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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    Snow ending for all but Delmarva.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Can see the dipole low form in response to the best H5 diffluence being over the coast.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Placed right under the left exit quadrant of the jet streak
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Quite the nice H5 and surface low panel
  5. SnowenOutThere
    No matter what it is a hit. Now its time to see the upside.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    H5 vort at hour 93 seems to support a tuck
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Surface is low is both notably stronger and focused more westward at hour 87.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    GFS appears to be coming in with a deeper H5 low. Now just need to see if it can 1. induce cyclogenesis soon enough 2. capture it
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Both have Charlottesville only gaining snow run to run. #Trend #Snowtown
  11. SnowenOutThere
    With this setup maybe we have so many opposing ways this storm can go wrong that they end up canceling each other out
  12. SnowenOutThere
    I hope ships avoid that blob of FGEN or risk getting sucked up to the 700mb layer
  13. SnowenOutThere
    From my brief analysis the issue is that the H5 jumps east a bit which prevents the surface low from retrograding near Chesapeake and crushing us. Don't quite know why this happens but I'm not too worried about the specific outcomes till later this week. Was very close.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Can see how you get the dynamics that jump east with the coastal
  15. SnowenOutThere
    H5 captures and stacks with surface low here
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Now thats how you do a CCB
  17. SnowenOutThere
    CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    CMC will be a vort pass over out latitude
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Not really! I'm saying that this run is probably further off of a real blizzard than some of its runs yesterday. The mechanism that allowed for us to get near 6 inches of snow is different than the mechanism that would promote a blizzard. Yes, the two are linked, but we would need a dramatic change with the H5 low capturing the surface low instead of simply providing upper level diffluence which promotes lift of the moisture fetch from the Atlantic!
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    10-1 ratios
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Still some more to go for VA at the hour I took this snapshot
  23. SnowenOutThere
    All of this is frozen I believe
  24. SnowenOutThere
    GFS looks pretty good.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks! I got super lucky with the sun breaking out. Always love entering Whiteoak through the lower entrance as the whole place is just magical.
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