SnowenOutThere

Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much.

35 degree 5 inch rainstorm is gonna go so crazy.

Was looking at the models for tomorrow and I think we could be in for a surprise. The setup has 3000+ CAPE on both the NAM and the HRRR (maintains low 70s dewpoints). Additionally, there is a shortwave that nears our region to put us in divergence aloft from 4-6pm west to east. However, this shortwave also appears to draw in a time sensitive increase in our 0-6 shear to 20-30 knots, while that still isn't good for severe storms it opens the door to having some level of organization. To add onto this factor is that the HRRR shows a small lee trough develop during the afternoon hours which causes a decently curved hodograph for the lower levels. To reiterate its nothing insane, but might be a sneaky day for supercellular storms to form and rotate. The HRRR and NAM both show storm relative helicity values for 0-3km of around 100 as well. Typical mid-atl caveats apply (our ML lapse rates suck) and I'm not saying this will be some crazy day, but just that it shouldn't be slept on. @vortex95 would love to know your/any other mets/wannabe mets thoughts. Below is the HRRR and NAM sounding, can see the difference the lee trough makes with the HRRR having that curved hodograph.

Man I should write to my VA state house rep to ask if they could ever make a program like this for my state.

A question I’ve wondered about for a while is if our area always benefits from emls. The tor threat way back in March had a weak one and it kneecapped our cape. It seems that sometimes that temperature increase (or slower rate of decrease) does more harm than it helps.

Under the stratiform rain coming off the cells in southern Fairfax and still get .2+ inch per hour rates.

I think a fun bit of micro climatology played a part in that storm complex. Looking back at radar shows the storm popped up right over Dulles airport around 9pm. In college I learned that the delayed heat release of pavement peaks ~2 hours after the inversion layer sets. Definitely think that the local heat island of Dulles helped make a convective current that finally broke into our high CAPE environment. Now we get to watch the storm spread out through boundaries. Really goes to show how human made heat islands impact the whole area around them.

Was coaching for the IM-meet which is a mile from Dulles and that storm is a crazy lightning producer. Tons of CG strikes with loud thunder.

Agree that it could’ve been supercellular. The interesting thing I saw with the hodographs for yesterday is how the low level winds did show some shear, while of course there was no upper level support. Would make sense you get storms that rotate a bit at the low level then build up and fall down once they reach the high level without any wind shear.

You know I’ve been out hiking in all sorts of weather but I absolutely refuse to hike in either heat or storms. Heat just seems miserable and a bad idea. Storms are nightmarish to me. Was rain hiking Shenandoah white oak canyon last May when a convective cell hit. Being on the side of a mountain covered in trees with the forest floor as one stream of water and lightning going off made for a terrifying experience. Luckily it quickly moved on but I realized without radar or anything I have no clue if a storm pops up and becomes a prolific lightning producer until it’s too late to do anything. That said, rain hiking is awesome when it’s a downpour event and seeing the whole mountain running with water. However, I can’t recommend it unless 1. It’s a synoptic event that relies on upslope for its totals 2. Has no CAPE or convective energy 3. Temperatures are above 50 at lowest (ideally 55-60) and below 70ish degrees 4. Must hike from top to bottom, no parking in river valleys 5. Adding to 1, but upslope is key as it means you don’t need to drive in pouring rain and prevents a wider flood threat 6. I have my rain pants and rain jacket with a towel and change of clothes in the car 7. Bonus, but using soundings to see if peaks/valleys of your hikes are cloud covered or not is fun. Unfortunately, those days are rare. We get maybe 2-4 in spring for Shenandoah (at least the past couple years) and they disappear for summer.

Went through my area beforehand. Seems like it maxed out right over you guys though. Had intense lightning and good winds with it.

Picked up .4 in 10 minutes. Some small branches came down with the wind and now it’s raining with the sun out. Rainbows out too.

Microburst occurring under Fairfax cell. Right on the edge of it.

The outflow boundary from the south that went by Reston had legit convection associated with it. One of the stronger outflow wind gusts with it too.

2000 CAPE and a nearly saturated atmosphere at every level is pretty impressive. Not terrible lapse rates should support development too. There’s even some amount of shear, if weak. Also, would this be an event where warm rain processes matter? I know that we have abnormally warm temps in the lower-mid levels so was wondering.

I want to clarify, it’s not that parameters are even bad. It’s more so a “meh” environment compared to the powderkeg yesterday was. Do agree that outflow boundaries could help out too.

Meh. The parameters are pretty much all worse than yesterday. Should still have the potential for microbursts or storm complexes.

Looks like a boundary collision is about to take place across louden and Fairfax county.

The contrails will cause the storms. Trust the process, the patriots are in control.

My PWS in the backyard has been unable to reach 100 everyday but today.

I’m included even in northern PA!

I think heat lightning rolls off the tongue better than lightning from a distant thunderstorm.

Comparing the soundings from yesterday to today and the whole temperature axis is shifted a bit cooler. On a different note, what a thermodynamic environment for severe weather today. We have 1500 SBCAPE at 6am which is... pretty good. Sadly, like our of all severe weather potential our ML lapse rates probably suck with a value of *checks notes* 9.3 C/km? If we get storms they will have no issue growing up to the tropopause and then crashing back down. I'm up in northern PA so I'll miss out on the fun, but yesterday night had some of the best lightning storms I've had in years. Pouring rain, loud strikes, and constant heat lightning beforehand.

I’ll move our conversation over to banter. I fundamentally agree with you on the doom narrative of climate change or that the environment collapsing is bad. It sets people up to no longer believe in those crisises when the world doesn’t end. Nihilism doesn’t really promote people taking action to cause change. However, I think it’s important to recognize that we both know, you as an expert and myself as a student, that 1.5+ degree C change will be bad. There is no arguing that it is warmer than before the Industrial Revolution. Additionally, there is no arguing that greenhouse gases are responsible for the majority of this increase. Finally, there is no arguing that this increase has, and will continue, to exacerbate increasingly damaging events. The last four sentences aren’t a political narrative, they’re just our scientific understanding of the atmosphere as a fluid body. I recognize that you know more about it than me, so if my logic there was wrong please let me know. The scientific part said, it is frustrating to have people come up to me and say “oh it’s hot because of climate change”. I get that. We need better communication on what it is - an exellerant to extreme patterns - and what it is not - the sole cause of all weather. My last point I want to emphasize as someone who wants to go into environment policy: the ozone hole or acid rain “scares” were extremely detrimental. It is only because of that fear and the groundbreaking legislative effort, both abroad and at home, that we live in a timeline where the ozone hole is a little known fact and confined to the poles. It is because of that effort that acid rain is nonexistent in the US. It is because of that effort and clean air act that our AQI has been in the green despite being trapped under summer ridging. I’ve never known the world my grandparents describe where in summer the sun was dim with smog. It’s important to remember that these are policies that if removed, or gutted, we can and will go back to a more polluted and less healthy planet.

It’s been hot and humid in northern PA. Had storms move through near midnight that were prolific lightning producers. Good old fashioned storm borne of heat and humidity. You could tell the whole atmosphere was ready to go and has reset back to being unstable overnight.