SnowenOutThere

I think we should feel better knowing this was a synoptic scale shift instead of a thermal driven one. Less likely it seems for a dynamics model to beat out the Euro and Gfs on the large scale picture.

Alright sounds good! I’ll go over the weather unit I look as part of my class last fall. Before that though I’m watching the princess bride

I mean it has the FGEN but only bothers to bring it north after we all are sleeting. The HRRR has FGEN more spread out which makes sense imo with this setup and then its real band is right on the snow/sleet line

It leaves all its intense precip way down in the warm sector compared to everything else. To my understanding of WAA and FGEN that's not normal.

Nam 3k is am improvement for me (mix line hits me at this panel) but man is it still a certifiably bad outcome. It does the same splotchy precip shield which just won't work out for us even it is colder.

850mb wind map on 18z NAM is far more favorable than its 12z run. As precip overspreads we still have a good westerly component compared to pure south.

Oh I got NO IDEA how FGEN works. Notice how all my good posts are in the 3-5days before a storm range as synoptics is what I know. Though from my video I hope you can apply some of it over to FGEN.

NAM has the intense southern 850 winds remaining further south and west so far in its run. Should buy us some time in regards to ptype.

@Maestrobjwa@bncho Anything that you all want to know in particular?

Is this including or excluding sleet? Not as big of a deal up your way but I'm probably adding 1-3inches of pure ice with the sleet part of this storm.

Man it would be true QDF bomb. Just tons of moisture left to go even after we sleet. Probably near an inch of QPF so another 3 inches of sleet or some amount of freezing rain. Please just once let it be right, though I'd love another tick southeast to get Cvill off the gradient. Still need to decide if I travel up north to NOVA.

Sorry to derail the thread but NWS cut back their expected ice totals a bit

When I crashed out for the 0z Wednesday runs I went to sleep without looking at the Euro and swore off looking at any models till past 12z the next day. I ended having vivid dreams about seeing the mixing line jump north on all the models… huh… maybe I dreamed the future.

I’ll make a video hopefully tonight. I’ll steal one of the lecture halls and use some chalk.

Yep, the Euro is now by far the high end event for me. It even beats out the GFS. Mainly it just has an insanely favorable front end thump and QDF before switching over. Also to the point about some people have been pointing out about ptype maps; I've dug into the Euro a bit and it would have a longer period of snow and then sleet before icing. Though, it still manages to give me some legit freezing rain soundings by the end. Would probably be near the absolute worst case impacts wise. Oh and one last thing, my friend in HS wants our input (he follows the board because of me) as to IAD's total snowfall to win a free lunch. I'm thinking maybe 9.8?

Just a sounding which helps my fears over a massive ice event. This is the sounding a model has for Cvill near the end of its storm I'd love it for a met to confirm this but the sub melt layer is around 3000ft which according to my research would basically mean anything that falls would be sleet no matter how warm the mid levels are.

For me 6z was the first real improvement runs. Unfortunately we are at odds with where we each want the initial thump. I liked how the 6z favored areas south of NOVA more while the 12z shifted it a bit north. Still got time to go, hopefully we can all win with a larger QDF field in general.

My bigger issue with the NAM runs is how dry they are. They don't even get me over 1 qdf while every other model is going 1.5-2in. I think that is a failing of the NAM and not everyone else, the thermals could be related to that with evap cooling. As of now I'm more inclined to believe the HRRR output as it seems more in line with other guidance.

Had my crashout and subsequent mental break the past two days I'm locked in and ready to sleet now! Only conditional is that I cannot for the life of me have a dry slot as that is unequivocal existence that God exists and is evil.

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying.

Don’t worry sometime when every single model from day 7 out shows only us getting 2+ ft with zero deviations we’ll get over a foot of snow again. A bit more seriously is there a reason why anytime we start a trend in the wrong direction it just seems to never flip back? It can’t just be bad luck can it?

Where is your planned hike? I probably will be out and about those same hours taking pictures.

Good to see some positive trends with the 6z suite. Let’s hope they continue for 12z!

Also hey everyone please be mindful of our snow removal/city planning thread. Make sure all relevant storm discussion stays out of here.