SnowenOutThere

I may not be the most informed poster here but this is a bit concerning if the models continue kicking the can, or maybe the last two runs are just flukes and it will go back to a Jan 6th transition. If it does not however than we have to realize that this pattern change went from after Christmas to after New Years to now possibly mid month? By that point we might have to accept that nothing will happen if the can kicking continues.

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

For you yes, for areas near the beltway we got sleet and freezing rain.

Against our big rival team tonight. Swimming 50 free 200 free relay and 400 free. These are some events I can get behind, pretty excited.

It’s the miracle storm, that’s it’s name.

Just need to move it up by a day.

12z CMC has the pre Christmas threat far further north like the GFS and a nice all snow start to the potential post Christmas storm.

It is till 7ish days out but ultimately unless there is a huge shift in the guidance soon I fear you are right. We always have next year for a White Christmas.

Made an estimated snowfall program in python yesterday. It takes in the ICON, GFS, EURO and CMC as inputs then weights each of them differently before factoring in how many days out the snowstorm is. For example a snowstorm that is 2 days out gets the mean of the models multiplied by .85. Thinking of adding in a likelihood percentage or something. Anyone have any ideas of what I could add?

Got it, now know which day to wear shorts.

Am I one of them?

From what people are saying this upcoming post Christmas through Mid January looks to be a pretty good pattern for us. What should we roughly expect snowfall wise? I know nothing is certain but by the end of this pattern should we at least get one storm?

Popping in from another subform, looks pretty nasty today. Someone @ me if there are snownadoes.

My friend texted me with an image of his teacher for advisory showing the class the 0z Canadian model run, was like "its you". Told him it most likely won't snow.

at least give me credit for being a downer.

I know just posted it because it’s something fun to think about. In fact I made a post earlier about how things never go the way we thought 7 + days out.

GFS has a quick shot of snow focused south east on Christmas Eve for our area.

Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously.

Lock in p15

Also was just put in 100 breaststroke for the meet.

Still going almost looks like two couplets

Its still going strong.

Holy crap just checked RadarScope, looks like April out there.

Finished my meet, did very well in my events. Got a best time in 100 free getting a high 51 and the team sort of destroyed the other one again.