SnowenOutThere

With my analytical post I don't think its time to cliff jump yet; this storm is just way too complicated to know if that change is real or imagined. However, if we continue to see the GFS (and Euro moves to it) fail to consolidate around a southern vort max by tomorrow at 12zish or absolute latest tomorrow 0z I think then it is time to call it.

Its an odd run as several things go better for us. 1. The shortwave out ahead of it is further northeast which should help it amplify (unless for some reason this is too much spacing so it stays positively tilted?). T2. he wave spacing behind it also appears a bit better with more separation too. However, the reason it fails seems to be a difference around the hour 60-80 mark where there isnt quite the same level of vorticity maximum on the southern side of the lobe as it dives south so the trough doesn't quite consolidate and remains spread out. 18z on top and 12z on bottom. Can really see how this messes up the storm as it progresses east to our area where its all one big vort instead of being a southern maximum. Unfortunately, by remaining broader it also ruins our ability to go negative as quickly which really hurts us even more. 12z once again shows that difference with the additional southern closed isobar helping it tilt neg more. Hopefully this changes back but as a reminder this happens earlier in the run so we will need to watch for improvement here soonish to keep the chances of a good storm up.

It almost appears similar to the Icon with it washing out the vort which the GFS and Euro make our storm from. If that happens as depicted its game over, and with that only being 4 days away we should know sooner than later whos right.

It has a very weird solution (not that ANY of the models show a "normal" storm). It pretty much has the vort lobe which all other models have takeover get killed off by one in southern Canada... which seems odd. However, I think that it did improve H5 wise and was generally further south so if it didn't have that progression it would've been Euro or GFS like.

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading

Didn't know you went to UVA! What did you study and any tips for myself?

Would we even know where the banding would setup or is it almost fully a nowcast situation and praying it goes over your house?

Snow shower tried to pull a day after tomorrow impression.

Cape storm is weird too on the Euro. Doesn't seem to really get anything to happen due to extremely poor wave spacing and no gulf moisture.

After looking at temps I'm guessing that maybe .2ish of that is snow

Precip total from the event

Has a weird surface low progression of forming over MD moving to off to the tip of long island and then reforming over southern New Jersey. Not sure if that plays out good or bad for us.

Heres vorticity at 108 which is generally further north than its 6z counterpart.

Pops a low over MD

Euro has the main ball of vorticity at the same latitude but a little further East owing to a greater separation of southern and northern energy

Back at uva for the rest of my tracking so I’ll get to do analysis on the big screen

Radar west of the mountains looks decent if it’ll hold together. Guess we have plenty of sun unlike any other convective setup

The fact we are comparing the hour 84 NAM to Icon really makes me think we’re insane

Wonder if it’s almost a case of too much of a good thing at h5 with the bombing out. Maybe with such an intense depression in the atmosphere it encourages surface cyclogensis to progress through its stages too rapidly. Subsequently it’s too late to actually develop a good moisture fetch as the moist air transport is cut by the occlusion. Though honestly I have no clue. Only other thing that I think lends credence to my theory is that the upper levels are so dominant it forces cyclogenesis over the middle of NC instead of the normal coastal temp gradient. Dunno how we actually improve this situation though (as in what to watch for)

I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level

I mean from what is advertised it makes sense but its just crazy to see the main vorticity go from central MN to central MO without moving any further east. An additional question I have is what makes some vorticity to be ropes vs lobes. I understand its a measure of small air parcels spinning counterclockwise which indicates diffusion in the atmosphere which is tied to upper level winds and temp advection but still cant quite grasp why it actually appears like it does.

I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map

118 temps are iffy