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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    I may be wrong but the radar seems pretty ahead of schedule? If anyone smarter than me wants to weigh in on that, it would be appreciated.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Considering I live more or less exactly where you did I'll just take this verbatim, hoping for a solid 4-7 down here with some solid jebwalks during the evening
  3. SnowenOutThere
    It does actually have a semi precarious warm nose near 850 for NOVA, and the whole column seems a bit warmer overall which isn't the greatest.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Can't wait for the rain in Germantown
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Listen we all make mistakes, the important thing is that I've been publicly humiliated enough to not attempt a play by play till at least the next storm.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Verbatim inch per hour plus rates during the evening as the sun sets.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Whole lot of lift throughout the column, including the DGZ. If this sounding came true would the dominate snowflake type be dendrites or a combo of all of them?
  8. SnowenOutThere
    I actually think you were initially right, at least for the 12z with its 21 hour precip panel being a shellacking.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Looking at the 12z NAM im not so sure I'm seeing what you're seeing. The precip field looks further south...
  10. SnowenOutThere
    That may be the stupidest schedule I have seen in my life, but thank you for it as I now have complete justification to skip because I don't want to spend 2 hours in AP Capstone.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    36.7 and dropping near Reston, fcps with a 3 hour early release but may just be “sick” and go on a hike down near Front Royal
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Well to be fair with all of the 1/6 comparisons something that may be in this storms favor is better lift in the DGZ which really held 1/6 back from achieving much beyond its low end forecasts
  13. SnowenOutThere
    I know everyone is excited over the NAM (and we should be!) as it provides a good high range output, but the 12z HRRR I think provides a decent example of what a low end "bust" output would be for the region (and even then its not that bad).
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Not sure if I’m late but winter storm warnings are up for some of the southern counties
  15. SnowenOutThere
    12z NAM has a solid thump of sleet for Thursday as well
  16. SnowenOutThere
    One thing I dislike about the NAMs compared to their 18z runs is the earlier shutoff of precip as the coastal low exists faster.
  17. SnowenOutThere
  18. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM looks better too btw
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Still has amazing lift in the DGZ too
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Has widespread 30s at Precip onset during midday Tuesday so I doubt much "wasted" QDF
  21. SnowenOutThere
    It looks colder too @NorthArlington101
  22. SnowenOutThere
    that is 18z
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Seems like there is way more moisture with this NAM run, I love the NAM when it does it's NAM things.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Considering it has us nearly 7-10 degrees above other guidance I think its safe to disregard it.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Next storm may continue 6z's solution of having some ice before a switch to rain.
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