SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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Fwiw NAM 3k is slightly colder than the 12z upstairs
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Seems to have a more expansive dry slot which isn’t great
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At hour 60 the sleet line is ever so slightly south (from cutting through fx county to being just south)
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Hell of a way to get .1! As someone too young for the 2014 squall this was a first time thing. Should have a timelapse up later
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That was incredible! Thunder snow, watching the clouds come in, the progression from melted flakes to a snow globe, this may be one of my favorite winter events ever.
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Heard a rumble of thunder, sadly not snowing as the cell that produced it slid to my north. Reminds me a lot of summer
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Remember we only use 10-1 when it shows the most snow
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Is anyone out near Winchester or in that band able to confirm if its 1. actually reaching the ground 2. rain or snow
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Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps.
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The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows.
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Significantly so too, some of the forum even gets fringed
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowenOutThere replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Light snow hour 198 -
Looks more snowy than it’s 12z run so far
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Meanwhile CMC out to hour 72 has a slightly more amped S/w but better confluence than it’s 12z run
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Not horrible verbatim but if it trends any further north it’ll get ugly for most of forum where people live
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The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite
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How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger
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Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north)
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A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind!
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Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then.
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Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3.
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Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off.
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Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff.
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It just needs to not hold onto its huge jump north. If I remember correctly it did some weird stuff yesterday at 18z before coming back into agreement with the other (better) models by 0z
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Almost as notorious as the HRRR’s 48 hour one
