SnowenOutThere

Tried to look at the 500mb to get a better answer. As others in this thread have said the basic issue is we are stuck in a NW flow pattern. The maps (one from our rainy week a couple weeks ago and one from a day ago) show the difference This one clearly shows a southeast ridge with a ULL in the plains which helps transport moisture up the east coast and wring it out. Clearly, this is the pattern we need to get some rain. Notice the wind barbs out of the southeast from the Gulf. Meanwhile, this is the pattern we get. Beautiful weather but no moisture to be found in the upper air (unless you're hoping the Great Lakes save us). You can see the ULL over Maine with a ridge over the center of the country. Now, the question is will things actually change? Using the EPS to look forward and its not great. The forecast through at least next week is paltry with the upper air moisture transport as a ridge intensifies to our north. However, by mid month the pattern starts to breakdown and we see a more favorable setup return. The GEFS suggests a similar reshuffling that helps us out as well. In the meantime, we're sorta cooked.

In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck.

4.1 inches of rain since Wednesday. Went on a walk yesterday and all the rivers were flowing and the ponds/lakes were full with some minor flooding.

Great Falls was pretty nice today. Full but not overflowing and the trees/plants all looked happy.

Looks like all the models give us another .5-2 inches of rain beyond this current system. CMC and GFS have it mainly fall on Monday-Tuesday with it's specific disturbance while Euro focuses it more with Thursday.

If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac.

For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.

I’ll happily be enjoying my 30 degrees with ripping snow on the trails of WV.

I like the look of everything down south right now. Besides, our main rain batch is tomorrow all day (morning rain shield to spotty heavy showers).

Still have 1000+ CAPE for the immediate suburbs to help wring out the now moist atmosphere. As long as we can buy some forcing we should be able to rain. Hopefully the front sags south to help out the people who got skunked earlier.

One of the freakier experiences I’ve had so far with thunderstorms. Went for a brief walk once the gust front passed and could feel the new cells building ontop of me. Super gusty winds with low level scud clouds moving every which way.

I need that cell out near the plains to hold together and not drift north. Still hasn't shown a microburst signature of collapse yet, but the gust front is far out ahead of it so I doubt it can keep going forever.

Southern severe cell is aimed directly at my backyard. Time to see if it falls apart or microbursts overhead.

Areas along the Fredrick cells might need a flash flood warning with the training motion if they don’t collapse on themselves.

Two more severe warnings just went up out near the VA/WV border

It just doesn’t even initiate with them. Can’t kill what you’re not modeling.

Anywho, low level lapse rates are past 9 degrees C/km so we’re approaching unconditionally unstable with 2000+ Cape and 1300 DCape. I’d imagine things pop off quickly near DC once outflow boundaries reach us

They have 40 day forecasts in the future you know!

We did get a 2inch precip storm in January. Just nothing before or after. Which seems to be our pattern now

Even yesterday could feel the ability for the DCape to work its magic from the gust front winds alongside gusty winds with a downpour. Just need some taller cells to full take advantage of it.

Betting we get storms that pop up in the inner burbs once the gust front hits the bay/river breeze boundary. The gust front came through a bit ago and dropped temps nearly 15 degrees so it’s legit. Now about to get some rain hopefully.

Any met want to weigh in on if Spruce Knob WV should be clear enough to stargaze tonight? Seems like it’s my last day to do so for a while.

Thoughts on today? I listed out some of my thoughts in the Discobs thread but do we have any hope of a boundary causing forcing?

We’re already over 2000 CAPE, -6 lifting index, 7.5 ML lapse rates, and lost 150 CIN in the past three hours. It sucks we have no shear or forcing because our thermodynamic parameters are really good! We even got 1200 DCAPE for severe winds. Maybe a bay breeze boundary can get parcels to the LFC?

I like how at the end of its run we get days of summer storms. Hot and humid of course, but with daily storms is nice.