is still going strong with a nice sustained core of pink/white on Ir sat. Looks good on visible with outflow and such, will be good to get some real observations when it gets to the leeward islands. Would not be surprised if it gets there in its current state to be stronger than advised.

with the 8 am update it is now Tropical storm Grace, has a really good presentation on Ir and visible.

18z HWRF has the storm miss the islands and Puerto Rico and has it as a cat 2 off the islands north coast

Wow! That is super cool with how its evolving if you want to/can I would recommend trying to get a timelapse going.

Wow storm popped right next to me and was right over me worst lightning I can remember so many close cloud to ground strikes, one hit in my neighborhood. Then the rain started and it looked to be a normal storm until the trees making up the tree line gusted then bam heavy rain wind and hail. Rain came down in sheets while it hailed (pea size maybe a bit bigger) and wind whipped the trees. Got .70 inches of rain in 20 minutes

I retract my complaints, really windy started to hail worse thunder and lightning I remember cloud to ground strike in our neighborhood and rain coming down in sheets. Sticks down all over the place.

Large blowup of convection.

Its these days that make me want to switch to geology.

It’s so close yet so far no rain only thunder.

Have been watching this slowly slide away to the north. This is painful.

Where even is the center, does it even still have one? It has convection but where is the center did it transfer to the main convection blowup south of Cuba, is it along the coast of Florida or something else?

I hope we it misses Hispaniola and curves out to sea with a pinhole eye, best of both worlds big storm and no damage.

New Achievement Unlocked : Seabreezed away

Pictures/timelapse maybe if you want to?

I'm in my teens so i'm not great with forecasts or any of that and my posts lean somewhat heavily on banter or misinformed takes but I still try to make a good post once in awhile and a big draw to being here is having people who know what they are doing so you get a better picture but also learn from them. Banter is still fun though.

Watch DMAX come and go and nothing happen after waiting all this time.

It’s orthograpically enhanced the bottom “claw” of the island has mountains.

Looking at that and the storm might be able to ninja it’s way into the bay avoiding the worst of the mountains.

Latest satellite shows a pretty good outflow and new Blowup of storms at the core, looking pretty good for a storm crossing the islands.

Radar looks pretty good but there is a gap in the warning line hope it fills in.

Like I said when has the HWRF been right? It should almost always be used as the worst case scenario.

Though the HWRF is unlikely it does make me nervous, it has a strong cat 1 or low end cat 2 hit a populated area. This would be terrible but what makes me nervous is that it hits early Saturday and 24 hours before it is not even a tropical storm, this means that Florida would get at best 1 day warning about a storm that would be rapidly intensifying. When they wake up on Friday they see a tropical depression (if they even know that because it is only a depression) by lunch and when they go to sleep it still would not be a hurricane only a tropical storm so people would go to bed to a tropical storm then when they wake up there is a hurricane outside. Seems like a bad combination, but when has the HWRF been right?

Well it’s over

Looking at the IR satellite it looks like the main convection is heading south? What is this thing doing, is it going to try to go beneath the Dominican Republic and Haiti because if so it will either die or get the 1/100 shot go underneath and realize that Cuba exists.