SnowenOutThere

You could even say the biggest 12z runs of the year

Well at the very least the front end thump part…

WAA doesn’t get shredded to hell and manages to hold together to us

At the very least going to be a solid hit on the level (or above) the 12z cmc

Between the gfs and the icon or the gfs and its previous run?

The icon seemed to tick a bit better for our region plus the gfs still looks decent.

Hey I care about this threat but I just don't have weatherbell.

Hey remember you’re still the person who willed us into this event so whatever happens falls on you

Confluence is over Rhode Island vs New Jersey while the Euro has it north east of Boston, still a good shift regardless.

Could you imagine the state of this place if this is the reality? I fear some of our posters may not make it past next week at this rate.

That said the GEFS are now up to a solid .4 areawide mean which isn't entirely terrible, and there are no real outliers giving 4+ inches to throw off the mean

Wonder if we really want this "event" to trend our way considering if it bombs out too far east we possibly get a more GFS type Jan 6th outcome

CMC is gonna be a hit, the confluence over the northeast is Eurolike

Adding onto @LP08 post about the confluence over the northeast, but when messaging @brooklynwx99 about why the GFS sheared out the storm on previous runs they mentioned how it was running into a wall of confluence, so naturally it would have a hard time holding itself together. I think our biggest concern as of now is actually getting less confluence over the northeast so it's able to have precip get to us, right now the concern is more suppression/shearing than cutting. So when watching future model runs I think one of the most important pieces to look at will be where the wall of confluence sets up over the northeast. Here are the runs of the GFS and EURO to make that point

I think it may just get suppressed, there is so much more confluence further southwest than the Euro.

Guys, don't worry about the 6th threat we got classic and unbeatable CFS and Euro combo

Either way a more amped solution would get us some more precip than what the GFS or any strung out solution could give even if we miss part of the WAA.

Ah, the duality of man

Either way I’m just here for flurries and that still looks good

Never a good sign when that’s our failsafe

Maybe we could try to the start two threads trick again from last year @NorthArlington101 can claim that responsibility though.

Maybe we can try to eek into a small event with this one like with the mid Jan storms last year

Why wouldn’t you be feeling good? The past 3 runs of the OP gfs have shown a good 4-6 inch snowstorm at least while the Euro showed an east coast HECS. Additionally the ens even support them, currently this is the best we shouldve felt in years!

Oh the whole presentation was lovely synoptically, just needed the secondary to develop a tiny bit quicker to truly get some insane totals. Luckily we have all the time in the world for it to trend better