SnowenOutThere

What about (apologies for asking) the NAM, CMC, Ukmet, icon?

Saw that post and realized our power is fucked.

I need a Publix nearby their chocolate milk is top tier. I went to a swim meet in Florida during junior year and drank so much of it

Will forgo the analysis post for today, frankly these recent runs have got me rather confused and we got the legendary data ingestion for 0z Will probably aim for 12z runs tomorrow as when I make it.

Any idea why all these H5 changes aren’t really translating to the surface?

The warm layers in this case aren't really hidden at all. I mean look at this wind map lmao If we have 70-80+ kt winds from the gulf we're going to have mixing no matter how much cold air you dump into the CAD.

This is what I'm confused about. The 18z Euro from my view of its H5 vort and height should've been an improvement or more southeast yet it went further northwest (not for DC in particular but I went from a foot to six inches and from .3 of ice to .6 and an inch or two of sleet). I'm honestly not sure what happened to cause the warm air intrusion further south. Comparing the 18z Euro to 12z as Terpeast noted we see a good amount less phasing When looking at the vort maps it becomes even stranger to me that things went the wrong way at the surface as the NS appears almost close to crushing the SW, especially if it was displaced any further east. Meanwhile 12z Euro has a whole ass triple phaser The only negative I can denote is slightly less confluence on the 18z? Maybe? Either way it just shocks me the changes out west had no impact on the surface. Maybe if we got another run that had these exact changes we would see more meaningful consequences?

One of the highlights of my discussion today will be the increased NS we’ve seen in the past 24 hours

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event.

Just doesn’t have that second NS lobe like the other models do. Gives me some hope that even if they meet in the middle we won’t see a super amped solution.

I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed")

I was in a class whats up. I will also be in another class for the next 50 minutes but then the synoptic analysis three will be worked on.

18z NAM near hour 50 showing more separation of the NS and SW hypothetically it should be useful during that time frame

But it ends after 96 hours. So technically I’m going to claim it’s 4 days out to perserve my pride

Finally I can freak the fuck out! I'm scared as hell about how this evolves. We are playing with the mix line 4-5 days out and just lost our suppressive TPV off East.

Done!

Get your memes, whining, and side tangents ready for the real banter thread! Please try to use this thread to keep the other one more readable.

Thats tonight! We aren't making a new thread within 12 hours of this one!

I think if there's a time to make a dedicated storm thread and a dedicated banter thread its now.

Interestingly NWS still has their forecast show an all snow storm for Cvill

Sure. 12z Yesterday 18z 0z (Biggest shift) 6z 12z

I mean its frankly a ridiculous setup. In any other world where we have a -2.5 sigma 500mb anomaly centered over north/south Dakota we would be looking at a cutter that puts us in a 70 degree warm sector. Instead we are still managing to get a snowstorm out of it!

Hate to ask a question fully motivated out of my personal interest but where do you think the northern extent of this ice storm (.25+) probabilities lie? Personally I can handle synoptic analysis but thermals hurts my brain.

Tallied up the amount of storms that are too north, too south, and misses (under 6in across NOVA). 0z 5 Maxes to the south 14 Maxes to the North 3 Misses North; 1 Miss South 12z 5 Maxes to the South 15 Maxes to the North 9 Misses North Unfortunately the data pretty strongly reflects the assumption that the probability decrease is caused by mixing concerns. Lets hope for future runs that 9 misses north comes down.